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#1397312 - 15/12/2016 15:01 NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
First post.Hi!Gfs and elders Synoptics look interesting for Darwin next Wednesday and Thursday,Pity I'll. be in bali


Edited by Mick10 (25/12/2016 18:41)

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#1397324 - 15/12/2016 16:37 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
The Doo crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 76
Loc: Hedland-Darwin NT
The rest of us will be enjoying the cooling breeze & rain at home.


Edited by The Doo crew (15/12/2016 16:38)

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#1397430 - 16/12/2016 23:30 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24743
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
models have been toying with it for a week, finally getting some consensus.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
July 2017 total - 2.8mm (14mm)
August 2017 total - 4.0mm (18mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 705.0mm (1122mm)

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#1398640 - 25/12/2016 18:42 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24743
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Models now turning to a liw in the GOC over new years weekend. Doesnt form into cyclone but brings some decent rain with it. Likely scenario is a west ward system into the central NT
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
July 2017 total - 2.8mm (14mm)
August 2017 total - 4.0mm (18mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 705.0mm (1122mm)

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#1398642 - 25/12/2016 18:51 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
I was lookong at it this morning mick and it was borderline cyclone on a couple of the runs. Around that 990 mark. South or SW seemed likely but i think CMC had it scooting across the peninsula. Certainly worth keeping an eye on.

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#1399436 - 30/12/2016 08:51 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Brett Guy]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
GFS has it spending about a day over the gulf but bom now has a low forming near the tiwi islands then tracking down to the Kimberley

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#1401013 - 07/01/2017 17:29 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24743
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:23 pm CST on Saturday 7 January 2017
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 10 January 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak Tropical Low, 1001 hPa, is located in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria.
The low will remain slow moving during Sunday and Monday and is expected to move back inland across the Northern Territory, reducing the risk of a tropical cyclone developing.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:Low.
Monday:Low.
Tuesday:Very Low.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
July 2017 total - 2.8mm (14mm)
August 2017 total - 4.0mm (18mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 705.0mm (1122mm)

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#1401119 - 08/01/2017 14:14 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
Certainly has a swirl up in the GOC now. Again land interaction will ease the threat of any cyclone development you would think but gee another couple of days over water in there and it would be game on smile

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#1403286 - 20/01/2017 12:06 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Next week is looking good for some action .acces has a low forming near Gove then moving west off the north coast.GFS has one forming near groote and moving west over land.It will bring some interesting weather either way.Something for Popeye and the other westies to get interested in.

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#1403485 - 21/01/2017 14:16 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
No change in the models so far. But no sign yet of a low forming to kick off the proceedings.

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#1403604 - 22/01/2017 14:11 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Gove radar showing some circulation.

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#1403617 - 22/01/2017 17:18 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
Nullschool wind map has rotation with centre at 15.45 Deg S and 138.26 Deg E.looks good with infeed from the North West

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#1403624 - 22/01/2017 18:37 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Gove radar showing a little bit of confusion with the centre,it might develop a little further north than forecast .Next 24 hrs will tell.

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#1403625 - 22/01/2017 19:12 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
The models are showing a pretty docile crossing of the Top End inland and emerging in the JBG before it starts to wind up.

At least I like the the rain this system has been generating today. I started off this morning with only about 60% of my January average up to 9AM today. This afternoon I'm up to 75% already and more keeps coming. By morning hopefully 'My dam runneth over'. Just needs to come up a bit under a metre.

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#1403790 - 24/01/2017 07:44 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Darwin airport 135mm at 6am and it's still coming down.

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#1405319 - 04/02/2017 16:31 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
GFS is showing a TC developing in the GOC middle of next week and crossing the coast around the NT/QLD border. ACCESS Global doesn't have anything there during that period. We'll see what the next few model runs come up with.

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#1405750 - 06/02/2017 16:54 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24743
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 6 February 2017
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 9 February 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

An active monsoon trough extends from the Kimberley, across the central Top End and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. A tropical low is likely to form over the Gulf of Carpentaria during Tuesday or Wednesday. Due to favourable conditions, the tropical low is expected to strengthen and there is a moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity on Thursday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low.
Wednesday:Very Low.
Thursday:Moderate.

sucks for rain desperate Qld that a low in the GOC will likely move SW into the NT.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
July 2017 total - 2.8mm (14mm)
August 2017 total - 4.0mm (18mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 705.0mm (1122mm)

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#1406149 - 08/02/2017 15:40 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Mick10]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6758
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
The low in the Goc could be the one to watch mate.

[img:center]http://www.bom.gov.au/charts_data/IDY201....png?1486512000[/img]


Edited by Mathew (08/02/2017 15:40)
_________________________
Rs tl 2016/17 Wet Season.
Rt: > 5/10/17 6.10mm >
Aug 8/16/2017 > >
> > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm - 6/01/17 0.00mm p 24 h 0.00mm
T now 20.0C > Tm 28.1C minT 19.9C H 72% W 0.0kmG 8.6km BAROMETRIC 762.9mmhg 10:22pm 8/23/17 > re update

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#1406341 - 09/02/2017 13:19 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Can see some rotation in The NE GOC now on Gove radar.

Wind maps show two v weak lows, the NE one and another just off Gove.

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#1406369 - 09/02/2017 15:47 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: gecko]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
The Earth.nullschool site shows the two vortices really well. But a few days down the road indications are it fizzles. They apparently get their data from GFS which also shows the system as dissipating without too much intensification.


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