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#1389809 - 08/10/2016 21:08 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3347
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
An interesting article - Politics As Satire: What Have Donald Trump, John Howard, Tony Abbott And Malcolm Turnbull Got In Common?

Quote:
"Whether it be the Coalition government in Australia or the Republicans in the US, the basic formula in essence is simple, circular and well worn: exploitation of the insecurity, prejudices and grievances of the socially disaffected as a means of politically counteracting the negative effects of policies that have overwhelmingly favoured a privileged minority and which created the disaffection in the first place."

https://newmatilda.com/2016/09/20/what-h...-got-in-common/

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#1389811 - 08/10/2016 21:19 Re: Australian Politics [Re: Steve777]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17461
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Steve777
An interesting article - Politics As Satire: What Have Donald Trump, John Howard, Tony Abbott And Malcolm Turnbull Got In Common?

Quote:
"Whether it be the Coalition government in Australia or the Republicans in the US, the basic formula in essence is simple, circular and well worn: exploitation of the insecurity, prejudices and grievances of the socially disaffected as a means of politically counteracting the negative effects of policies that have overwhelmingly favoured a privileged minority and which created the disaffection in the first place."

https://newmatilda.com/2016/09/20/what-h...-got-in-common/


Yes that is conservative policy in a nut shell.
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#1389814 - 08/10/2016 21:50 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1586
Loc: Bridgewater
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I don't understand how the power wouldn't have failed anyway when those towers went over like dominoes .


if powerlines in your street come down, it shouldnt cause the whole state to go black.
same with transmissions lines. it will have a bigger impact but sholdnt kill the state.

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#1389817 - 08/10/2016 22:07 Re: Australian Politics [Re: Eevo]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17461
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Eevo
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I don't understand how the power wouldn't have failed anyway when those towers went over like dominoes .


if powerlines in your street come down, it shouldnt cause the whole state to go black.
same with transmissions lines. it will have a bigger impact but sholdnt kill the state.


I get that, but this was one of the state's main lines wasn't it? In Queensland if the towers were knocked over in Rockhampton they'd take out all of Nth Qld as it is all carried from down south I believe.
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#1389820 - 08/10/2016 22:18 Re: Australian Politics [Re: Steve777]
Brett Guy Offline
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Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Steve777
An interesting article - Politics As Satire: What Have Donald Trump, John Howard, Tony Abbott And Malcolm Turnbull Got In Common?

Quote:
"Whether it be the Coalition government in Australia or the Republicans in the US, the basic formula in essence is simple, circular and well worn: exploitation of the insecurity, prejudices and grievances of the socially disaffected as a means of politically counteracting the negative effects of policies that have overwhelmingly favoured a privileged minority and which created the disaffection in the first place."

https://newmatilda.com/2016/09/20/what-h...-got-in-common/


Actually that is basically how both sides of politics works. They just target slightly different groups of upset people. Progressives in this regard are just as bad as conservatives.
The 'left' look for a victim and the 'right' look for an enemy but they both use the same methodology.


Edited by Brett Guy (08/10/2016 22:20)

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#1389824 - 08/10/2016 23:52 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1586
Loc: Bridgewater
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Eevo
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I don't understand how the power wouldn't have failed anyway when those towers went over like dominoes .


if powerlines in your street come down, it shouldnt cause the whole state to go black.
same with transmissions lines. it will have a bigger impact but sholdnt kill the state.


I get that, but this was one of the state's main lines wasn't it? In Queensland if the towers were knocked over in Rockhampton they'd take out all of Nth Qld as it is all carried from down south I believe.


sure, it should of knocked out the north of the state but not the south of the state

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#1389828 - 09/10/2016 07:51 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17461
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Steve777
An interesting article - Politics As Satire: What Have Donald Trump, John Howard, Tony Abbott And Malcolm Turnbull Got In Common?

Quote:
"Whether it be the Coalition government in Australia or the Republicans in the US, the basic formula in essence is simple, circular and well worn: exploitation of the insecurity, prejudices and grievances of the socially disaffected as a means of politically counteracting the negative effects of policies that have overwhelmingly favoured a privileged minority and which created the disaffection in the first place."

https://newmatilda.com/2016/09/20/what-h...-got-in-common/


Yes that is conservative policy in a nut shell.


Have a read of this article if you have time Steve. I've making this man's point for some time. This government is a victim of its own snookering .

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...not-the-villain
_________________________
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#1389927 - 10/10/2016 14:51 Re: Australian Politics [Re: Seira]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 293
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
It is also undeniable that South Australia now has an extremely fragile power system.

If that is true, we need to do something about before severe weather does it again smile , and quit....mucking around!

The blackout may not have happened if they fired up the gas power stations in anticipation of storms taking out transmission lines and the loss of the wind power.

Bold -- Anticipate? What kind of parameters are necessary to predict such an event?

Maybe a severe weather warning which they had in advance and having so much wind power which can be shut down by strong winds I would say that would come up during the inquiry.

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#1389929 - 10/10/2016 15:17 Re: Australian Politics [Re: Seira]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 293
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
It is also undeniable that South Australia now has an extremely fragile power system.

If that is true, we need to do something about before severe weather does it again smile , and quit....mucking around!

The blackout may not have happened if they fired up the gas power stations in anticipation of storms taking out transmission lines and the loss of the wind power.

Bold -- Anticipate? What kind of parameters are necessary to predict such an event?

Is this bold enough.....

Power operator knew storm was brewing

The AEMO report says that the energy market operator was expecting "severe weather" on Wednesday September 28.

Just before the power went down there was 800 megawatts of wind generation, 330MW of gas and 610MW was being imported from Victoria.

That wasn't the only thing being imported. The report says "there was no local [frequency ancillary control services] requirement pre-event, as there was no credible risk of separation of SA from the national electricity market."

That seems an extraordinary statement. The operator knew a storm was brewing and took a punt that the line to Victoria would stay up, keeping South Australia's frequency in harmony.

If the gamble fails so will South Australia's capacity to control rapid changes in supply and demand and whatever power generation is left in the state will be snuffed out.

The real drama plays out in a 90 second window between 4:16:46pm and 4:18:16pm.

The weather triggers a series of transmission faults and three major 275 kilovolt lines are lost. Then, in two separate events, 315 MW of wind generation is disconnected. This unexplained, rapid loss of wind power is the event that begins the cascade towards blackout.

"In the events leading up to the SA region black system, generation reduction occurred at six wind farms," the report says. "There was no reduction in thermal generation."

Why it happened is still a mystery.

"Additional analysis is required to determine the reasons for the reduction in generation and observed voltage levels before any conclusions can be drawn," the report says.

Demand then shifts dramatically to the line with Victoria. Just before the wind generation failed the Heywood interconnector's flow was about 525 MW, well within its normal operating limit of up to 600MW.

The reduction in generation and the oscillations caused by the transmission network events drove demand to "flows between 850 to 900 MW" well in excess of its capacity. So it shut itself down.

Now the "non-credible" had become credible. At 4:18:15pm the door to Victoria slammed shut, draining 900MW of supply in a heartbeat. There was "a rapid reduction in the power system frequency" in South Australia and it "fell to zero". That tripped the two thermal power stations at Torrens Island and Ladbroke Grove and all remaining wind farms.

And the lights went out across the state.

It should be noted here that the report says that 14 of the 22 transmission towers that went down did so, "following the SA black system".

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-06/uhlmann-on-power-blackout-in-south-australia/7906844

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#1389941 - 10/10/2016 17:07 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6969
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Bold -- Anticipate? What kind of parameters are necessary to predict such an event?

Is this bold enough.....

Power operator knew storm was brewing

My questions were not about the power network! They were about the weather event itself.

Here => “in anticipation of storms”

We can only do so much – that was my conclusion.

Yay? Does that clarify? I was not having a bitch, merely acknowledging it smile .


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/10/2016 17:09)

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#1389986 - 10/10/2016 22:27 Re: Australian Politics [Re: Seira]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 293
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Bold -- Anticipate? What kind of parameters are necessary to predict such an event?

Is this bold enough.....

Power operator knew storm was brewing

My questions were not about the power network! They were about the weather event itself.

Here => “in anticipation of storms”

We can only do so much – that was my conclusion.

Yay? Does that clarify? I was not having a bitch, merely acknowledging it smile .

Just before the power went down there was 800 megawatts of wind generation, 330MW of gas and 610MW was being imported from Victoria.
Seeing as wind farms shut down in high winds a severe weather warning of that scale should have rang alarm bells as to the potential loss of 800 megawatts from the system. The operator knew a storm was brewing and took a punt that the line to Victoria would stay up, keeping South Australia's frequency in harmony.
So what i am getting at is if a potential loss of wind generation (which was about 45 percent of the power being generated at that time) was on the cards they should have fired up base load power stations that were offline in anticipation of the severe weather event shutting down 45 percent of the states power.

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#1390001 - 11/10/2016 08:46 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17461
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Yes that makes sense RW. So in other words it was the management of the system that may be at fault and not renewables as previously claimed.
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#1390006 - 11/10/2016 09:36 Re: Australian Politics [Re: Red Watch]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1681
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
...........The operator knew a storm was brewing and took a punt that the line to Victoria would stay up, keeping South Australia's frequency in harmony.............


Could be at the centre of the Whole situation, except it be further described as an ECONOMIC PUNT.

It would cost considerable $$$'s to fire up the other S.A. power stations on the chance they would or would not be required.

The Chinese connection CF -> any reference to that ?
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 25.5mm to 0900 19th.

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#1390007 - 11/10/2016 09:48 Re: Australian Politics [Re: samboz]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17461
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: samboz


The Chinese connection CF -> any reference to that ?



You probably don't want to start me on what I think of foreign ownership of our essential services Samboz though I will say I personally believe there is a possibility that maintenance may be an issue with the towers coming down.
_________________________
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#1390008 - 11/10/2016 09:48 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1681
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I think one Chinese businessman's ownership of the network is going to come to the fore more than anything else.


As per above.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 25.5mm to 0900 19th.

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#1390011 - 11/10/2016 10:08 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17461
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
I don't support private ownership of any essential services Samboz ,regardless of who owns them and by this I mean the ones where we as individuals in society cannot produce ourselves. That it is owned by offshore interests makes it all the more worse.

Newman wanted to sell off a 40% share in the QLD power network. He then changed it to a lease of many decades (I don't recall whether it was 49 or 99 years) but when a private entity has that much ownership over it for so long it is a sale by any other name.

Look what happened to fuel once Coles and Woolworthless controlled most of it. It wasn't government owned but the competition got removed from the market by anti-cometitive behavior and the profit margins surged as a result. That cost us all regardless of your political leaning.The people that make the policy never pay for theirs so it doesn't affect them and that is where government fails on all fronts and persuasions.
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#1390013 - 11/10/2016 10:30 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1586
Loc: Bridgewater
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I don't support private ownership of any essential services Samboz ,regardless of who owns them and by this I mean the ones where we as individuals in society cannot produce ourselves. That it is owned by offshore interests makes it all the more worse.

Newman wanted to sell off a 40% share in the QLD power network. He then changed it to a lease of many decades (I don't recall whether it was 49 or 99 years) but when a private entity has that much ownership over it for so long it is a sale by any other name.

Look what happened to fuel once Coles and Woolworthless controlled most of it. It wasn't government owned but the competition got removed from the market by anti-cometitive behavior and the profit margins surged as a result. That cost us all regardless of your political leaning.The people that make the policy never pay for theirs so it doesn't affect them and that is where government fails on all fronts and persuasions.


i agree with you here.
imagine if we privatised the fire service.

having said that, I understand why we went to a privited model

and

i keep calling out govt incompetent. do i really want them running an essential service?

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#1390015 - 11/10/2016 11:10 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1681
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Chinese business man ?
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 25.5mm to 0900 19th.

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#1390022 - 11/10/2016 12:51 Re: Australian Politics [Re: samboz]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17461
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: samboz
Chinese business man ?


I read that it is owned by a Chinese national that lives in Hong Kong?
_________________________
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#1390023 - 11/10/2016 12:53 Re: Australian Politics [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17461
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach

..and the post above where Newman wanted to sell off QLDs grid should read a 49% share and not 40%.
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