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#1397312 - 15/12/2016 15:01 NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
First post.Hi!Gfs and elders Synoptics look interesting for Darwin next Wednesday and Thursday,Pity I'll. be in bali


Edited by Mick10 (25/12/2016 18:41)

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#1397324 - 15/12/2016 16:37 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
The Doo crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 76
Loc: Hedland-Darwin NT
The rest of us will be enjoying the cooling breeze & rain at home.


Edited by The Doo crew (15/12/2016 16:38)

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#1397430 - 16/12/2016 23:30 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
models have been toying with it for a week, finally getting some consensus.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1398640 - 25/12/2016 18:42 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Models now turning to a liw in the GOC over new years weekend. Doesnt form into cyclone but brings some decent rain with it. Likely scenario is a west ward system into the central NT
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1398642 - 25/12/2016 18:51 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
I was lookong at it this morning mick and it was borderline cyclone on a couple of the runs. Around that 990 mark. South or SW seemed likely but i think CMC had it scooting across the peninsula. Certainly worth keeping an eye on.

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#1399436 - 30/12/2016 08:51 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Brett Guy]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
GFS has it spending about a day over the gulf but bom now has a low forming near the tiwi islands then tracking down to the Kimberley

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#1401013 - 07/01/2017 17:29 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:23 pm CST on Saturday 7 January 2017
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 10 January 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak Tropical Low, 1001 hPa, is located in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria.
The low will remain slow moving during Sunday and Monday and is expected to move back inland across the Northern Territory, reducing the risk of a tropical cyclone developing.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:Low.
Monday:Low.
Tuesday:Very Low.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1401119 - 08/01/2017 14:14 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Certainly has a swirl up in the GOC now. Again land interaction will ease the threat of any cyclone development you would think but gee another couple of days over water in there and it would be game on smile

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#1403286 - 20/01/2017 12:06 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Next week is looking good for some action .acces has a low forming near Gove then moving west off the north coast.GFS has one forming near groote and moving west over land.It will bring some interesting weather either way.Something for Popeye and the other westies to get interested in.

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#1403485 - 21/01/2017 14:16 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
No change in the models so far. But no sign yet of a low forming to kick off the proceedings.

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#1403604 - 22/01/2017 14:11 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Gove radar showing some circulation.

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#1403617 - 22/01/2017 17:18 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
Nullschool wind map has rotation with centre at 15.45 Deg S and 138.26 Deg E.looks good with infeed from the North West

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#1403624 - 22/01/2017 18:37 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Gove radar showing a little bit of confusion with the centre,it might develop a little further north than forecast .Next 24 hrs will tell.

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#1403625 - 22/01/2017 19:12 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
The models are showing a pretty docile crossing of the Top End inland and emerging in the JBG before it starts to wind up.

At least I like the the rain this system has been generating today. I started off this morning with only about 60% of my January average up to 9AM today. This afternoon I'm up to 75% already and more keeps coming. By morning hopefully 'My dam runneth over'. Just needs to come up a bit under a metre.

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#1403790 - 24/01/2017 07:44 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Darwin airport 135mm at 6am and it's still coming down.

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#1405319 - 04/02/2017 16:31 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
GFS is showing a TC developing in the GOC middle of next week and crossing the coast around the NT/QLD border. ACCESS Global doesn't have anything there during that period. We'll see what the next few model runs come up with.

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#1405750 - 06/02/2017 16:54 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 6 February 2017
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 9 February 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

An active monsoon trough extends from the Kimberley, across the central Top End and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. A tropical low is likely to form over the Gulf of Carpentaria during Tuesday or Wednesday. Due to favourable conditions, the tropical low is expected to strengthen and there is a moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity on Thursday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low.
Wednesday:Very Low.
Thursday:Moderate.

sucks for rain desperate Qld that a low in the GOC will likely move SW into the NT.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1406149 - 08/02/2017 15:40 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Mick10]
Mathew Online   confused
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6751
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
The low in the Goc could be the one to watch mate.

[img:center]http://www.bom.gov.au/charts_data/IDY201....png?1486512000[/img]


Edited by Mathew (08/02/2017 15:40)
_________________________
Rs tl 2016/17 Wet Season.
Rt: > 5/10/17 6.10mm >
Rt: 18 Jan 2017 > >
> > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm - 6/01/17 0.00mm p 24 h 0.00mm
T now 21.6°C > Tm 24.6°C minT 17.1°C H 63% W 0.0km G 6.5km BAROMETRIC 762.1mmhg 9:23pm 6/24/17  > re update

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#1406341 - 09/02/2017 13:19 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Can see some rotation in The NE GOC now on Gove radar.

Wind maps show two v weak lows, the NE one and another just off Gove.

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#1406369 - 09/02/2017 15:47 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: gecko]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
The Earth.nullschool site shows the two vortices really well. But a few days down the road indications are it fizzles. They apparently get their data from GFS which also shows the system as dissipating without too much intensification.


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#1406493 - 10/02/2017 01:02 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Hope they are wrong.

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#1406521 - 10/02/2017 09:11 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
GFS is still showing low intensification and the low wandering around inland over the Top End for a while before disappearing eastwards. ACCESS Global has it crossing the Top End to the JBG then over to the Kimberley. On its way looks like it will intensify the monsoonal flow along the north coast. Might even bring another TC Carlos situation for Darwin. Coincidentally, the current TC between Madagascar and La Réunion is called Carlos

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#1406840 - 11/02/2017 12:46 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
ACCESS has it moving w/sw pretty quickly.GFS has it sittting just below Darwin for most of the week.Go GFS.

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#1407644 - 14/02/2017 10:51 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
maybe starting to see a weak low form in the SE GOC? trying to get a bit of rotation going, very weak.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1407831 - 15/02/2017 17:08 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 15 February 2017
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 18 February 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low has formed on the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast near the Northern Territory and Queensland border. If the low moves over water the environment is favourable for development with an increased risk of a tropical cyclone forming.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Low.
Saturday:Moderate.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1407838 - 15/02/2017 17:53 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Wonder where this one will go? Drift around in the GOC and wash out inland, cross over into QLD or follow the trend this year and move across into WA. Hope it at least delivers a TC to somewhere.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1407888 - 16/02/2017 08:14 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
It has moved over open water now(a bit quicker than expected?) and is really starting to ramp up from the looks of the radar.

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#1407897 - 16/02/2017 09:07 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 278
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Certainly has Brett, the pressure is stable though, but in saying that also falling steadily.

If it edges out to sea a little more... Time will tell!

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#1407902 - 16/02/2017 10:23 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yes looking nice this morning, models arent doing much with it, just wandering around aimlessly
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1407934 - 16/02/2017 14:40 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Although we've been supposed to be going into La Niña from early in the wet season, that has been progressively pushed back in all the forecasts until now when they're saying that in the southern winter it will be either neutral or El Niño. This period of neutral has given us a lot of rain, especially in the north west, but nothing else.

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#1407985 - 16/02/2017 19:32 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Showing good structure on mornington island radar,with an eye forming.All the models show it doing the bus route around the southern gulf.It would be nice to see it pushed up a bit north by the high that's coming through the bight.

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#1408043 - 17/02/2017 07:01 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3184
Loc: Gordonvale
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 5:01 am EST on Friday 17 February 2017
Headline:

High chance of a Gulf of Carpentaria tropical cyclone this weekend.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

NT/Qld Border to Burketown.
Watch Zone

Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 am AEST [3:30 am ACST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 15 kilometres of 16.6 degrees South 139.2 degrees East, estimated to be 7 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 130 kilometres east of NT/Qld Border.

Movement: southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low situated near Mornington Island is expected to continue moving towards the southwest today and may form into a tropical cyclone by tonight. It is possible that the system may reach category 2 intensity near the Qld/NT border on Saturday, but this will be highly dependent on the system taking a track over water during the next 24 hours.
Hazards:

GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Burketown (Queensland) and the NT/Queensland border today, before possibly extending to Port McArthur (NT) on Saturday. DESTRUCTIVE winds, with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour, may occur near the NT/Queensland border during Saturday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to localised flash flooding, is also possible in areas about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, islands and adjacent inland areas during today and over the weekend.

Abnormally high tides are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast today and over the weekend, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.
Recommended Action:

People between Burketown (Queensland) and the NT/Queensland border should take precautions and listen to the next advice at around 8am AEST.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises communities under Watch between Port McArthur and the Qld/NT border:

- Finalise your emergency kit preparations;

- Clear your premises of potential wind borne missiles;

- Commence home shelter preparations, or decide NOW where you will shelter;

- If your present accommodation is not to code, or you re unsure, you should arrange to shelter with friends, family or in a public shelter or strong building.

- Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities.
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am AEST Friday 17 February [7:30 am ACST Friday 17 February].
_________________________
MTD: 22.2mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1266.6mm

Opinion is not fact.

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#1408045 - 17/02/2017 07:08 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3184
Loc: Gordonvale
_________________________
MTD: 22.2mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1266.6mm

Opinion is not fact.

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#1409469 - 25/02/2017 13:05 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
A number of sites now showing a low forming in the arafura sea later next week and impacting on Darwin next weekend.

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#1409632 - 26/02/2017 16:44 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
GFS is showing the low moving south through JBG over next weekend but the MJO isn't going to be around to help it.

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#1409678 - 26/02/2017 21:15 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
An Interesting site is windyty which I think is based on gfs ,funky graphics and shows an interesting scenario for Darwin next weekend.Access and gfs now showing the system a little more to the west.

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#1409767 - 27/02/2017 12:04 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
You can select between GFS and EC on that windyty site.

As we're moving towards the weekend the models seem to down play that low a little. Then again, still nearly a week out so the models could change their 'minds' again - either direction.

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#1410034 - 28/02/2017 19:22 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Thanks for the advice on the model selection on windyty Tropic breeze.Looks like all the models are showing a land crossing of the low over the top end.Should bring some nice monsoonall showers.But the way the models have been quickly changing we will just have to wait and see.

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#1410192 - 01/03/2017 16:14 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 1 March 2017
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 4 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A developing Tropical Low is located in the northeast Arafura Sea, about 450km north of Nhulunbuy. The low is expected to move southwest through the Arafura Sea and towards the north coast of the Northern Territory. It has a moderate chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone from Saturday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Low.
Saturday:Moderate.

The Tropical Low is expected to continue moving southwest towards the Timor Sea later in the weekend and early next week.
_________________________
US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1410251 - 01/03/2017 22:04 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
While theirs a lot of uncertainty about this system at least we have something to be interested in ,sorry QLD.

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#1410302 - 02/03/2017 10:31 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Originally Posted By: darwindix
While theirs a lot of uncertainty about this system at least we have something to be interested in ,sorry QLD.

Yes poor old QLD indeed.
If this was in QLD waters their thread would be up to 26 pages by now but they have had no luck whatsoever this season.
This is an interesting one and is well positioned to impact the NW Top End including Darwin at this stage.

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#1410313 - 02/03/2017 11:53 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3124
Loc: Broome

Yep Queensland in the doldrums alright as far as TC activity goes.
JG have your way with this one if its goes to plan then handball to us so we can have a play as well...thanks.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1410319 - 02/03/2017 12:29 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah I was thinking we should contact admin and put in a special request for a new forum thread especially for QLD called 'Nth Qld Sun season' They could easily hit 100 pages per month.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1410326 - 02/03/2017 13:35 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: JimmyGray]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Originally Posted By: JimmyGray
Originally Posted By: darwindix
While theirs a lot of uncertainty about this system at least we have something to be interested in ,sorry QLD.

Yes poor old QLD indeed.
If this was in QLD waters their thread would be up to 26 pages by now but they have had no luck whatsoever this season.
This is an interesting one and is well positioned to impact the NW Top End including Darwin at this stage.

They haven't had anything yet and up to 12 pages already, they're in a sorry state ;-)

EC has the low crossing the central north coast and moving inland south west, finally exiting somewhere around North West Cape. Both ACCESS and GFS have it moving into JBG/sort of over Darwin Sunday/Monday but not very strong. At the low's current position VWS is around 10 to 15 kts, in the JBG about 20 to 25 kts. From there the low's expected to go generally over the Kimberley and exit into the ocean around Broome or a bit further south.

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#1410329 - 02/03/2017 13:50 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Who would you put your money on Tropicbreeze ,access ,gfs or ec?

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#1410386 - 02/03/2017 18:10 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Timing looks fairly similar between the deterministic runs of the American and European models with EC passing a system near/over Darwin on Sunday afternoon while the GFS keeps it a bit further to the west. Both models go on to make landfall in the northern Kimberley at TC strength.



_________________________
US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1410395 - 02/03/2017 18:49 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Balcony chase mate? Easy.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1410408 - 02/03/2017 19:29 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
EC now showing direct hit on Darwin as low cat 1. GFS as a lows west to Darwin as a cat1 or 2

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#1410427 - 02/03/2017 20:26 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Originally Posted By: darwindix
Who would you put your money on Tropicbreeze ,access ,gfs or ec?

It's 96S Invest now. Everyone has jumped in now but I was going to say GFS, which is a bit further offshore in the JBG. I'd like it to stay a bit weaker and stall for a while in the Gulf but the models move it through fairly quickly. More monsoon and less build-up/knock'em down!

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#1410466 - 03/03/2017 00:23 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: JimmyGray]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: JimmyGray
Originally Posted By: darwindix
While theirs a lot of uncertainty about this system at least we have something to be interested in ,sorry QLD.

Yes poor old QLD indeed.
If this was in QLD waters their thread would be up to 26 pages by now but they have had no luck whatsoever this season.
This is an interesting one and is well positioned to impact the NW Top End including Darwin at this stage.


Considering how this season has panned out, i wouldnt go counting my TCs before they have formed.
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2015/16 Storms
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#1410504 - 03/03/2017 10:07 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Popeye]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4038
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Yeah I was thinking we should contact admin and put in a special request for a new forum thread especially for QLD called 'Nth Qld Sun season' They could easily hit 100 pages per month.


I would be happy to partake in that! i seem to have forgotten what that strange glowing orb in the sky looks like.
We have only had 15 rain free days so far this year. smile wink
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#1410506 - 03/03/2017 10:16 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yasi don't be mean to all the other Qlders. I hope the crew from Townsville don't see that post of yours. They might delete it. lol
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#1410513 - 03/03/2017 10:30 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Is this discussion about Cyclones or Townsville or Queensland?

There is a dedicated thread to the Coral sea with 20+ pages as pointed out above by a certain member.



Edited by Dawgggg (03/03/2017 10:30)
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#1410514 - 03/03/2017 10:30 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Considering how this season has panned out, i wouldnt go counting my TCs before they have formed.

I reckon Trav. You guys must be sitting on a nest of eggs that were nurtured right through to hatching but never did.
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#1410515 - 03/03/2017 10:35 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Is this discussion about Cyclones or Townsville or Queensland? There is a dedicated thread to the Coral sea with 20+ pages as pointed out above by a certain member.


Everything is linked up in the broadscale patterns this system could actually influence the weather over that way in the form of hot, dry air. Just trying to include you guys a bit more in some action this year that's all.
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#1410517 - 03/03/2017 10:37 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Dawgggg]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Originally Posted By: JimmyGray
Originally Posted By: darwindix
While theirs a lot of uncertainty about this system at least we have something to be interested in ,sorry QLD.

Yes poor old QLD indeed.
If this was in QLD waters their thread would be up to 26 pages by now but they have had no luck whatsoever this season.
This is an interesting one and is well positioned to impact the NW Top End including Darwin at this stage.


Considering how this season has panned out, i wouldnt go counting my TCs before they have formed.

Very true mate but we all know that if this was in QLD waters you guys would have named it by now as a marginal Cat 2 poke

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#1410522 - 03/03/2017 10:50 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2499
Loc: Buderim
What a sad season all round when the western crew are rubbing the Qlders face in it because they might get a cat 1 or 2 cyclone.

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#1410529 - 03/03/2017 11:22 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
If this thing forms up 100kms further West or gets a slight nudge for 12 hrs here or there it has the potential to sit just off the Coast skirting down around the Nth and West Kimberley. Possibly being a bit wishful there but nudge GFS that 100kms west and that is the outcome.
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#1410534 - 03/03/2017 11:37 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 322
Loc: Broome, WA
Access still seems to be taking that path as well.... but based on GFS and EC both now prefty close to agreement it is probably wishful thinking. Just hope it brings some rain to bring the heat down a bit.

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#1410561 - 03/03/2017 15:28 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Yasi don't be mean to all the other Qlders. I hope the crew from Townsville don't see that post of yours. They might delete it. lol


Just those posts that are deliberately put in a thread to troll. Now stop trying to pick arguments and keep it on topic.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1410583 - 03/03/2017 17:45 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
No worries Mick. Written text can be interpreted wrong some times. I wouldn't call it arguments. I guess I was a little surprised at what was written. I guess after 11 years of having some fun some cant actually just see it as that and get all upset instead. I little rivalry is OK. State of Origin Weatherzone style.
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#1410584 - 03/03/2017 17:48 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Anyway The ole wzone is just about done really for me. Have tried holding it up for years in the west, will be a pity when there is no one left to contribute.
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#1410596 - 03/03/2017 18:36 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Okay, back to business.


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#1410599 - 03/03/2017 18:41 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 4:45 pm ACST on Friday 03 March 2017
Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Watch issued for Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

None.
Watch Zone

Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 7.9 degrees South 132.8 degrees East, estimated to be 360 kilometres north of Croker Island and 545 kilometres north northeast of Darwin.

Movement: west at 11 kilometres per hour.

A Tropical Low is slowly developing in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to move towards the south or southwest during the weekend and may form into a tropical cyclone to the north of the Tiwi Islands on Sunday.
Hazards:

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop over coastal and island communities between Croker Island on Cobourg Peninsula and Cape Fourcroy on the Tiwi Islands during Sunday.

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#1410617 - 03/03/2017 19:37 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Popeye]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Anyway The ole wzone is just about done really for me. Have tried holding it up for years in the west, will be a pity when there is no one left to contribute.

Which is why the NT and WA threads are so barren Popeye because if its not happening in the East it aint worth talking about.
Love your posts mate so hang in there for a little longer wink

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#1410623 - 03/03/2017 19:59 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
What a sad season all round when the western crew are rubbing the Qlders face in it because they might get a cat 1 or 2 cyclone.


Ain't that the truth. 1 QLD cyclone for WA so far and maybe a QLD cyclone for the NT soon if they get lucky. The gulf one was so bad I have already forgotten if it made the grade.

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#1410631 - 03/03/2017 21:14 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
The way these little cells are motoring through now, this low seems to be spinning up quite nicely this evening.

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#1410633 - 03/03/2017 21:20 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: gecko]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Originally Posted By: gecko
The way these little cells are motoring through now, this low seems to be spinning up quite nicely this evening.

Yeh agree Gecko. Just got nuked here in Palmy with bolts galore

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#1410636 - 03/03/2017 21:38 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
The Doo crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 76
Loc: Hedland-Darwin NT
Plenty around us in H/Doo, none of it getting us. :-(

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#1410638 - 03/03/2017 21:45 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: The Doo crew]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Originally Posted By: The Doo crew
Plenty around us in H/Doo, none of it getting us. :-(


Looks like you might get the next one.

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#1410810 - 04/03/2017 23:01 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
The Doo crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 76
Loc: Hedland-Darwin NT
Making up for it tonight, 60+mm in 24hrs.

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#1419016 - 29/03/2017 17:43 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
MT picking up again -

ropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:18 pm CST on Wednesday 29 March 2017
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 1 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the Northern Region. The monsoon trough is expected to develop in the Arafura Sea on Friday. A low is expected to form in the monsoon trough and drift westwards over the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Very Low.
Saturday:Very Low.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1419039 - 29/03/2017 18:15 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Port Hedland
I was just reading that Mick..I wonder if anything will come of it.

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#1420210 - 31/03/2017 16:15 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
There's a strong ridge pushing into the Bight. That's going to be pushing everything away to the north which is why BOM wouldn't be predicting the monsoon trough to come down over land. But the season's not over yet, Monica came through right at the end of April.

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#1421036 - 08/04/2017 16:13 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Interesting outlook from BoM

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 8 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 11 April 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 1005 hPa, is located within an active monsoon trough in the Arafura Sea near 7.4S 133E, about 520 km northwest of Maningrida. The low is likely to move slowly westward before gradually strengthening later in the weekend and early next week as it turns south or southwest towards the Timor Sea. There is uncertainty in the future movement of the low. If the low moves towards the south it could affect the northwest Top End including the Tiwi Islands early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:
Low.
Monday:
Moderate.
Tuesday:
Moderate.

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#1421062 - 08/04/2017 21:35 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
JTWC have picked up on the low to our north, invest 96S. Most of the models have it coming down to the Tiwis and then heading south west into the north Kimberley.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 133.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080623Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE (LLCC). A 080054Z (METOP-B) ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20-25 KNOTS (WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS) ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29C) SSTS, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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#1421096 - 09/04/2017 12:16 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Access and EC have the system over the Tiwi Islands and Darwin.GFS has it passing a bit to the west of the Tiwis.Either way we are going to get some interesting weather for a day or two.

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#1422413 - 28/04/2017 08:44 Re: NT and GOC cyclone season 2016-17 [Re: darwindix]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Although all talk is about the dry season being just about ready to jump us EC and GFS are showing some activity stirring up in the Solomon Sea end of next week. Although that's still a long way off, the strong ridging which we normally get this time of year could steer anything from that area towards us. Might be something to watch.

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