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#1396428 - 08/12/2016 10:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1493
Loc: Kingaroy
Hopefully our water supplies can hold out in this Millennium Drought type setup.

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#1396486 - 08/12/2016 16:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Why has the SAM been stuck in negative mode for so long anyway? We focus on the Pacific so much but if other factors like the SAM don't line up then the effects of ENSO become so minute. There is still snow falling on high ground in the southern states for crying out loud, that's hardly normal for December.

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#1396488 - 08/12/2016 16:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 440
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
It's been a strange year. And not just for the climate. Anything can and will happen.

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#1396510 - 08/12/2016 18:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Mega]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2584
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Mega
Why has the SAM been stuck in negative mode for so long anyway? We focus on the Pacific so much but if other factors like the SAM don't line up then the effects of ENSO become so minute. There is still snow falling on high ground in the southern states for crying out loud, that's hardly normal for December.


The SAM has not been stuck in negative mode for long at all, in fact the 3 month running mean shows us its been stuck in a sky high positive mode since the start of 2015. The SAM basically lives in the positive mode these days, and is rarely negative for very long.
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#1396520 - 08/12/2016 18:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
So what is the difference between the SAM and the AAO? Because from my understanding they're the same thing, and since late September it's all been negative apart from a brief spike in October:


edit: I understand what you mean now. I checked the 2015 AAO figures and yes they do seem to be mostly positive:



That's very interesting to say the least.

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#1396526 - 08/12/2016 18:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 440
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Yeah same thing.

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#1396528 - 08/12/2016 18:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
From what I've read, with a - SAM, the westerly belt lies further north through Victoria across the Tasman Sea into NZ, which also promotes weaker high pressure to shift north across northern states and the southern Coral Sea as well. Hence why it's so hot and dry across the north but cold and windy in the south.

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#1396529 - 08/12/2016 18:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 440
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
That AAO forecast has changed significantly since yesterday. Very up and down. Must be some underlying factor bom are factoring in. It's been an odd few weeks. Both polar vortex have acted strangely.

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#1396530 - 08/12/2016 18:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 354
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Absolutely. I wonder if the weaker than usual Antarctic circulation is connected with the way below average ice for this time of year...It's been the most negative I have seen it (and it has apparently been mostly +ve since the 1950s?) so something has weakened it. Last couple of runs though have been the most +ve forecasts I have seen for a while.
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#1396632 - 09/12/2016 11:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2500
Loc: Buderim
Some model run of significant tropical activity out near the Solomon Islands in the second forecast week. Potential for a strong westerly wind burst with this activity, which on the back of the short lived but intense burst just finishing would put the tropical pacific firmly on a neutral to warm neutral trend.

I am quite confident the AAO and Antractic ice are tied together closely. The ice is significantly reduced in two places, and is actually expanded in others. This seems to relate to where the westerly belt has expanded, and I think the circulation anomalies are at least a large part of the current ice anomalies.

Big changes in ice coverage could have significant impacts on the weather - it takes the same energy to melt a tonne of ice as it does to warm a tonne of water by 80 degrees. And ice reflects a lot of incoming solar radiation, so it wouldn't surprise me if removing or replacing the ice from a specific area of ocean is going to have similar implications on the atmospheric heat engines as warming or cooling a specific area of ocean surface by several degrees.

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#1396659 - 09/12/2016 16:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1922
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
It is funny is it not.

It seems everything is against it raining. If it is not an El Nino it is something else. I wonder if there is any place in the world where it is naturally wet like we are naturally dry.

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#1396677 - 09/12/2016 19:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: RC]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1720
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: RC
It is funny is it not.

It seems everything is against it raining. If it is not an El Nino it is something else. I wonder if there is any place in the world where it is naturally wet like we are naturally dry.


If there are dry spells in the tropics we know the weather is truly messed up.

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#1396707 - 10/12/2016 01:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8281
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
We just had a record winter/spring wet spell across most of the country?? Come on, it can't keep raining forever. When it's flooded to the brim, you wouldn't want any more rain to fall.
Those patches that have missed out in the tropics will get a hammering eventually.. whether it be from a cyclone (my bet is on that) or a whacky trough system.

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#1396708 - 10/12/2016 04:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
For anyone interested, here's a really good presentation by Michael Ventrice where he talks about the MJO, ENSO and how the 2015 El-Nino began:



He does talk about how it effects parts of the USA later too so just skip those parts if you aren't into that as much.

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#1396729 - 10/12/2016 11:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6193
Loc: Central Qld.
So what is next for Australia, El Nino again, La Nina or just neutral ?
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#1396734 - 10/12/2016 12:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1559
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Thanks for the video Mega , Helped to understand it all a bit better.
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#1396765 - 10/12/2016 14:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2191
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Climate change means workdays need to change during heatwaves, public health official warns....

Load of rubbish Climate change means cult.

Small business to large companies will not accepted it they will lose profit and downsize workers and or move somewhere else.

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#1396802 - 10/12/2016 21:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: RC]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6847
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: RC
It is funny is it not.

It seems everything is against it raining.

Not everything.
_________________________
*Kindness is our ally.

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#1396847 - 11/12/2016 14:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Mega]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6847
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Mega
For anyone interested, here's a really good presentation by Michael Ventrice where he talks about the MJO, ENSO and how the 2015 El-Nino began:

Thank you smile .
_________________________
*Kindness is our ally.

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#1396983 - 12/12/2016 21:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6847
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
So what is next for Australia, El Nino again, La Nina or just neutral ?

It's probably a big question; whether that means ENSO actually influences Australia to a great degree I'd say is open to question.

To be honest I'm looking forward to more NWCBs (north-west cloud-bands) and convergence near Java between the East-Coast Coral Sea ridge, and the ridges/troughs progressing west-east through the Indian Ocean.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (12/12/2016 21:36)
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