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#1410583 - 03/03/2017 17:45 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
No worries Mick. Written text can be interpreted wrong some times. I wouldn't call it arguments. I guess I was a little surprised at what was written. I guess after 11 years of having some fun some cant actually just see it as that and get all upset instead. I little rivalry is OK. State of Origin Weatherzone style.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1410584 - 03/03/2017 17:48 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Anyway The ole wzone is just about done really for me. Have tried holding it up for years in the west, will be a pity when there is no one left to contribute.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1410596 - 03/03/2017 18:36 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Okay, back to business.


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#1410599 - 03/03/2017 18:41 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 4:45 pm ACST on Friday 03 March 2017
Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Watch issued for Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

None.
Watch Zone

Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 7.9 degrees South 132.8 degrees East, estimated to be 360 kilometres north of Croker Island and 545 kilometres north northeast of Darwin.

Movement: west at 11 kilometres per hour.

A Tropical Low is slowly developing in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to move towards the south or southwest during the weekend and may form into a tropical cyclone to the north of the Tiwi Islands on Sunday.
Hazards:

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop over coastal and island communities between Croker Island on Cobourg Peninsula and Cape Fourcroy on the Tiwi Islands during Sunday.

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#1410617 - 03/03/2017 19:37 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Popeye]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Anyway The ole wzone is just about done really for me. Have tried holding it up for years in the west, will be a pity when there is no one left to contribute.

Which is why the NT and WA threads are so barren Popeye because if its not happening in the East it aint worth talking about.
Love your posts mate so hang in there for a little longer wink

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#1410623 - 03/03/2017 19:59 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
What a sad season all round when the western crew are rubbing the Qlders face in it because they might get a cat 1 or 2 cyclone.


Ain't that the truth. 1 QLD cyclone for WA so far and maybe a QLD cyclone for the NT soon if they get lucky. The gulf one was so bad I have already forgotten if it made the grade.

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#1410631 - 03/03/2017 21:14 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
The way these little cells are motoring through now, this low seems to be spinning up quite nicely this evening.

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#1410633 - 03/03/2017 21:20 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: gecko]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Originally Posted By: gecko
The way these little cells are motoring through now, this low seems to be spinning up quite nicely this evening.

Yeh agree Gecko. Just got nuked here in Palmy with bolts galore

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#1410636 - 03/03/2017 21:38 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
The Doo crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 76
Loc: Hedland-Darwin NT
Plenty around us in H/Doo, none of it getting us. :-(

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#1410638 - 03/03/2017 21:45 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: The Doo crew]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Originally Posted By: The Doo crew
Plenty around us in H/Doo, none of it getting us. :-(


Looks like you might get the next one.

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#1410810 - 04/03/2017 23:01 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
The Doo crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 76
Loc: Hedland-Darwin NT
Making up for it tonight, 60+mm in 24hrs.

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#1419016 - 29/03/2017 17:43 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
MT picking up again -

ropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:18 pm CST on Wednesday 29 March 2017
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 1 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the Northern Region. The monsoon trough is expected to develop in the Arafura Sea on Friday. A low is expected to form in the monsoon trough and drift westwards over the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Very Low.
Saturday:Very Low.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1419039 - 29/03/2017 18:15 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Port Hedland
I was just reading that Mick..I wonder if anything will come of it.

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#1420210 - 31/03/2017 16:15 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
There's a strong ridge pushing into the Bight. That's going to be pushing everything away to the north which is why BOM wouldn't be predicting the monsoon trough to come down over land. But the season's not over yet, Monica came through right at the end of April.

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#1421036 - 08/04/2017 16:13 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Interesting outlook from BoM

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 8 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 11 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 1005 hPa, is located within an active monsoon trough in the Arafura Sea near 7.4S 133E, about 520 km northwest of Maningrida. The low is likely to move slowly westward before gradually strengthening later in the weekend and early next week as it turns south or southwest towards the Timor Sea. There is uncertainty in the future movement of the low. If the low moves towards the south it could affect the northwest Top End including the Tiwi Islands early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:
Low.
Monday:
Moderate.
Tuesday:
Moderate.

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#1421062 - 08/04/2017 21:35 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
JTWC have picked up on the low to our north, invest 96S. Most of the models have it coming down to the Tiwis and then heading south west into the north Kimberley.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 133.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080623Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE (LLCC). A 080054Z (METOP-B) ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20-25 KNOTS (WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS) ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29C) SSTS, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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#1421096 - 09/04/2017 12:16 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Access and EC have the system over the Tiwi Islands and Darwin.GFS has it passing a bit to the west of the Tiwis.Either way we are going to get some interesting weather for a day or two.

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#1422413 - 28/04/2017 08:44 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Although all talk is about the dry season being just about ready to jump us EC and GFS are showing some activity stirring up in the Solomon Sea end of next week. Although that's still a long way off, the strong ridging which we normally get this time of year could steer anything from that area towards us. Might be something to watch.

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