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#1421717 - 18/04/2017 16:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Loving the rain. Lets see if this low can spin up like the last one. Found out from BOM that the last low that hit here did get to cyclone and they upgraded it to a cyclone at 10am. Showed up on radar and went Boo! Lol. Dont think this one will. But loving the rain none the less

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#1421763 - 19/04/2017 15:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 324
Loc: Broome, WA
Both EC and GFS hinting at something similar to last low in a week or so... last tease of the season I guess.

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#1421834 - 20/04/2017 11:41 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Yes if it all lines up within the next week the low once formed up north of Darwin should push towards the north Kimberley coast and intensify .

Long way atm but maybe good potential to make a strong low or even TC status if it holds together itself and gets some good circulation going.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1421867 - 20/04/2017 19:24 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
GFS typically flogs it as an intense system. EC seems to like it up around NT but weaken it over WA. TC Quang in 2015 went to CAT 4 April 28-May1st so it still has potential for this time of year. I'm saying another Fizz. Will pump now I have said that.
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#1421920 - 21/04/2017 17:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
croc crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2007
Posts: 183
Loc: Maningrida, Arnhem Land, NT
I'll be keeping an eye on how this develops over the weekend. Looks like it may have an impact on my location around late Monday and through Tuesday of next week. That last Low dropped over 8" of rain in my bucket. Don't really want too much more of the same again.

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#1421924 - 21/04/2017 18:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah Croc Crew. Will make it hard to get around leading up to the dry season for you guys. Best of luck.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1421947 - 22/04/2017 08:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Popeye]
croc crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2007
Posts: 183
Loc: Maningrida, Arnhem Land, NT
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Yeah Croc Crew. Will make it hard to get around leading up to the dry season for you guys. Best of luck.


LOL. Unfortunately, getting bogged, or recovering bogged vehicles is a weekly occurrence for me at the moment.

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#1421958 - 22/04/2017 11:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome
Looking at the models it seems by next Wednesday the system will either come a little more south towards Darwin or stay of the coast to the north. It will all depend on the building ridge and its timing and a weak trough that may have an influence on the system to the south.

Either way the low should move generally south westerly towards the north Kimberley in about 4 days time if all goes well.

Apparently not much moisture infeed happening because of lack of monsoonal flow so it will remain small not matter where it ends up. But SSTs still very good for build up of convection to keep the system circulating and intensifying .

Dry air off the coast of the West Kimberley will definitely hammer the low if it gets off the coast into Friday or Saturday of next week.Seems like there will be a few factors which will determine this systems ultimate fate in the long term anyway.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422087 - 24/04/2017 20:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
EC still hanging on to some hope with a little poleward movement to the North of Broome bringing it closer to the WA coast. I highly doubt anything will eventuate from it but we just have to hope as something may miraculously surprise. Still warm in Broome. Maybe the cranking Easterlies from this LOW to our North might bring a cooling wind regime into place and kick off the dry season.
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#1422551 - 30/04/2017 19:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It appears Cyclone Greg has popped up out in the Xmas Cocos islands region. Season still kicking on, just when you think it's done. Expected to get to CAT 2.
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#1422557 - 30/04/2017 22:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Yep saw that but thought it was out of OZ jurisdiction .

Ok so game on again..Yay
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422559 - 30/04/2017 23:01 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

He snuck up on us.


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422560 - 30/04/2017 23:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Bom Technical info on TC Greg.

Not too much of a beat up really.

Low to upper level shear is currentkly 5 to 10 knots [low] and forecast to remain that way in the short term. However, low to mid level shear is forecast to increase Monday, which will also help the entrainment of dry air. Thus, a strengthening trend is forecast for the short term. Due to the small size, the system may reach category 2 by early Tuesday.
A weakening trend is forecast to start during Monday. However, with light upper winds forecast along the track of the system for the next 5 or so days, after the forecast weakening on Tuesday,there remains a moderate chance of the system being a tropical cyclone.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422590 - 01/05/2017 14:59 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Ex TC Greg BOM technical info 10am .

The environment is forecast to further deteriorate during Monday as shear increases and with the possible entrainment of dry air. Thus, further weakening is likely.

With steering being dominated by a high pressure ridge to the south, Greg is forecast to continue to move to the west. Model guidance is consistent in this forecast track as well as a weakening trend in the intensity.



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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1422591 - 01/05/2017 15:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

TC Greg didn't quite make it to a whole day as a Tropical cyclone .

Shear out west has got the better of him.

But better to have lived for a short time than not to have lived at all....I think ? frown


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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