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#1421003 - 08/04/2017 08:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3343
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Ernie looks like a real monster. Central pressure 922mb (about 27.22"). Intensity: category 5, sustained winds near the centre of 220 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 315 kilometres per hour. It's a good thing it looks like giving land a wide berth. It must be generating some pretty big waves along the WA NW coast.

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#1421009 - 08/04/2017 10:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Dead flat water in Broome this morning. I wonder if that will change. Midget cyclones may not have the big swell producing power but at CAT 5 you would expect something along here in the next few days. Hope not as it makes work on the water hard.

http://www.broomecam.info/
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1421018 - 08/04/2017 13:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome
TC Ernie technical details 10am WST.

After a spectacular intensification, Ernie has started to weaken. The eye is less well defined and warmer cloud top temperatures surround the centre.

Dvorak:Eye pattern DTs were in the range of 6.5 to 4.5 over the past 6 hours. Time averaged DT was 5.5. Trend is now W-. MET/PAT was 3.5/4.0. FT was 5.5 and CI held at 6.5. Intensity set to 110 knots.

SATCON at 1924 UTC had an intensity of 112 knots [one-minute averaged]. CIMSS
and NESDIS ADT has a CI of 6.3 at 00 UTC. Initial raw T numbers were between 6.0 and 4.5 over the past 6 hours.

Ernie is approaching the boundary of the favourable ocean heat content. SSTs are 29-30C.

There is some evidence [TPW] of drier air starting to impinge on the eastern periphery of the system.

CIMSS winds showed very good poleward outflow with some equatorward outflow.
Good upper divergence was also evident to the south and west of the system. Wind shear at 21z was estimated at NE 5-10 knots.

Ernie should continue to weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours with shear forecast to increase. The presence of drier air may also contribute to the weakening. The system is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity on Monday but gales may persist in southern quadrants due to the pressure gradient associated with a ridge of high pressure to the south.

The system is being steered slowly towards the south due to an upper trough passing to the south. During Saturday a building mid level ridge will steer the system towards the west-southwest.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421019 - 08/04/2017 14:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

Can see the strong wind shear TC Ernie has to deal with to the south.

No wonder hes going to take a Westward track in the next 8 hours towards a more favorable area .
Even then he will still have to deal with some fairly moderate shear especially to his more southern cloud wall.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421043 - 08/04/2017 17:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

TC Ernie still Cat 4 at 3pm WST but the latest data does not look encouraging but for now still living the dream...

After a spectacular intensification, Ernie has started to weaken.

The eye is less well defined and warmer cloud top temperatures surround the centre. Dvorak:Eye pattern DTs were in the range of 4.0 to 5.0 over the past 6 hours.
Ernie is approaching the boundary of the favourable ocean heat content. SSTs are 29-30C.

There is some evidence [TPW] of drier air starting to impinge on the eastern periphery of the system.

CIMSS winds showed very good poleward outflow with some equatorward outflow.
Good upper divergence was also evident to the southwest of the system. Wind
shear at 03 UTC was estimated at NE 10 knots.

Ernie should continue to weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours with shear forecast
to increase. The presence of drier air may also contribute to the weakening. The
system is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity on Monday but gales may persist in southern quadrants due to the pressure gradient associated with a ridge of high pressure to the south. Some of the latest NWP guidance has the system weakening below tropical cyclone intensity as early as Sunday evening.

The system is being steered by a building mid level ridge with the majority of NWP guidance agreeing on a steady west to southwest track.



_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421045 - 08/04/2017 17:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome


That dry air and wind shear is putting the squeezes on TC Ernie..

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421067 - 08/04/2017 23:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

Ernie Cat 3 now after a big day out ...be interesting to see how he is going this time tomorrow.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421069 - 08/04/2017 23:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

TC Ernie biggest cyclone for the season...

Ernie's rapid intensification
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421093 - 09/04/2017 11:53 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

TC Ernie still Cat 3 and starting to track to the West away from the OZ coast.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.9 degrees South, 108.3 degrees East , 770 kilometres south southeast of Christmas Island and 830 kilometres northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie is moving slowly towards the west and is weakening over open waters well to the northwest of WA. Ernie is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength by about Monday evening, although gales could continue on the southern side of the system until later Tueday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421095 - 09/04/2017 12:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

TC Ernie more technical details ...SSTs getting a bit cooler so not good for convection and getting into a area of increasing wind shear tonight .
But Ernie still going to enjoy at least one more day as a severe tropical cyclone and enjoy the ambience of the Indian Ocean while he can..

Ernie is approaching the boundary of the favourable ocean heat content. SSTs are about 28C. CIMSS winds still showed very good poleward outflow. Good upper divergence was also evident to the south of the system. Wind shear at 21 UTC was estimated to be N at around 5-10 knots. Animated TPW shows a decrease in moist air near and around the system.

Shear is forecast to increase and tend more westerly Sunday night - which would increase the system relative shear.

Ernie should continue to weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours. With little change in shear and ocean heat content in the short term, weakening is expected to be initially slow, then become quicker tonight and during tomorrow.

The forecast has the system weakening below tropical cyclone intensity Monday evening, but it could weaken sooner. Due to the pressure gradient associated with a ridge of high pressure to the south, gales may persis to the south of the system for 12 to 24 hours after weakening below tropical cyclone intensity.

The system is being steered by a building mid level ridge with the majority of NWP guidance agreeing on a steady west to southwest track.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421198 - 09/04/2017 23:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

TC Ernie Cat 2 now still heading 19km/hr WSW and moving into cooler waters with dry air being wrapped into its circulation weakening it .

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421199 - 09/04/2017 23:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

Technical info of TC Ernie at 9pm WST.

Ernie is moving over a region of less favourable ocean heat content. SSTs are -27C and are less than 26C on the forecast 24-36h location. Offsetting this influence is the presence of ongoing strong upper level outflow poleward and low-moderate wind shear. Although convection may be renewed in the diurnally favourable period overnight, weakening below TC intensity is forecast within 24h. However gale may persist a little longer on the southern side owing to the synoptic forcing of the ridge to the south.

The system is being steered by a mid level ridge to the south with NWP guidance consistent on a steady west to southwest track.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421248 - 10/04/2017 12:47 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

Ernie just hanging in there as a Cat 1 and still tracking to the WSW.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:39 am WST on Monday 10 April 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Ernie (Category 1) was located at 8:00 am AWST near 18.2S
104.2E,
that is 880 km south of Christmas Island and 1120 km west northwest of Exmouth and moving west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ernie continues to weaken as it moves towards the west southwest over open waters well to the northwest of WA. Ernie is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity during Monday, although gales could continue on the southern side of the system into Tuesday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421251 - 10/04/2017 13:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

Bom Technical details states Ernie is moving to lower SST and going to be shaken up a bit with increasing wind shear .

Ernie is moving over a region of less favourable ocean heat content. SSTs are 27C and are less than 26C on the forecast track. Offsetting this influence is the presence of ongoing strong upper level poleward outflow and upper divergence.

Wind shear is moderate with CIMSS estimating shear at 18 UTC of NW 22 knots. Shear is forecast to increase and so Ernie should weaken below tropical cyclone intensity into the next 6 to 12 hours. Gales may persist a little longer on the southern side owing to the synoptic forcing of the ridge to the south.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421256 - 10/04/2017 13:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 281
Loc: Karratha, WA
Can someone do me a solid and chuck up the link to the wind shear maps? I'm at work so don't have any of my links set up here. Just want to see what this Darwin low is going to come up against. Doing my head in as I can't find any model agreeance on what it's going to do over the next week. Cheers.

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#1421309 - 10/04/2017 23:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

Ernie slowly losing its strength but still saying gales around 40 knots in the SE and SW quadrants.

BOM Tech bulletin

Ernie has weakened below tropical cyclone intensity.

The system was located using visible imagery over the past 6 hours.

The low level circulation centre is exposed with some deep convection to the east and southeast of the centre. Ernie is moving over a region of less favourable ocean heat content. SSTs are 26/27C with increasing wind shear. CIMSS shear at 00 UTC was WNW at 24 knots.
Gales are likely to persist in the SE and SW quadrants until Tuesday due to the pressure gradient with a ridge of high pressure to the south.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421310 - 11/04/2017 00:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

Hi Leelee

Many sites around I use this a bit, easy to use..

Got shear etc click on low and voila..

Cyclone link
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421345 - 11/04/2017 13:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome



TC Ernie well gone now but not forgotten .

He will be remembered as the fastest intensifying cyclone ever within the Australian region..

Within a day Ernie had gone from a tropical low to a Cat4 cyclone and to Cat5 within the next 12 hours.




Picture taken by NASA yesterday of ex Ernie getting a bit of a battering and blown apart as it tracked towards West.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1421350 - 11/04/2017 13:59 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 281
Loc: Karratha, WA
Thankyou DB

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#1421354 - 11/04/2017 14:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome


Hi Leelee

Try this link other one was dodgy. Was a bit tired and scripted wrong.

cyclone site
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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