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#1420903 - 06/04/2017 18:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome


This low is forecast to reach TC 2 status and drift around for a while .Just in a favorable position atm as far as shear and dry air ridging but that may all change in a couple of days .

But for now he is going to have a bit of a play abeit a short life off the coast of W.A.

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#1420904 - 06/04/2017 18:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome


Low will drive some moist tropical air from the north back towards the Kimberley and Pilbara coast ,for a couple of days anyway.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1420957 - 07/04/2017 13:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

TC Ernie is born.
Apparently may go to CAT 3 tonight before decaying back down to Cat 1 within the next few days..

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:18 am WST on Friday 7 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 2) was located at 8:00 am AWST near 14.9S
110.5E,
that is 720 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 870 km north northwest of
Exmouth] and moving south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ernie has rapidly developed over open waters and will continue
to strengthen to category 3 intensity and track towards the south today. Over
the weekend development is less likely as the system moves into a less
favourable environment as the system starts moving towards the west-southwest
and should begin weakening.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1420958 - 07/04/2017 14:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

Doing a right hand turn and moving WSW further off the W.A coast after tonight.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1420968 - 07/04/2017 16:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
WOWOWOWOWOW check out the sat image of Ernie. BOMBING away out there. Eye and all.
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#1420969 - 07/04/2017 16:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
That thing is going off its nuts I havn't seen rapid intensification like that for a while CAT 4 forecast for Ernie.
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#1420970 - 07/04/2017 16:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 951
Loc: Sth Hedland
oops sorry WOW it is a Cat 4 now with that distinctive eye, he looks great but with no where to go sadly...


Edited by sswanss (07/04/2017 16:47)
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#1420971 - 07/04/2017 16:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Forecast to go CAT 5 WOW. I am gobsmacked.

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:42 pm WST on Friday 7 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 4) was located at 2:00 pm AWST near
15.3S 110.4E,
that is 740 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 840 km north northwest of
Exmouth] and moving south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie has continued to rapidly develop over open waters
and will continue to strengthen to category 5 intensity and track towards the
south-southwest over the next 24 hours. Ernie will begin to weaken from later
on Saturday or early Sunday as it moves into a less favourable environment.

Gales are not expected on Christmas Island or the WA mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 pm AWST.
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#1420972 - 07/04/2017 16:47 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Ernie the mean B@stard. That is intense development.
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#1420973 - 07/04/2017 16:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 951
Loc: Sth Hedland
NONONO Ernie Come back...
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#1420978 - 07/04/2017 18:01 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
According to the track map it will go from a LOW to CAT 5 in 30 hours. Nasty.
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#1420980 - 07/04/2017 18:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
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#1420987 - 07/04/2017 19:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Port Hedland
Yes just logged on and was like Wozers Earnie. He look beautiful on Sat.

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#1420990 - 07/04/2017 22:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

Nothing like a Cat5 TC cruising around the Indian Ocean.
Amazing shift to high intensity in last 12hours.
Cyclogenesis ingredients coming together at the right time.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:11 pm WST on Friday 7 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 5) was located at 8:00 pm AWST near
15.8S 110.5E,
that is 790 km southeast of Christmas Island [and 780 km north northwest of
Exmouth] and moving south at 8 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie has continued to rapidly intensify over the last
6 hours and has reached category 5 over open waters northwest of WA. Ernie will
continue to intensify as it slowly tracks towards the south and then turn to
the west-southwest early Saturday morning and is expected to begin weakening
from late Saturday or early Sunday.

Gales are not expected on Christmas Island or the WA mainland.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1420994 - 08/04/2017 00:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

Ernie definitely got balls wedging himself between all that dry air. Just sucking in whatever moisture is around ...mainly from the Indon region.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1420995 - 08/04/2017 00:24 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

TC Ernie has had a purple patch in the last 12 hours going from Cat 2 to Cat 5 .

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1420996 - 08/04/2017 00:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3105
Loc: Broome

Talk about living the dream....

Technical report from BOM at 8.30pm WST.

Satcon winds estimated 105 kt sustained
winds. Intensity is set at 110 knots with a small radius of max winds, though
with gales in a more extensive area in southern quadrants.

SSTs are 29-30C and ocean heat content is favourable.

CIMSS continues to show good poleward outflow and upper divergence. CIMSS shear
has further decreased in the last 6 hours to be less than 10 knots.

Over the next 12 to 24 hours, conditions will remain favourable with low vertical wind shear, high moisture and warm SSTs.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1420998 - 08/04/2017 01:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
DanielB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 96
Loc: Bulleen VIC
This season has highlighted how inept the BOM are at predicting cyclones. Several of the early lows of the season were supposed to go off, then fizzled; Debbie was never going to amount to much until - well - she did. Ernie wasn't even a concept until two days ago - IIRC the Western Region outlook before then was for a weak low to move away and dissipate by the end of the week. Even when he started to form they didn't suggest anything past Cat 2.

I'm assuming it's tricky business and a lot of factors need to come together, but it seems like it's more-or-less guesswork this cyclone business amiright?

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#1421000 - 08/04/2017 02:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Model reliance. Guaranteed to get burned. Its proven time and time again.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1421001 - 08/04/2017 06:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Popeye]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Model reliance. Guaranteed to get burned. Its proven time and time again.


Hey Popeye. Question. Looked at Access-R this morning and it looks as though the system is a mere Low Pressure system. Clearly it's not. Any thoughts.

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