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#1395741 - 03/12/2016 20:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 615
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Great photos, man you guys get the big stuff inland north east of that scenic rim. No complaints down here though seen some great lightning and big thunderclaps from positive lightning strikes on the coast. Another great day of thunderstorm activity for SE Qld

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#1395744 - 03/12/2016 21:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Today and last Wednesday demonstrate why you need a southerly change for big supercells to affect Brisbane (or for propagation to occur NW on the ranges). On both days the supercells weakened shortly before they struck. Coming from the south or the north-west is better than the west as the ranges are closer to the city, but essentially once they hit the plains they start to die with the loss of buoyancy. A southerly change would have kept them strong as they approached the city. It's no accident that the worst storms to hit Brisbane generally involve southerly changes.

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#1395745 - 03/12/2016 21:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2930
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Tweed Second that, I saw some footage of 2 trees a blaze from lightning. Soo more tomorrow? Really like your shots Locke BTW.


Edited by Steve O (03/12/2016 21:07)

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#1395747 - 03/12/2016 21:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Today and last Wednesday demonstrate why you need a southerly change for big supercells to affect Brisbane (or for propagation to occur NW on the ranges). On both days the supercells weakened shortly before they struck. Coming from the south or the north-west is better than the west as the ranges are closer to the city, but essentially once they hit the plains they start to die with the loss of buoyancy. A southerly change would have kept them strong as they approached the city. It's no accident that the worst storms to hit Brisbane generally involve southerly changes.


Jeff Callaghan actually did a study on that and found that changes pushing up the coast made the biggest contribution to particularly destructive thunderstorms in this area from memory. Which confirms the anecdotal/subjective impressions.

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#1395749 - 03/12/2016 21:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Today and last Wednesday demonstrate why you need a southerly change for big supercells to affect Brisbane (or for propagation to occur NW on the ranges). On both days the supercells weakened shortly before they struck. Coming from the south or the north-west is better than the west as the ranges are closer to the city, but essentially once they hit the plains they start to die with the loss of buoyancy. A southerly change would have kept them strong as they approached the city. It's no accident that the worst storms to hit Brisbane generally involve southerly changes.


Jeff Callaghan actually did a study on that and found that changes pushing up the coast made the biggest contribution to particularly destructive thunderstorms in this area from memory. Which confirms the anecdotal/subjective impressions.


Unfortunately they are the most frustrating as they're either not there when you need them or the timing is off!

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#1395750 - 03/12/2016 21:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Sorry if anyone happened to post these earlier but for those who haven't seen these yet, these are a couple of the best photos I've seen so far from today.

The 1st one over the Brisbane CBD is from Mathew Townsend while the 2nd one is from Paul Molini as the supercell loomed over Springfield - both shared to fb.

The full size versions are here:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10154119939288806&set=o.261100802504&type=3&theater
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10209509097377700&set=o.261100802504&type=3&theater




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#1395751 - 03/12/2016 21:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The structure really was spectacular today.

Also, I found this which references the report you mentioned Ken. It's a shame you can't really access a lot of these types of reports as I think they would be quite interesting to read:

Climatology: The most recent review of severe thunderstorm climatology in South-East Queensland was undertaken to assist in estimating likely long-term risks to insurers (SEA, 1997). This study combined various datasets from the Bureau of Meteorology and undertook a number of analyses to determine the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms within 150 km of Brisbane. The review relied on a number of earlier studies which considered the synoptic conditions for the occurrence of severe storms. Principal amongst these was Callaghan (1988), which used a 10 year data set containing only storms with high radar reflectivity regions (>60 dBZ) thus ensuing only potentially severe storms with very heavy rain and/or hail were considered. After some simplification, Callaghan’s analysis leads to essentially four classes of severe thunderstorms in the region, based on broad synoptic pre-cursor types as follows (Harper and Callaghan, 1998):

Type A: SE Change (23%)
Type B: Strong NW Flow (17%)
Type C: Weak NW Flow (43%)
Type D: Other (17%)


EDIT: I would add that when you focus on Brisbane itself not the 150 km region it would definitely have to be SE change as #1 followed by NW flow.


Edited by Nature's Fury (03/12/2016 21:16)

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#1395752 - 03/12/2016 21:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
sharjay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 933
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
awesome photos ken. wish i had a decent camera. we have had almost 2 hours of lightning.. still seeing loads of cc's now. has been impressive lightning in this. nice little drop of rain but not much else in our area.

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#1395754 - 03/12/2016 21:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: sharjay]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Ken, do you have any idea why Access-R was so aggressive with the storm modelling? Was there some particular atmospheric conditions that triggered it? I've never seen it that certain and accurate over so many runs prior to a 'possible' storm day.

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#1395755 - 03/12/2016 21:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Yep NF, later studies confirmed that a coastal change + seabreeze setup was associated with the greatest percentage (30%) of hailstorms in SE QLD as a region compared to other synoptic setups.

EDIT: btw dunno if you saw this post earlier today but ACCESS-C was similar (I didn't invesigate why). EC also had a big bullseye of convection:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...hun#Post1395593


Edited by Ken Kato (03/12/2016 21:28)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1395757 - 03/12/2016 21:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683

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#1395759 - 03/12/2016 21:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2930
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The backing with height profile was something that stuck out to me for today's setup. Amongst other things the windshear was looking more like what you would expect for severe storms and steep lapse rates. I don't really look to much into the precip rates on the models much anymore maybe too identify positioning but actual rain on the ground always seems to differ.


Edited by Steve O (03/12/2016 21:36)

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#1395760 - 03/12/2016 21:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Awesome pics everyone.
Gennies running, no power until 11pm at least.
Good on the sparkies trying their best connecting power back on. Dinner cooked & all happy.

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#1395761 - 03/12/2016 21:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 615
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Just when I thought it was all over down here another storm moves through with continuous lightning and rain belting down.Must be a very active trough this!

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#1395762 - 03/12/2016 21:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6623
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Outflow of the storm has skipped so far ahead it's already reached here...bye bye storm.

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#1395765 - 03/12/2016 22:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Raining again, oh yeah!

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#1395766 - 03/12/2016 22:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
sharjay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/05/2011
Posts: 933
Loc: Mooloolaba Sunshine Coast QLD
we seem to be getting another second storm here atm...wind picked up and loads more chain lightning with closer louder thunder...or is this the tail end of 1st storm. cant tell by the radar..can someone explain

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#1395767 - 03/12/2016 22:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4329
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth - 2nd storm 5.6mm, making a total of 23.0mm for both storms. However a wind gust of 80km/hr at 1930 from the NNE after the second storm had passed.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct217.4(93),Nov62.0,YTD981.4(1043.4)

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#1395768 - 03/12/2016 22:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 854
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Saw a cg hit a tree on thus about 100m away. 14mm
Some amazing lightning this evening long after the storm.
14mm thius up to 8mm today. Bom forecast was 20% of 0...

Amazing to watch it ripnup here from nsw.

Haha Sharjay, I thought it was over but the best lighting is south,,!


Edited by Blowin' (03/12/2016 22:24)
Edit Reason: Sharjay

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#1395769 - 03/12/2016 22:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Continuing Thunderstorm Activity - 3rd to 9th December 2016 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2930
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
A bit hesitant about tomorrow for storms deep down I just want more but judging by GFS you would think maybe possibly similar today but more garden variety. Then again look at the pme it says no storms for coastal regions which could overrule what GFS is forecasting sadly.







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