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#1420805 - 05/04/2017 18:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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The remains of ex-Debbie have also been causing lots of drama on New Zealand's North Island as expected with floods and landslides.

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#1420830 - 05/04/2017 21:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Hi Ken, have you got any links to reports on the damage? Is it the North Island in particular that tends to cop the impact from ex-TCs and ECLs.
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#1420835 - 05/04/2017 23:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Multiversity]
cold@28 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2011
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Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
Hi Ken, have you got any links to reports on the damage? Is it the North Island in particular that tends to cop the impact from ex-TCs and ECLs.

Just had a quick search
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealan...rth-island.html
Interesting video at the start
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#1420846 - 06/04/2017 08:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Good link cold@28. I mentioned seismic hazards to some friends contemplating emigrating to NZ north island, but in light of this I will point out flood and geotech hazards as well.

Any records on percentages of ex Coral Sea TCs which go on to impact NZ?
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#1420866 - 06/04/2017 10:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
cold@28 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2038
Loc: Chillagoe
Be interesting to see how many ex cyclones end up in NZ overall. Must be a heck of a lot! Our east coast lows would be affecting them too. Gorgeous place, but what a place to live.
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Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm
-------
YTD: 812.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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#1420867 - 06/04/2017 10:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
and apparently Atmospheric Rivers as well.

Anyone got info on ARs, TCs and ECLs impact on NZ?
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#1420873 - 06/04/2017 11:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Multiversity]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
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Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
and apparently Atmospheric Rivers as well.

Anyone got info on ARs, TCs and ECLs impact on NZ?

According to NIWA (One of NZ's leading weather research agencies), just over one tropical storm affects NZ's North Island every year, with ENSO and other factors also contributing.
https://www.niwa.co.nz/publications/wa/v...opical-cyclones

Important Note: The article comes from over 15 years ago. Use with care!

As for ECLs, they have stay close to the Australian Eastern Seaboard to be classified as an ECL. The Tasman Low classification apply for all lows (except ECLs) in the Tasman and these often affect NZ.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (06/04/2017 11:54)
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#1420891 - 06/04/2017 15:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Multiversity Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Snowy Hibbo - this is very useful information to have.

Cheers
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#1420896 - 06/04/2017 16:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
TSVWeatherNerd Offline
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Registered: 09/07/2012
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Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion (from NOAA)

Last Updated: 04.04.17 Valid: 04.05.17 - 04.18.17
The MJO remained weak during the past week based on diagnostic tools including the CPC velocity potential-based index and the RMM index. The low frequency state, with enhanced convection across the Maritime Continent and far eastern Pacific, continues to be a major influence on anomalous convection throughout the global tropics. Dynamical model forecasts of the RMM index maintain a weak MJO signal during the next week, though there are some models indicating a signal over the West Pacific. The signal over the West Pacific is likely related to predicted tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific and near Australia. Additionally, some observational tools indicate the presence of a robust equatorial Rossby Wave over the Maritime Continent. Therefore, the MJO contribution to anomalous convection across the global tropics and effects on the extratropical circulation are expected to be minimal.

No new tropical cyclones developed during the past week. During the next 2 weeks, tropical cyclone formation odds are likely to be enhanced northwest of Australia, over the Coral Sea, and over the South Pacific. The signal in the South Pacific is especially high during the earliest portions of the outlook period. The signal over the South Pacific, shifts slightly west during the 2 week period, with the Coral Sea. Northwest of Australia, the signal peaks late in Week-1, with lowered confidence for a Week-2 formation, but the threat straddles the break in the period.

The favored areas of anomalous rainfall across the global tropics during the next two weeks are based on consensus among the CFS, GFS, and ECMWF models along with the low frequency state and the potential impacts of the equatorial Rossby Wave, currently over the Maritime Continent. During Week-1, enhanced (suppressed) convection is likely over the Maritime Continent (central Pacific) where the low-frequency state and the equatorial Rossby Wave are likely to constructively interfere. The wet signal over the Maritime Continent is forecast to spread westward through Week-2, while the dry signal in the central Pacific is likely to be reduced in coverage from Week-1, but still present, as it is related to the low-frequency signal. Heavy rains are likely over the eastern Pacific and northwest South America, related to the low-frequency pattern.

Forecasts over Africa are made in consultation with CPCs international desk, and can represent local-scale conditions in addition to global-scale variability.


Edited by TSVWeatherNerd (06/04/2017 16:40)
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#1420897 - 06/04/2017 16:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: TSVWeatherNerd]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4044
Loc: El Arish
Maybe this was quite pertinent?

Originally Posted By: Dan101
Feature in today's Daily Mercury re lack of activity this season...

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#1420950 - 07/04/2017 11:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Veejay Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/03/2014
Posts: 19
Loc: Emerald QLD
Invest 95s sprung up rather quickly. Could be interesting.

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#1421208 - 10/04/2017 05:52 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Cloudz Offline
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Registered: 16/10/2010
Posts: 1645
Loc: Southport QLD
Can anyone tell me if TC Cook, which is about to hit New Caledonia from the east, is likely to continue east and pose a threat to QLD ?

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#1421209 - 10/04/2017 06:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Cloudz]
Dan101 Offline
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Registered: 03/03/2011
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Loc: Mackay, QLD
There is a 99.999999% chance that Cook won't affect Australia.

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#1421219 - 10/04/2017 08:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
SBT Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14151
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Pretty much as Dan101 said. Practically zero chance it will come this way. Mind you a sloppy little cat 1 crossing around Ingham would do no end of good for Townsville's 3rd failed wet season in a row.
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#1421242 - 10/04/2017 11:49 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Cloudz]
TSVWeatherNerd Offline
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Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 930
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Mundingb...
Originally Posted By: Cloudz
Can anyone tell me if TC Cook, which is about to hit New Caledonia from the east, is likely to continue east and pose a threat to QLD ?


If it continues east, I daresay it will struggle with crossing South America and then Africa before it gets any where near us.

If it continues west, nah...ain't gonna happen. See that low pressure system down off the south coast. It's moving east and will take Cook off to the SE with it.
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#1421245 - 10/04/2017 12:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4277
Loc: Brisbane
Actually, and this probably belongs in another thread, TC Cook is forecast to do a nice little Fujiwhara dance with the approaching low and cause further misery to our friends in NZ who are still recovering from ex-Debbie.

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#1421307 - 10/04/2017 23:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Cloudz Offline
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Registered: 16/10/2010
Posts: 1645
Loc: Southport QLD
Whoops - my mistake - I meant moving west, not east wink Thanks for the replies.

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#1422338 - 27/04/2017 09:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4277
Loc: Brisbane
Most recent EC has a late season TC showing up in the Coral Sea at the end of its run with a big high sitting underneath to send it towards the QLD coast.

No support from other models though.

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#1422341 - 27/04/2017 09:25 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4429
ACCESS-G is also trying to form something out there.

Neither model has it actually hitting the coast before the end of their respective 10 day forecast periods though.

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#1422346 - 27/04/2017 10:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4277
Loc: Brisbane
With a large and very strong high pressure system sitting to the South I would assume that the only way any tropical low would move is to the West.

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