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#1394049 - 19/11/2016 10:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 458
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
I believe Broome is pretty dry on average, but Townsville may have trees but you should see it lately, brown brown brown, Brownsville is well earnt. Anyone got some pics to post of how it looks atm.
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2017]: 5.1mm (Ave 130.4mm)
Mar 2017: 246.3mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 912.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1394055 - 19/11/2016 16:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23527
Loc: Townsville
My front lawn

Only able to hand water for 4 hours a week

_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1394085 - 19/11/2016 22:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1981
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
There is an accurate rule of thumb when it comes to rain events for places like Townsville and other areas along the coast like where I live.

If the SOI is low, then it will not rain.

If the BOM says there will be no rain, there will be no rain.

If there is an El Nino, there will be no rain.

If there are showers about, there will be no rain.

If there is storms about, there will be no rain.

If there is a La Nina, there will be no rain.

If there is a cyclone hovering 20km off the coast there will be no rain.

You can sort of get the drift grin grin

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#1394088 - 19/11/2016 23:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 399
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
How true. Doesn't matter what the forecast says, how threatening the sky looks or how encouraging the radar looks. When it comes to rain I don't believe it will happen until it actually does. Decades of watching the weather in Townsville has taught me this.
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Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1394099 - 20/11/2016 08:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1363
Loc: Mareeba
Hahaha, I feel your pain guys, the same rule of thumb applies here. I live in Mareeba and have had a grand total of 460mm this year and I have been lucky. Biboohra, a town about 5kms away from my house, has only had 370mm of their average 950mm.
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2017 Daily Obs

Mareeba
MTD: 1.8mm
YTD: 733.4mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm


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#1394163 - 21/11/2016 09:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Island viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/04/2010
Posts: 241
Loc: Eimeo Qld 4740
I notice that the low north of New Caledonia is in the 'shadow' of the overlay satellite shots on Navy/NRLTC. Does no one think it has any potential to get itself together?
_________________________
Eimeo Point, Mackay, Qld

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#1394165 - 21/11/2016 10:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1179
Loc: Charters Towers
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
My front lawn

Only able to hand water for 4 hours a week



Come on Trav, what about mowing your lawn mate.

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#1394508 - 24/11/2016 14:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 458
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Let's have some fun. Answer the following questions. When will the first cyclone form in the coral sea or when will the first cyclone move in to our area and secondly when do you think the first landfall occur if at all and where. Reply with your guesstimations. Mods please relocate this if required.
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2017]: 5.1mm (Ave 130.4mm)
Mar 2017: 246.3mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 912.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1394591 - 25/11/2016 17:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1499
Loc: Kingaroy
Depends what the SAM does I think.

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#1394612 - 26/11/2016 02:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
In response to rainthisway's comp
First cyclone form in the coral sea - Probably March 13th
First cyclone move in to our area - Maybe one from the NT/GOC might move across to QLD in 2018 sometime
The first landfall occur if at all and where. Eighty Mile Beach in WA around Xmas
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1394790 - 27/11/2016 20:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 847
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Well it's something to look at....
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 27 November 2016
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 30 November 2016.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low has developed in the northeast Coral Sea, southwest of the Solomon Islands. The low is forecast to drift southward during the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning southeast on Tuesday.

Forecast conditions for development have improved since yesterday's outlook, but are still not ideal. There is a moderate chance the system will develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Later in the week the low will move east out of the Eastern Region and conditions for it to develop will become more unfavourable again.

This system is no threat to the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Moderate
Wednesday:
Low

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#1394817 - 28/11/2016 08:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: rainthisway]
Veejay Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/03/2014
Posts: 19
Loc: Emerald QLD
My guesstimations (more like wishful thinking).

First in the coral sea 16th Dec.
First to move into our area 29thDec (coming across the top from the Timor sea).
First landfall Onslow Xmass day.

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#1394842 - 28/11/2016 12:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Port Hedland
hehe I live in Port Hedland and have had a grand total of 69ml!!!!! for the year so far.

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#1396629 - 09/12/2016 10:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 458
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Well both access and gfs have a low forming near the Solomon's. Access has it moving to the east where as gfs has it moving to the south west, approaching seqld before moving off. I remember gfs forecasting yasi to cross SEQLD a week before it for formed. Now that didnt happen obviously but maybe this one will do the same in future runs and come up to us in the north. Just hope it sticks and they don't drop it.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2017]: 5.1mm (Ave 130.4mm)
Mar 2017: 246.3mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 912.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1396631 - 09/12/2016 11:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2513
Loc: Buderim
Which run are you looking at? 12z shows the low coming just barely far enough SW to cross the 160E line into Australias AOR. The 18z run shows it going more S to SE and heading for NZ. EC also has a low, but weaker and further east. CMC similar to GFS.

Something seems likely to happen in the second forecast week, but looks more like a South Pacific Cyclone season thing than a Coral Sea cyclone thing.

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#1396641 - 09/12/2016 14:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4428
At the moment, the EC ensemble has around 30 to 50% of its forecast memebers trying to slowly create a tropical system near the northern WA coast from around several days from now.
But isn't currently too keen on bringing any Coral Sea system that close to the coast. Wait and see scenario.

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#1396697 - 09/12/2016 21:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 458
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Yeah the forecast changed since I looked at it.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2017]: 5.1mm (Ave 130.4mm)
Mar 2017: 246.3mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 912.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1397591 - 18/12/2016 17:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
LonglifeMilk Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/01/2011
Posts: 197
Loc: Edmonton, Qld
God, I could swing cat in here and hit no-one...wish something would begin to happen - I'd settle for a good thunderstorm at this point...

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#1397597 - 18/12/2016 17:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1981
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Something is happening. It is hot and dry. grin

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#1398160 - 22/12/2016 12:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 694
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Yawn!!!!!! Awakes from hibernation...

Low in the North Coral Sea looks more organised today

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