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#1392042 - 02/11/2016 13:10 2016/2017 Bushfire season
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Hello everyone!

Just got back home from Uni today and finally got back on WZ. With yesterday being what would normally be start of the bushfire season I thought I would set this thread up for when its needed and to post the season forecast. Last years thread was already 2 months old by this time last year shows how much better the conditions are. Things do appear to be warming up in the coming weeks in the north of the state looking at the models.

Will post weekly updates for grassland curing when i remember

2016/17 season forecast




Latest Grass Curing






Lets hope it stays a quiet season and this thread can stay unused!
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1392089 - 03/11/2016 07:21 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1548
Loc: Orange, NSW
Thanks dude smile

Hard to believe it's November already, certainly doesn't feel like it!
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Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1392096 - 03/11/2016 09:21 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks for the thread logansi, good work and hope Uni. returned a good year for your efforts grin
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1392112 - 03/11/2016 13:01 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2227
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks, as the High Pressure is working hard keep warm to hot out of Victoria and Victoria will be heavy project backburn as grass not dry yet.

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#1392118 - 03/11/2016 16:53 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 354
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Potentially severe day coming up for Saturday across NE NSW, still time to change but starting to look locked in. Not the extreme days you see down in Vic but getting up there for this part of the world.
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www.bellingenweather.org

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#1392173 - 04/11/2016 14:57 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Thanks for the WB guys smile.

Today has seen 2 stations (Swan Hill and Mildura) hit severe FFDI for the first time this season, couple of central stations saw VH. Still to green for fire activity but the wind, warmth and low humidity will definitely start the grass curing and drying process.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1392412 - 07/11/2016 19:47 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Latest Grass Curing map for those interested:

_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1392463 - 08/11/2016 11:14 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The last week of moderate warmth and gusty winds have dried us off to a large extent, I wouldn't be surprised to see our country fully dried off by Christmas and then a wet January.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1392601 - 08/11/2016 18:30 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: samboz]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: samboz
The last week of moderate warmth and gusty winds have dried us off to a large extent, I wouldn't be surprised to see our country fully dried off by Christmas and then a wet January.


Yep the drying period has definitely begun, HELITACK 334 positioned to Sea Lake today so should be our first aircraft to come online for the season, things are being changed this season so interesting to follow where things get based.
Personally don't agree with the wet January, have a feeling the summer months are going to fall to at or below average after our wet winter/spring but lets hope so


Edited by logansi (08/11/2016 18:31)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1392615 - 08/11/2016 19:08 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Also to the above. 2 Fixed wing bombers will be based at Ouyen - first time for bombers being permanently based in the NW and first of any type for Ouyen - also coming online tomorrow.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1392622 - 08/11/2016 19:45 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
grin The wet Jan' is wishful thinking loganski.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1393830 - 15/11/2016 15:21 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
This weeks grass curing update - bit more Yellow out there now. Some warmer temps this week should keep this spreading south.



'Malcolm"/ Helitack 341 is sitting at Essendon, waiting for season to progress a bit more before coming online. Amazing machine up close!

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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1393948 - 17/11/2016 16:35 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
First spike day and likely TFB going up for Monday the 21st with Severe for the Mallee, VH or high elsewhere





Edited by logansi (17/11/2016 16:35)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1394123 - 20/11/2016 16:11 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Tomorrow, Mon, 21 Nov 2016 has been declared a day of Total Fire Ban in the Mallee district(s) of Victoria.
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1394153 - 21/11/2016 07:38 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1185
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I heard that this year they are looking at including aircraft in the initial call when the FDI is past a certain point (maybe for hot day response?) To cut down the response time.

This weekend is going to dry us out.

I don't think we will have a wet Jan but I do think March and April will be wet, when the northern cyclone season comes to head but that is just a gut feeling at this stage.
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1394155 - 21/11/2016 08:35 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: logansi
Tomorrow, Mon, 21 Nov 2016 has been declared a day of Total Fire Ban in the Mallee district(s) of Victoria.


Checked Vic. WARNINGS SUMMARY, then the heading FIRE WEATHER WARNING which made reference to the Mallee Forecast District, gives a summary of conditions there today and says that today has "Severe Fire Danger" etc and C.F.A. advice re Bushfire Survival Plan etc.

No mention that today is in fact a DAY OF TOTAL FIRE BAN in the Mallee !

Seems to me that BOM would be able to easily add the T.F.B. advice in this fairly lengthy (twenty-one line) warning, wonder why they don't really.

edit...should add that as far as I can see, the TFB was issued about 5 hours before the Fire Weather Warning was.


Edited by samboz (21/11/2016 08:44)
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1394156 - 21/11/2016 08:36 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The dispatch of aircraft on initial call, is known as Pre Determined Dispatch (PDD). It has been running across most of the state for a number of years, after being trialed in Bendigo in 2013. It was one of the recommendations from the Black Saturday royal commission. It occurs when the FDI is over 12.

It has been expanded this year, to cover all CFA areas, previously the outer Melbourne and Ballarat areas were not covered. As someone who has followed it for a number of years i think it has been a great success, many bad fires have occurred when PDD was not available due to multiple incidents.

For those interested aircraft can be tracked at this link: https://firewebext.ffm.vic.gov.au/BurnsToday/sau/SAU_External/SAU_home.htm (under current dispatch)


Edited by logansi (21/11/2016 08:38)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1394164 - 21/11/2016 10:09 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1185
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: logansi
The dispatch of aircraft on initial call, is known as Pre Determined Dispatch (PDD). It has been running across most of the state for a number of years, after being trialed in Bendigo in 2013. It was one of the recommendations from the Black Saturday royal commission. It occurs when the FDI is over 12.

It has been expanded this year, to cover all CFA areas, previously the outer Melbourne and Ballarat areas were not covered. As someone who has followed it for a number of years i think it has been a great success, many bad fires have occurred when PDD was not available due to multiple incidents.

For those interested aircraft can be tracked at this link: https://firewebext.ffm.vic.gov.au/BurnsToday/sau/SAU_External/SAU_home.htm (under current dispatch)


Awesome info.

I'm hoping to one day be involved in aircraft ops. I'm learning to fly at the moment with the big goal being a water bomber one day grin

agreee that PDD is a must. Even for the off chance that some of the reserves around even metro melbourne go up. there is a lot of people that could be impacted by bushfire like conditions that live in suburban melbourne and they aren't likely to have considered the risk.


Edited by Dawoodman (21/11/2016 10:11)
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1394167 - 21/11/2016 10:23 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: Dawoodman]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
Originally Posted By: logansi
The dispatch of aircraft on initial call, is known as Pre Determined Dispatch (PDD). It has been running across most of the state for a number of years, after being trialed in Bendigo in 2013. It was one of the recommendations from the Black Saturday royal commission. It occurs when the FDI is over 12.

It has been expanded this year, to cover all CFA areas, previously the outer Melbourne and Ballarat areas were not covered. As someone who has followed it for a number of years i think it has been a great success, many bad fires have occurred when PDD was not available due to multiple incidents.

For those interested aircraft can be tracked at this link: https://firewebext.ffm.vic.gov.au/BurnsToday/sau/SAU_External/SAU_home.htm (under current dispatch)


Awesome info.

I'm hoping to one day be involved in aircraft ops. I'm learning to fly at the moment with the big goal being a water bomber one day grin

agreee that PDD is a must. Even for the off chance that some of the reserves around even metro Melbourne go up. there is a lot of people that could be impacted by bushfire like conditions that live in suburban Melbourne and they aren't likely to have considered the risk.


Well, Well. Also a budding pilot here mate smile Currently in the middle of applying for the Regional Express cadetship. If that fails then will be just continuing at the local flying school.


Edited by logansi (21/11/2016 10:24)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1394183 - 21/11/2016 12:47 Re: 2016/2017 Bushfire season [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
For Histories sake, Make tankers 15 on Swan Hill fire, 100 acres NYUC, 2 bombers and helitack responding - first aircraft deployment of 2016-17.


Edited by logansi (21/11/2016 12:47)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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