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#1406493 - 10/02/2017 01:02 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Hope they are wrong.

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#1406521 - 10/02/2017 09:11 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 132
Loc: Noonamah
GFS is still showing low intensification and the low wandering around inland over the Top End for a while before disappearing eastwards. ACCESS Global has it crossing the Top End to the JBG then over to the Kimberley. On its way looks like it will intensify the monsoonal flow along the north coast. Might even bring another TC Carlos situation for Darwin. Coincidentally, the current TC between Madagascar and La Réunion is called Carlos

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#1406840 - 11/02/2017 12:46 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 44
Loc: Jingili Darwin
ACCESS has it moving w/sw pretty quickly.GFS has it sittting just below Darwin for most of the week.Go GFS.

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#1407644 - 14/02/2017 10:51 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24888
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
maybe starting to see a weak low form in the SE GOC? trying to get a bit of rotation going, very weak.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2017 total - 24.8mm (54mm)
December 2017 total - 16.0mm (130mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 848.6mm (1122mm)

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#1407831 - 15/02/2017 17:08 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24888
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 15 February 2017
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 18 February 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low has formed on the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast near the Northern Territory and Queensland border. If the low moves over water the environment is favourable for development with an increased risk of a tropical cyclone forming.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Low.
Saturday:Moderate.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2017 total - 24.8mm (54mm)
December 2017 total - 16.0mm (130mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 848.6mm (1122mm)

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#1407838 - 15/02/2017 17:53 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7777
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Wonder where this one will go? Drift around in the GOC and wash out inland, cross over into QLD or follow the trend this year and move across into WA. Hope it at least delivers a TC to somewhere.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1407888 - 16/02/2017 08:14 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4896
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
It has moved over open water now(a bit quicker than expected?) and is really starting to ramp up from the looks of the radar.

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#1407897 - 16/02/2017 09:07 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Certainly has Brett, the pressure is stable though, but in saying that also falling steadily.

If it edges out to sea a little more... Time will tell!

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#1407902 - 16/02/2017 10:23 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24888
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yes looking nice this morning, models arent doing much with it, just wandering around aimlessly
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2017 total - 24.8mm (54mm)
December 2017 total - 16.0mm (130mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 848.6mm (1122mm)

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#1407934 - 16/02/2017 14:40 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 132
Loc: Noonamah
Although we've been supposed to be going into La Niña from early in the wet season, that has been progressively pushed back in all the forecasts until now when they're saying that in the southern winter it will be either neutral or El Niño. This period of neutral has given us a lot of rain, especially in the north west, but nothing else.

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#1407985 - 16/02/2017 19:32 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 44
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Showing good structure on mornington island radar,with an eye forming.All the models show it doing the bus route around the southern gulf.It would be nice to see it pushed up a bit north by the high that's coming through the bight.

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#1408043 - 17/02/2017 07:01 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3347
Loc: Gordonvale
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 5:01 am EST on Friday 17 February 2017
Headline:

High chance of a Gulf of Carpentaria tropical cyclone this weekend.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

NT/Qld Border to Burketown.
Watch Zone

Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 am AEST [3:30 am ACST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 15 kilometres of 16.6 degrees South 139.2 degrees East, estimated to be 7 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 130 kilometres east of NT/Qld Border.

Movement: southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low situated near Mornington Island is expected to continue moving towards the southwest today and may form into a tropical cyclone by tonight. It is possible that the system may reach category 2 intensity near the Qld/NT border on Saturday, but this will be highly dependent on the system taking a track over water during the next 24 hours.
Hazards:

GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Burketown (Queensland) and the NT/Queensland border today, before possibly extending to Port McArthur (NT) on Saturday. DESTRUCTIVE winds, with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour, may occur near the NT/Queensland border during Saturday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to localised flash flooding, is also possible in areas about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, islands and adjacent inland areas during today and over the weekend.

Abnormally high tides are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast today and over the weekend, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.
Recommended Action:

People between Burketown (Queensland) and the NT/Queensland border should take precautions and listen to the next advice at around 8am AEST.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises communities under Watch between Port McArthur and the Qld/NT border:

- Finalise your emergency kit preparations;

- Clear your premises of potential wind borne missiles;

- Commence home shelter preparations, or decide NOW where you will shelter;

- If your present accommodation is not to code, or you re unsure, you should arrange to shelter with friends, family or in a public shelter or strong building.

- Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities.
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am AEST Friday 17 February [7:30 am ACST Friday 17 February].
_________________________
MTD: 8.9mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1760.1mm

Science doesn't care what you think.

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#1408045 - 17/02/2017 07:08 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3347
Loc: Gordonvale
_________________________
MTD: 8.9mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1760.1mm

Science doesn't care what you think.

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#1409469 - 25/02/2017 13:05 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 44
Loc: Jingili Darwin
A number of sites now showing a low forming in the arafura sea later next week and impacting on Darwin next weekend.

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#1409632 - 26/02/2017 16:44 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 132
Loc: Noonamah
GFS is showing the low moving south through JBG over next weekend but the MJO isn't going to be around to help it.

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#1409678 - 26/02/2017 21:15 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 44
Loc: Jingili Darwin
An Interesting site is windyty which I think is based on gfs ,funky graphics and shows an interesting scenario for Darwin next weekend.Access and gfs now showing the system a little more to the west.

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#1409767 - 27/02/2017 12:04 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 132
Loc: Noonamah
You can select between GFS and EC on that windyty site.

As we're moving towards the weekend the models seem to down play that low a little. Then again, still nearly a week out so the models could change their 'minds' again - either direction.

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#1410034 - 28/02/2017 19:22 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 44
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Thanks for the advice on the model selection on windyty Tropic breeze.Looks like all the models are showing a land crossing of the low over the top end.Should bring some nice monsoonall showers.But the way the models have been quickly changing we will just have to wait and see.

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#1410192 - 01/03/2017 16:14 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2362
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 1 March 2017
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 4 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A developing Tropical Low is located in the northeast Arafura Sea, about 450km north of Nhulunbuy. The low is expected to move southwest through the Arafura Sea and towards the north coast of the Northern Territory. It has a moderate chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone from Saturday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Low.
Saturday:Moderate.

The Tropical Low is expected to continue moving southwest towards the Timor Sea later in the weekend and early next week.
_________________________
US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1410251 - 01/03/2017 22:04 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 44
Loc: Jingili Darwin
While theirs a lot of uncertainty about this system at least we have something to be interested in ,sorry QLD.

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