Looking at the models it seems by next Wednesday the system will either come a little more south towards Darwin or stay of the coast to the north. It will all depend on the building ridge and its timing and a weak trough that may have an influence on the system to the south.
Either way the low should move generally south westerly towards the north Kimberley in about 4 days time if all goes well.
Apparently not much moisture infeed happening because of lack of monsoonal flow so it will remain small not matter where it ends up. But SSTs still very good for build up of convection to keep the system circulating and intensifying .
Dry air off the coast of the West Kimberley will definitely hammer the low if it gets off the coast into Friday or Saturday of next week.Seems like there will be a few factors which will determine this systems ultimate fate in the long term anyway.
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain