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#1396704 - 09/12/2016 23:00 VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey g'day and bula vinaka gang! smile

A lot of uncertainty and speculation surrounds the next event for Victoria, but the general consensus is that something is likely heading our way. Hence the new thread, so here we go! smile

During the weekend, a low and trough will develop over the WA Pilbara then slide south down the West Coast towards Southwest WA. Then early next week, this system will shift eastwards to be somewhere over Southeastern Australia by around Tuesday/Wednesday.

Meantime, through into the equation the next potentially major winter storm for 2016. A deepening low pressure system from Antarctica is on the move in the Southern Ocean. The low will unleash a mighty cold front that will swing northbound towards Southern Australia, and join forces with the inland low and trough by mid-next week.

A large high will gradually clear off the East Coast into the Tasman Sea, and allow winds to swing around into a hot northerly airflow across Eastern Australia starting Monday. Should be dry heat initially, and likely windy as the front and trough approach, so could be a dangerous bushfire risk across Victoria on Monday and especially Tuesday. Forecast tops of 30C and 33C for Melbourne, and 36C and 37C for Mildura, Monday and Tuesday respectively.

Moisture should be eventually pumped into the system, especially from the South Pacific. Depending on how things pan out, especially with the trajectory of the inland low, we could be seeing a significant summer rainfall event unfolding across Victoria by Wednesday, hopefully with an outbreak of severe thunderstorms thrown in too! smile

One to watch. Have a good one!

Aussiestormfreak smile

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#1396717 - 10/12/2016 09:47 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
most models now keeping all the significant falls to our north.

_________________________
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#1396760 - 10/12/2016 13:53 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Tuesday will be Hot day most Victoria and warm night until 3am Wednesday morning for cool change for Northern Country

Cool change will reach Melbourne about 10pm Tueday night.

Best pin the wind is windytv.com


Edited by chasers addict (10/12/2016 14:00)

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#1396764 - 10/12/2016 14:10 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Is WindyTV based on GFS or EC?
_________________________
Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1396783 - 10/12/2016 18:23 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks ASF - looks to be the perfect night next Tuesday out our way for BBQ's/Christmas parties smile

BOM currently predicting a dry change into Wed out Gippsland way frown

GFS currently provides our way with some rain (circa 4mm) - so this little black duck is hoping to be wakened by a weak storm in the early hours of Wed?

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#1396784 - 10/12/2016 18:23 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: logansi
Is WindyTV based on GFS or EC?


It lets you choose from either.

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#1396803 - 10/12/2016 21:41 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Access back on it for the north





_________________________
Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1396818 - 11/12/2016 08:59 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Access even better this morning 50+ mm state wide, other models - not a drop.
_________________________
Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1396834 - 11/12/2016 11:46 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yesterday's report...

Dipped to 10.6C yesterday morning, then a pleasant top of 22.5C during the afternoon.

My fiancee (whose out from Fiji) and I went into the City. Due to ongoing level crossing removal works on the Belgrave/Lilydale lines, we caught the train at Huntingdale. We left home at 11am, and it was chilly and mostly cloudy, with a 1-minute light shower in Rowville. poke

Arriving in the City at midday, the weather changed abruptly and it was a gloriously warm, mostly sunny afternoon with a cool breeze! grin

The chilly, overcast conditions returned at sunset.

As for today...

Overnight low of 11.2C, currently around 18C and partly cloudy. smile

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#1396858 - 11/12/2016 18:34 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...still looking like a "near dry change" for us out in N Gippsland Tue/Wed??:



Hope we (out this way) get storms for a bit of lucky rain, BUT starting to move into the summer dry period where weak changes with thunder create problems (e.g. Cann River last week).

Lots of tall standing curing grass in Vic - eh??

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#1396879 - 11/12/2016 22:21 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Don't worry the rain may come Friday



and the following Tuesday

_________________________
Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1396965 - 12/12/2016 17:52 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hotter than forecast 34C here today! - calm n sunny. Baro backed off to 1014 hPa atm.

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#1396972 - 12/12/2016 18:33 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
same here, up to 30, forcast top was 26 (upped to 27 this morning)
_________________________
Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1396990 - 12/12/2016 22:43 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a mostly sunny top of 25.4C here in Belgrave yesterday arvo. Very nice! smile

As for today...

A cold morning, with a chilly overnight low of 8.6C, followed by a hot, mostly sunny afternoon top of 35.0C. Made tennis feel uncomfortable at the time but I survived lol. smile

A pleasant evening right now, with a gorgeous sunset despite increasing high cloud across the western horizon. Currently around 20C with a slight cool breeze, and a bright full moon. smile

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#1397041 - 13/12/2016 09:41 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 19.8C, it was a breezy, partly cloudy 26C when I left home for work an hour ago.

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#1397087 - 13/12/2016 15:12 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Been away now back home.

Very windy and overcast of 35c at 3pm.

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#1397089 - 13/12/2016 15:17 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Today here I've seen 32.5C, mongrel N/W blowing, some cloud to temper the sun is handy.

EC has us down for about 26MM Fri/Sat, ACCESS gives it a chance but much to early to lay any $$'s on it.

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Maffra/long.html
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1397104 - 13/12/2016 17:28 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had very quick dry micro burst hit 35km Gusty winds last 10 mins with few patchy rain.

Now 33c at 5.15pm light to strong NW wind at times.


Edited by chasers addict (13/12/2016 17:28)

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#1397105 - 13/12/2016 17:51 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot, sweaty 35.7C here in Belgrave today. A dry but mostly cloudy day with hot, gusty northerlies. The change (if you call it that) reached my area at about 4:20pm, and it's currently around 32C.

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#1397118 - 13/12/2016 20:46 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 87
Loc: Shepparton
peak gust of 87 km, patchy rain ,nothing heavy
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#1397120 - 13/12/2016 21:18 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
I thought I heard a clap of thunder but I must be mistaken. Must have been a plane! We don't get thunderstorms!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1397175 - 14/12/2016 09:21 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
37c here yest. Got 1mm from the change early am. Overcast SWly windy here now.

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#1397178 - 14/12/2016 09:45 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 14.9C, currently around 19C and overcast. It was a stifling 28C at midnight btw. poke

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#1397183 - 14/12/2016 10:11 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had rough sleep of 25c, now lovely cool of 15c at 10am overcast.

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#1397236 - 14/12/2016 17:13 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a warm, hazy, mostly cloudy top of 23.0C here in Belgrave today. Nice to have had some sunshine, but forgot to mention that we had very light rain this morning. poke

Currently around 21C.

Btw, I'm bored sick of waiting for storms to occur! mad

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#1397279 - 15/12/2016 00:09 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Just came home from a lovely evening up in the Chirnside Park/Lilydale/Yering area with my fiancee, family, relatives and friends.

Weatherwise it wasn't all that ideal. A rather chilly evening over the Yarra Valley, with temperatures around the low/mid-teens, a gusty breeze, and very hazy and generally cloudy conditions as the tail-end of the front and trough moved eastwards. poke

It stayed mostly cloudy until about 10pm, when the skies cleared up enough to reveal the stars and a full Moon! And a beautiful sunset tossed in at 8:30pm! smile

A rather cold night ahead, currently around 9C here in Belgrave.

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#1397306 - 15/12/2016 12:11 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lovey day with cirrus clouds hanging out from North clam of 21c at 12pm

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#1397337 - 15/12/2016 18:00 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.0C, reached a top of 23.7C here in Belgrave today, currently around 19C.

Despite the chilly start, it was a gloriously mild to warm, mostly sunny day, with cooling southerly breezes, and high cloud spreading down from the north. Perfect day for being at work in Boronia, and later on in Ringwood with my fiancee and my mum, before coming home via Lilydale and Monbulk! smile

Still looked hazy, especially over the Yarra Valley.

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#1397372 - 16/12/2016 10:08 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 7.6C, currently around 18C and mostly sunny. A chilly evening down in Dandenong last night I must say! poke

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#1397383 - 16/12/2016 12:16 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Some of my friends complain where is summer?..

Well the forecast GFS until Christmas day will look cooler no hot days, maybe before or after New Year until GFS update.

Better no bushfires.

Overcast of 22c at 12pm


Edited by chasers addict (16/12/2016 12:16)

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#1397464 - 17/12/2016 15:21 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Blowing like blazes here, S to S/W, strong as remembered this year, Moornapa however has only recorded max 46kph and is only 25'ish km away.

East Sale max 95kph and I reckon we equaled that here round 1430.

Dried off quite quickly over last week, some green left low under the dry stuff.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1397489 - 17/12/2016 18:27 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, lots of displaced coal from the LV mines this arvo in the howling Westerly, lots of sticks etc. to negotiate on the trip home from work before.

Still cool and blustery out there now. 21C

GFS is mooting a hot Christmas eve and a Christmas day lunch-time change for Gippsland??

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#1397492 - 17/12/2016 19:11 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Today feels like late spring of 19c at 7pm

Monday Warm to hot thundery change.

Hope Christmas Cyclone Low pressure from WA moves to SE Australia bring heavy rain wait for GFS Chart update.

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#1397525 - 18/12/2016 00:15 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 30.8C here in Belgrave on Friday afternoon. A nice hot summer's day spent in the City with my fiancee, except it was muggy.

Skies clouded over from lunchtime until late-afternoon as the front/trough approached, but only a few brief light spitting showers at 3pm. Clear skies resumed at dinnertime, and it was a balmy evening afterwards! smile

As for yesterday...

Overnight low of 14.9C, reached a top of 22.5C. Up until mid-afternoon it was a partly cloudy day. Abundant mild/warm sunshine afterwards, despite a coolish, gusty southwesterly breeze. It was a chilly evening down in Glen Waverley btw. poke

Currently around 9C.

Glad we haven't had any seriously dangerous heat since mid-November, but we are due for a good burst of heavy rain, and long-overdue for severe storms! frown mad

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#1397536 - 18/12/2016 09:05 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.4C, currently around 15C and partly cloudy. Had a surprise 3.1mm of rain last night btw! Totally unexpected. grin

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#1397598 - 18/12/2016 17:51 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A cold start to the day out this way, but cold W'ly stopped midday, and after a 3 hour sunnly lull lifted us to 25C, a cool easterly breeze arrived.

I think easterly conditions will be "bolted on" out this region for a couple of weeks to come??!!

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#1397641 - 18/12/2016 22:22 Re: VIC - Deep Inland Low/Intense Cold Front - Heatwave Then Possible Rain Event/Storm Outbreak - December 12-17 2016 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5711
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a warm, mostly sunny top of 22.5C here in Belgrave today. Took a while to get there though, but the morning cloud burnt off by midday, and there was a nice cool breeze. smile

Currently around 10C.

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