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#1397264 - 14/12/2016 20:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23475
Loc: Townsville
Hahahahahaha Low right over Broome

Welcome to the Travdog factor mate. You go away, and your place gets smashed.

Thats legit my life.
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#1397268 - 14/12/2016 21:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7694
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Hahaha believe it when I see it. Model 10 days out. I will go the opposite and say sit me in a boat 500kms out of Exmouth and my chances.are probably just as good to be right.
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#1397269 - 14/12/2016 21:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 185
Loc: Port Hedland
Haha Popeye. This is the worse part the 10 days or more before. Lets split the difference and call Karatha! Looking forward to Sundays models.

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#1397334 - 15/12/2016 17:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7694
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Models are so all over the place with this one (which kind of reminds me of the past). Latest has it heading out to sea as a fish. Might just have to wait until a LOW actually forms to then follow what is going to happen. All the model chasing going on in social media has sent people in Broome into a frenzy thinking a TC is going to bear down on us where as it may drift 600kms to our north and to Zilch. Kind of sucks if it doesn't as the Xmas rush with tourism is needed desperately this year and if peoples early holiday decisions are influenced by claims a TC is gong to hit it will be a bit sad to see happen.
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#1397335 - 15/12/2016 17:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7694
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Be interesting to see what EC comes up with this arvo. GFS and Access and CMC seem to have it well north and steaming West well offshore.
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#1397420 - 16/12/2016 20:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 40
Loc: Port Hedland
Popeye sorry I find it difficult to accessthe EC model. Are the models starting to agree with each other?

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#1397478 - 17/12/2016 17:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 185
Loc: Port Hedland
The BOM now has a moderate chance for Tuesday.....long days ahead. Looking forward to it, just as long as my Dad can fly in on Friday.

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#1397499 - 17/12/2016 20:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7694
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It seems EC is stand alone model forming it up nth of the Pilbara and swirling it around as a low end TC. The others GFS CMC and Access seem to form it more up the top end with some skirting the coast off Broome whilst others have it moving inland over the nth kimberley. Still basically a Hotch botch of uncertainty. Sounds about right to be honest.
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#1397551 - 18/12/2016 13:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7694
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Wonder if it can do a cyclone Laurence. Skirting the nth kimberley crossing twice
Kuri bay and 80 mile. Access seems to think so. Whether it's a cat 5 twice on crossings would be questionable.
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#1397558 - 18/12/2016 14:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 185
Loc: Port Hedland
Cyclone Laurence was just before our time, we arrived in the January after. I remember watching it though. I am very muc looking forward to it forming. Would be incredible to have it hit in to locations as a strong TC. It is hot in Hedland today!

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#1397564 - 18/12/2016 14:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7694
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
The low up under Indonesia is starting the slow winding motion. Models are split between that one and a new one above the North Kimberley. Ec seems to want to merge them which kind of doesn't sound right. Be good to watch this Indonesian one to see just how much it develops and how quickly and if it robs the flow into the secondary one. Interesting times ahead. Anything is possible. Definitely looks primed for something.
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#1397577 - 18/12/2016 16:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 185
Loc: Port Hedland
Agreed. "Something is in the air as they say" 😄

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#1397622 - 18/12/2016 20:29 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
topmick Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/01/2011
Posts: 13
Loc: Buderim, SE / QLD
I'm currently working at Cape Lambert (Rio) & quite a few contractors are flying out for Xmas early - just in case.

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#1397643 - 18/12/2016 22:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: topmick]
Pistol D Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/01/2007
Posts: 21
Loc: Karratha
When are they flying out topmick?

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#1397648 - 18/12/2016 23:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Town&country Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/11/2014
Posts: 52
Loc: Perth - Adelaide
I fly out from West Angelas (rio) on Thursday and fly back in on the 27th of December, hopefully might get some good rain out of it.
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#1397654 - 19/12/2016 07:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17144
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
EC and CMC still favour a TC development from out wide with CMC showing a crossing near Broome.
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#1397660 - 19/12/2016 07:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Pistol D]
topmick Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/01/2011
Posts: 13
Loc: Buderim, SE / QLD
Originally Posted By: Pistol D
When are they flying out topmick?


Karratha, flights were booked for Thursday but were changed to Wed.

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#1397703 - 19/12/2016 15:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 206
Loc: Karratha, WA
So my work's SSU update has the low developing in the Timor Sea today, tracking SW parallelish to the coast. If it heads east too soon, heading inland between Broome and 80mile it will most likely stay below TC strength but more time in SW or west direction looks the goods for intensification. No clear suggestions on crossing points as yet for this scenario. Hmmm, easterly of Karratha crossings always means we miss out on the rain. Knowing my luck this will be our chance for the year and i'll miss it frown

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#1397709 - 19/12/2016 15:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 948
Loc: Sth Hedland
Really Weathergrrl??? the only chance,the season is just started and this is an early start compared to most other seasons,So just sit back and relax & let's just give this season a go hey,after all it's only early day's.


Edited by sswanss (19/12/2016 15:52)
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#1397710 - 19/12/2016 15:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7694
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Read the latest nw cyclone outlook. Kimberley low is buggered and the one to watch now is the one above karrachi then slingshoting to the coast. Interesting days ahead.
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