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#1419246 - 30/03/2017 00:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
exodus Offline
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Registered: 28/12/2007
Posts: 584
Loc: Mount Louisa, Townsville
I personally don't anymore, because it won't be till we are so screwed it's not funny will the politicians finally do something, a heavy drenching for a few days would just give them an out and it will be ignored for another 5 years.

The time for action is now(5 years ago really)

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#1419293 - 30/03/2017 06:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
drivenunder Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 1989
Loc: Kewarra Beach, Cairns
What can pollies do Exodus, that will get the dams filled?
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#1419296 - 30/03/2017 06:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 314
Loc: Salisbury
Went to bed with the rain gauge reading 14.2mm from yesterday's couple of showers, wake to find it reading 45.8mm this morning.

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#1419331 - 30/03/2017 08:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: drivenunder]
Wezza Offline
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Registered: 15/01/2008
Posts: 646
Loc: North Ward, Townsville. Toll, ...
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
What can pollies do Exodus, that will get the dams filled?
Allocate funds to build Hells Gate Dam.

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#1419342 - 30/03/2017 08:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

GEM Op run suggesting a tropical low undertaking cyclogenesis in the Coral Sea. GEPS supporting a tropical low developing. At this stage, only GEM is suggesting this.
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#1419499 - 30/03/2017 12:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
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Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2196
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Still a lot of heat in all the right places to wind up another one. I feel suspicious
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#1419654 - 30/03/2017 15:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Wezza]
Mick10 Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24807
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Wezza
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
What can pollies do Exodus, that will get the dams filled?
Allocate funds to build Hells Gate Dam.


plenty of water for Tsv in the Burdekin, a second pipeline would be cheaper and faster to build.
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September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1419672 - 30/03/2017 15:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Wezza Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2008
Posts: 646
Loc: North Ward, Townsville. Toll, ...
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: Wezza
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
What can pollies do Exodus, that will get the dams filled?
Allocate funds to build Hells Gate Dam.


plenty of water for Tsv in the Burdekin, a second pipeline would be cheaper and faster to build.

Whatever works Mick. The bottom line is, something needs to be done.

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#1420172 - 31/03/2017 11:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
It would appear that TC Debbie was not related to the MJO which is apparently indiscernible ATM.

Has anybody any idea what influences TC Debbie is attributable to? I am amazed how we suddenly went from what could have been another season without a TC in the Coral Sea to tropical cyclogenesis so quickly and without the influence of the MJO.

What other factors are at play here?
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#1420173 - 31/03/2017 11:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4592
There's a number of other factors that can also help trigger cyclogenesis including equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin Waves, enhanced vorticity near the northern tips of wind changes, etc although I didn't check to see if any of these were present just before TC Debbie formed.

Even just a seemingly random cluster of thunderstorms without a strong presence of the above influences can sometimes eventually form a TC if all the necessary ingredients are present (low shear, warm SST's, etc).

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#1420174 - 31/03/2017 11:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Cyclone_Tim_ Offline
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Registered: 19/02/2017
Posts: 47
Loc: Mackay
Hey snowy hibbbo with the possible upcoming cyclone do you have any idea where it could go?

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#1420182 - 31/03/2017 12:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Thanks Ken.

If you happen to find out more can you please let us know.

I got this from the BOM Weekly Tropical Climate note:

"Debbie formed along a monsoon trough, which has been a persistent feature over northern Australia and adjacent waters during the last week. The environment in which Debbie formed was conducive for cyclone development, with a particularly favourable broadscale wind field apparent to the north and south of the system. This allowed Debbie to intensify significantly and become a large tropical cyclone, by Australian standards".

It's just that you get use to the MJO being a major player in global TC genesis and when its not I want go looking for an emerging/shifting influence.
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#1420193 - 31/03/2017 14:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Okay so let explain some stuff about the last few weeks of MJO.
So as you can see MJO on the RMM index is weak for the last two weeks.


But is this really the case?
On the OLR index of a 7 day MJO only observations chart


Okay so that shows MJO waspresent in the duration of Debbie.
Here's some more OLR data.


World OLR Totals and anomalies in the week before Debbie (during it's tropical low status and subsequent cyclogenesis). You can see moist OLR anomalies across the Coral Sea and the rest of Australia, showing that OLR anomalies had an effect on Ex TC Debbie and MJO was present over Australia.


And OLR totals and anomalies during this week and Debbie. You can see Debbie in the Coral Sea quite easily (and also Ex TC Caleb)

So MJO (albeit not very strong) provided the moisture for Debbie. The main reason Debbie persisted was an abundance of moisture and lack of shear, which the former has been the main issue with the Australian cyclone season. Amount of tropical lows, moisture and SSTs have been fine for cyclogenesis, just not shear.
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#1420222 - 31/03/2017 17:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Terrific - thanks for the detailed explanation.

Any thoughts for the next couple of months?
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#1420248 - 31/03/2017 20:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Multiversity]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
Terrific - thanks for the detailed explanation.

Any thoughts for the next couple of months?

The immediate outlook is for good moisture over the next two to three weeks.
These are the POAMA Seasonal forecasts for rainfall anomalies.

April


May


June

(Experimental Only, do not interpret as BOM operational product)
POAMA shows very high moisture in the Coral Sea in April, with it decreasing over May and average conditions in June. This tends to happen in the lead up to the Dry Season.

SSTAs in the Coral Sea on POAMA.

In April, it's very warm except for a less warm pool in the Center created by Ex TC Debbie.
And in May and June, it cools down significantly. But climatology tells me it's gonna be more gradual and might take months to cool down.

I think Cyclones are a real possibility this April and possibly into Early May. Shear is going to be the main hinderence to any potential cyclogenesis.
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#1420251 - 31/03/2017 20:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Cyclone_Tim_]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Cyclone_Tim_
Hey snowy hibbbo with the possible upcoming cyclone do you have any idea where it could go?

At the moment, only GEM is forecasting it. And it looks to go over the Cape York as a possible Cat 1 TC.


And sorry all for my posting of charts. Hope they can be of use!


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (31/03/2017 20:51)
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#1420255 - 31/03/2017 21:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Bello Weather Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 358
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Awesome and much appreciated posts, many thanks smile
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#1420258 - 31/03/2017 21:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 335
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
With the week or more of south easterly's forecast I think the Coral Sea will be cooled a bit.

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#1420293 - 01/04/2017 00:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1746
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Cyclone_Tim_
Hey snowy hibbbo with the possible upcoming cyclone do you have any idea where it could go?

At the moment, only GEM is forecasting it. And it looks to go over the Cape York as a possible Cat 1 TC.


And sorry all for my posting of charts. Hope they can be of use!


Loving the Charts and Info Snowy and despite previous disagreements on particular stuff, Ken's detailed info as well.

Debbie just had a conglomeration of conditions that all came together like an Orchestra, low shear here, MJO there, the edge of the Monsoon trough, plenty of moisture and a mass of warm ocean surface water for fuel.

One thing I don't know about and would love to learn more about form those with more nous is the apparent lack of steering for this system which led Debbie to work like an angle grinder on those places she crossed along the coast.

Been through a few big ones before, but I just can't imagine a 10-12 hour crossing under such sustained strength.

It must of seemed like purgatory for those stuck under this system over such a long period of time.

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#1420347 - 01/04/2017 14:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4592
Thanks marakai. I wasn't following it every day but from what I did see, the main steering influence for a lot of its journey was a midlevel ridge that built up to its south and steered it in a general WSW direction.
There were some complications though such as a shortwave trough that arced up over SE QLD and relaxed part of that ridge which allowed Debbie wobble a bit to the south at one stage.

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