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#1420351 - 01/04/2017 14:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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I also did notice this morning that the EC ensemble was currently suggesting 40 to 50% probabilities of a TC off northwest Australia from around a week's time from now and lower probabilities (10 to 30%) off the northern Australian coast.

The multiweek 4-week version of the ensemble currently has a faint signal out in the Coral Sea through the middle of this month - too uncertain atm to tell what'll happen with that one.


Edited by Ken Kato (01/04/2017 14:49)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1420356 - 01/04/2017 15:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
marakai Offline
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Registered: 05/01/2006
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Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Thanks marakai. I wasn't following it every day but from what I did see, the main steering influence for a lot of its journey was a midlevel ridge that built up to its south and steered it in a general WSW direction.
There were some complications though such as a shortwave trough that arced up over SE QLD and relaxed part of that ridge which allowed Debbie wobble a bit to the south at one stage.


Yeah the ridge was fairly evident early on, you could see the southern most bands being pushed back to the north along the coastline at one stage there, but what do you think was responsible for the forward speed of the system ?, It was moving about 6-10 kmh most of the time and it was almost as if the only thing moving it was the coriolis effect. I don't think I've ever seen such a consistently slow moving system.

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#1420470 - 02/04/2017 14:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Lani Offline
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Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 994
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Final run on the BOM Weather maps looks interesting with both those systems appearing to move towards Oz.

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#1420494 - 02/04/2017 18:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
MangroveJack70 Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Cyclone_Tim_
Hey snowy hibbbo with the possible upcoming cyclone do you have any idea where it could go?

At the moment, only GEM is forecasting it. And it looks to go over the Cape York as a possible Cat 1 TC.


And sorry all for my posting of charts. Hope they can be of use!


It's very much appreciated Snowy. Just another layer of detail that I look forward to better understanding.

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#1420504 - 02/04/2017 19:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
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Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Glad to be of assistance, marakai and MangroveJack.

MV's GFS MJO OLR maps show weak MJO continuing.
GEFS 200hPa Velocity Potential Map seems to think MJO might return over the next two weeks, I'm a little more doubtful. By the time MJO comes back around, Queensland will be transitioning to the dry season.


Only GEM is progging a Coral Sea Cyclone ATM. It's track record is pretty poor.
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#1420557 - 03/04/2017 10:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Bello Weather]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Bello Weather
Awesome and much appreciated posts, many thanks smile

Cheers.
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
With the week or more of south easterly's forecast I think the Coral Sea will be cooled a bit.

I don't know about that. Latest POAMA shows mostly very warm waters for the rest of April.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (03/04/2017 10:30)
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#1420587 - 03/04/2017 13:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
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Loc: Brisbane Inner West
ACCESSG was showing something a week out in the CS but that is gone in the latest run. How does the NW WA/NT modelling fit with Snowy Hibbo's MJO explanation for TC Debbie. I would have thought the MJO would have moved on in a weeks time.
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#1420638 - 03/04/2017 19:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Multiversity]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
ACCESSG was showing something a week out in the CS but that is gone in the latest run. How does the NW WA/NT modelling fit with Snowy Hibbo's MJO explanation for TC Debbie. I would have thought the MJO would have moved on in a weeks time.
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I seriously don't know. Latest POAMA scan for the ER, Kelvin and MJO waves (OLR) didn't show anything of interest. GFS 200 CHI anomalies point to some high anomalies around the region.
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#1420652 - 03/04/2017 22:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
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Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Interesting, very interesting.

Please keep us informed if you uncover anything.

On another subject I came across this article on Atmospheric Rivers:

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v10/n3/full/ngeo2894.html

I would assume that these phenomenon are not an aspect of the Eastern Australian weather regime.

Was the recent Peru weather extreme potentially one of these AR events?
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#1420655 - 03/04/2017 23:08 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Atmospheric rivers have been a focus for research for some years now and can often be seen pretty well on satellite water vapour imagery and models as long plumes of moisture extending from low latitudes to higher latitudes.

One of the more well-known examples is the Pineapple Express which transports lots of moisture from the Hawaiian region to the west coast of the US and dumps it there as heavy rain (or snow at higher elevations) usually in winter.

They've also provided the moisture that's been responsible for significant flooding in areas such as the UK.

It's typically the midlatitudes that cop the heavy precip at their polar ends aided by suitable midlatitude frontal systems rather than areas like Peru (where the much warmer than normal waters off their coast are contributing a lot of moisture for the recent flooding there).

In the Australian region, I classify things like NW cloudbands (that often occur in winters of La Nina years and end up delivering widespread rainfall to SE Australia) as a form of atmospheric river.

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#1420671 - 04/04/2017 08:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
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Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Brilliant. Thanks Ken.

So much to learn....
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#1420684 - 04/04/2017 09:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Multiversity]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
Interesting, very interesting.

Please keep us informed if you uncover anything.

On another subject I came across this article on Atmospheric Rivers:

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v10/n3/full/ngeo2894.html

I would assume that these phenomenon are not an aspect of the Eastern Australian weather regime.

Was the recent Peru weather extreme potentially one of these AR events?

Peru is in the tropics and it is subject to tropical convection. Usually only places in the mid-latitudes get atmospheric rivers.

You can see a atmospheric river heading towards California/West Coast USA right now on this Precipitable water chart.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/bTPW/TPW_Animation.html?product=GLOBAL_TPW
And you can see where it gets it's moisture from.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (04/04/2017 09:49)
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#1420686 - 04/04/2017 10:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
georgiaanne Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/03/2017
Posts: 1
House Call Doctor is still running throughout parts of QLD that have been affected by Cyclone Debbie. So if there are families out there who need a doctor after-hours, but their regular GP is closed, at least House Call Doctor can come to you for urgent situations. House Call Doctor bulk-bills for families with Medicare too. Keep safe on the roads pls everyone!

https://housecalldoctor.com.au/

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#1420687 - 04/04/2017 10:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 458
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Still hoping for a strong monsoonal burst to give us some good rain....or a tropical cyclone to the north of cardwell.
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#1420689 - 04/04/2017 10:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 72
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Very powerful graphic Snowy Hibbo.

I will look out for more weather related disaster news coming out of the west coast US in the coming weeks.

I read where the authors of the Nature paper are looking for possible connections of ARs to the MJO and Rossby waves - any thoughts on this?

Will be interesting to see how they react to increasing atmospheric water vapour with warming.
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#1420713 - 04/04/2017 15:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 72
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
The latest BOM Weekly Tropical Climate Note just received.

Reference to MJO non-involvement in TC Debbie is interesting.
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#1420717 - 04/04/2017 16:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Seems BOM is observing MJO off the RMM index. Foolish mistake. I provided evidence that MJO took part (not fully responsible though) in the cyclogenesis of Ex TC Debbie, using the BOM's own data. BOM tropical forecasts tend to be not great, but certainly not bad. They just need to look a bit more.

That's why I get my MJO advice from mets like Mike Ventrice and Phil Klotzbach, as well as my own research.
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#1420718 - 04/04/2017 17:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 72
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Good to know Snowy Hibbo - I'd be keen to get your ongoing outlook on the MJO especially on its approach to the Australian region if you are continuously monitoring it.
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#1420720 - 04/04/2017 17:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Lani]
whethertraveller Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 70
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Lani
Final run on the BOM Weather maps looks interesting with both those systems appearing to move towards Oz.



I hope that doesn't reach us, so much devastation already. I've spent a terrifying few days in the Logan area hoping the flooding from the Logan River wouldn't reach the house. Thankfully it didn't quite make it. Too many have lost so much in Qld and northern NSW. Death toll now 8 and 3 still missing, tragic.

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#1420802 - 05/04/2017 17:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Multiversity]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
Good to know Snowy Hibbo - I'd be keen to get your ongoing outlook on the MJO especially on its approach to the Australian region if you are continuously monitoring it.


Yeah I watch MJO for snow predictions from this point onwards but happy to post if I see something for the tropics. Which won't be much after this month.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (05/04/2017 17:54)
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