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#1396704 - 09/12/2016 23:00 VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey g'day and bula vinaka gang! smile

A lot of uncertainty and speculation surrounds the next event for Victoria, but the general consensus is that something is likely heading our way. Hence the new thread, so here we go! smile

During the weekend, a low and trough will develop over the WA Pilbara then slide south down the West Coast towards Southwest WA. Then early next week, this system will shift eastwards to be somewhere over Southeastern Australia by around Tuesday/Wednesday.

Meantime, through into the equation the next potentially major winter storm for 2016. A deepening low pressure system from Antarctica is on the move in the Southern Ocean. The low will unleash a mighty cold front that will swing northbound towards Southern Australia, and join forces with the inland low and trough by mid-next week.

A large high will gradually clear off the East Coast into the Tasman Sea, and allow winds to swing around into a hot northerly airflow across Eastern Australia starting Monday. Should be dry heat initially, and likely windy as the front and trough approach, so could be a dangerous bushfire risk across Victoria on Monday and especially Tuesday. Forecast tops of 30C and 33C for Melbourne, and 36C and 37C for Mildura, Monday and Tuesday respectively.

Moisture should be eventually pumped into the system, especially from the South Pacific. Depending on how things pan out, especially with the trajectory of the inland low, we could be seeing a significant summer rainfall event unfolding across Victoria by Wednesday, hopefully with an outbreak of severe thunderstorms thrown in too! smile

One to watch. Have a good one!

Aussiestormfreak smile

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#1396717 - 10/12/2016 09:47 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
most models now keeping all the significant falls to our north.

_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1396760 - 10/12/2016 13:53 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2322
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Tuesday will be Hot day most Victoria and warm night until 3am Wednesday morning for cool change for Northern Country

Cool change will reach Melbourne about 10pm Tueday night.

Best pin the wind is windytv.com


Edited by chasers addict (10/12/2016 14:00)

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#1396764 - 10/12/2016 14:10 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Is WindyTV based on GFS or EC?
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1396783 - 10/12/2016 18:23 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6660
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks ASF - looks to be the perfect night next Tuesday out our way for BBQ's/Christmas parties smile

BOM currently predicting a dry change into Wed out Gippsland way frown

GFS currently provides our way with some rain (circa 4mm) - so this little black duck is hoping to be wakened by a weak storm in the early hours of Wed?

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#1396784 - 10/12/2016 18:23 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6660
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: logansi
Is WindyTV based on GFS or EC?


It lets you choose from either.

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#1396803 - 10/12/2016 21:41 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Access back on it for the north





_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1396818 - 11/12/2016 08:59 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Access even better this morning 50+ mm state wide, other models - not a drop.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1396834 - 11/12/2016 11:46 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yesterday's report...

Dipped to 10.6C yesterday morning, then a pleasant top of 22.5C during the afternoon.

My fiancee (whose out from Fiji) and I went into the City. Due to ongoing level crossing removal works on the Belgrave/Lilydale lines, we caught the train at Huntingdale. We left home at 11am, and it was chilly and mostly cloudy, with a 1-minute light shower in Rowville. poke

Arriving in the City at midday, the weather changed abruptly and it was a gloriously warm, mostly sunny afternoon with a cool breeze! grin

The chilly, overcast conditions returned at sunset.

As for today...

Overnight low of 11.2C, currently around 18C and partly cloudy. smile

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#1396858 - 11/12/2016 18:34 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6660
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...still looking like a "near dry change" for us out in N Gippsland Tue/Wed??:



Hope we (out this way) get storms for a bit of lucky rain, BUT starting to move into the summer dry period where weak changes with thunder create problems (e.g. Cann River last week).

Lots of tall standing curing grass in Vic - eh??

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#1396879 - 11/12/2016 22:21 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Don't worry the rain may come Friday



and the following Tuesday

_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1396965 - 12/12/2016 17:52 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6660
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hotter than forecast 34C here today! - calm n sunny. Baro backed off to 1014 hPa atm.

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#1396972 - 12/12/2016 18:33 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
same here, up to 30, forcast top was 26 (upped to 27 this morning)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1396990 - 12/12/2016 22:43 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a mostly sunny top of 25.4C here in Belgrave yesterday arvo. Very nice! smile

As for today...

A cold morning, with a chilly overnight low of 8.6C, followed by a hot, mostly sunny afternoon top of 35.0C. Made tennis feel uncomfortable at the time but I survived lol. smile

A pleasant evening right now, with a gorgeous sunset despite increasing high cloud across the western horizon. Currently around 20C with a slight cool breeze, and a bright full moon. smile

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#1397041 - 13/12/2016 09:41 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 19.8C, it was a breezy, partly cloudy 26C when I left home for work an hour ago.

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#1397087 - 13/12/2016 15:12 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2322
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Been away now back home.

Very windy and overcast of 35c at 3pm.

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#1397089 - 13/12/2016 15:17 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Today here I've seen 32.5C, mongrel N/W blowing, some cloud to temper the sun is handy.

EC has us down for about 26MM Fri/Sat, ACCESS gives it a chance but much to early to lay any $$'s on it.

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Maffra/long.html
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1397104 - 13/12/2016 17:28 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2322
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had very quick dry micro burst hit 35km Gusty winds last 10 mins with few patchy rain.

Now 33c at 5.15pm light to strong NW wind at times.


Edited by chasers addict (13/12/2016 17:28)

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#1397105 - 13/12/2016 17:51 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot, sweaty 35.7C here in Belgrave today. A dry but mostly cloudy day with hot, gusty northerlies. The change (if you call it that) reached my area at about 4:20pm, and it's currently around 32C.

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#1397118 - 13/12/2016 20:46 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 98
Loc: Shepparton
peak gust of 87 km, patchy rain ,nothing heavy
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