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#1396835 - 11/12/2016 12:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 895
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Thanks Gus! guess there are no peanut vans in Vancouver? i could do with some of the roasted in the shell here now. , sitting out on balcony in the heart of monument valley , temp dropped as sun set 6c to 1c in last 90mins. Have fun in Canada. And a friendly hello to all the wz locals back home. Someone go mow my lawn pls. Still cannot Blv I've missed all this seasons stormage back home. November really let me down. Fingers crossed for another blast in the xmas new yr period.

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#1396843 - 11/12/2016 13:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2876
Loc: Yatala, Gold Coast QLD
All good Big T just garden variety SEQ/NNSW storm action.

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#1396893 - 12/12/2016 07:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4310
Latest EC's currently suggesting the next southerly change might sweep through around next weekend with some instability ahead of it. Will have to wait a few more days to see what any thunderstorm potential is like.

Meanwhile here's the latest temps (1st map) and precip (2nd map) outlooks for next month generated by 7 of the US and Canadian models (calibrated to past observations).

It currently seems to have a general lean towards lower than normal rainfall over parts of eastern Australia but the probabilities aren't as high as those for temps so uncertainty is greater.
The usual rules apply i.e there can be wetter periods during the month which buck the overall trend, some areas may be a lot wetter than others depending on where thunderstorms occur, and it only take one unforecast decent TC or decent low to throw this out:





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#1396921 - 12/12/2016 11:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 796
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast

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#1396928 - 12/12/2016 12:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2652
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Hahaha, I think the lad needs to invest in a newer crystal ball model.
Weather around here looks a bit optimistic in a weeks time with another upper trough.
GFS as usual sticking its neck out.
Its been great cool weather last few days, pity it wont last, but WOW, isnt the grass growing quick.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (12/12/2016 12:25)

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#1396929 - 12/12/2016 12:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1407
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Absolute fail. My god man, stop looking at the moon smile
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1396948 - 12/12/2016 15:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6233
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I don't know why the media still give him the time of day tbh.

Anyway, starting to look more unsettled from the weekend onwards.

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#1396980 - 12/12/2016 20:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17197
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Does anyone have a precip forecast model link from EC please?
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#1396981 - 12/12/2016 21:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6233
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Does anyone have a precip forecast model link from EC please?


Well since Wundermap is broken I've been using https://www.windytv.com for EC precip.

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#1396984 - 12/12/2016 21:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17197
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
I have that one . Thanks anyway.
_________________________
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#1397240 - 14/12/2016 17:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2876
Loc: Yatala, Gold Coast QLD
This weekend we could see the return of some instability, probably not much in rainfall but things just starting to look more active.

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#1397375 - 16/12/2016 10:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Golden State Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 191
Loc: Buderim
So we go through an El Niño period for a couple of years and it's drier than usual.. then the El Niño 'weakens' or whatever and we shift towards a La Niña / neutral pattern, but it gets even drier .... what a time to be alive
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It's never going to rain again, ever...

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#1397395 - 16/12/2016 14:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Golden State]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1712
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Sunday sees a very strong southerly change push up the coast. Most models bring a strong band of rain up the coast with it, EC is particularly aggressive. I think it'd be more rain than storm action, but there's enough ingredients in there for a surprise.

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#1397396 - 16/12/2016 14:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
DarrylS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 105
Loc: Camp Hill, QLD
The BOM currently have the Brisbane area down for 'the chance of a thunderstorm' from Saturday / Sunday, then Tuesday to Thursday of next week. Apart from the chance on Sunday that Nature's Fury mentioned above, are any of those days looking particularly good at this stage, or is it a case of 'maybe, but highly unlikely'?
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Camp Hill, Brisbane
View live weather station data: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IQUEENSL152

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#1397400 - 16/12/2016 14:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Golden State Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 191
Loc: Buderim
^ highly unlikely... downgrade imminent
_________________________
It's never going to rain again, ever...

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#1397407 - 16/12/2016 18:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2652
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Its been damn muggy & overcast all day.
At one time this arvo, thought the clouds might turn.
Interesting next couple days me thinks & then theres next week, hope santa gona carry a bagfull of rain.

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#1397408 - 16/12/2016 18:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1539
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Few cells firing up around Roma and a cell heading for St George. Be good to get something in the gauge.
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BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1397422 - 16/12/2016 21:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mezo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/12/2011
Posts: 714
Loc: Under the Meso (or Springfield...
Tuesday through Friday is worth keeping an eye on. GFS has been steady on a lingering trough through nsw/qld through that period for a few days worth of runs now. Unfortunately the good shear doesn't quite line up with the deep instability for us, but its better than nothing and I'm now in holidays for 3 weeks so I'll take what i can get.
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OzStorms | GT Photography

Springfield Weather Obs

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#1397423 - 16/12/2016 21:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2876
Loc: Yatala, Gold Coast QLD
Hopefully Doug out that way gets some of the wet stuff, as for tomorrow there could be a fairly good chance of at least some showers around later afternoon maybe a bit sooner. Morning inversion looks only slight could expect something to fire early but if its cloudy probably later.


Edited by Steve O (16/12/2016 21:02)

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#1397426 - 16/12/2016 22:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6233
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Well at least EC has ditched the humongous low it had in the Tasman Sea the last few runs, when I saw that I had to slap myself to remind me this isn't bloody winter anymore. All models are now throwing up a large, slow moving upper level trough around xmas time, but of course don't agree on placement yet. As usual if it's off the coast we get nothing, if its inland then we usually see enhanced rainfall one way or another.

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