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#1397451 - 17/12/2016 11:57 NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5157
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Models seem to be showing that Sydney and other coastal areas may not get the traditional cool and wet Christmas day weather.

My predictions for Sydney:

Xmas Eve- Warm and humid with possible showers and moderate N to NEly winds. Min 20C, max 26C.

Xmas Day- Mostly sunny with light N/NW winds tending light NE'ly. Late southerly change. Min 20C, max 29C.

Boxing Day- Humid and mostly cloudy with possible showers. Early southerly winds tending E to NEly. Min 19C, max 24C.

New Years Day- Warm and sunny with moderate northerly winds tending moderate to fresh NEly. Min 19C, max 28C.

Forecast is very similar for Albion Park but temps different:

24th- Min 17C, max 28C
25th- Min 19C, max 32C
26th- Min 18C, max 24C
1st- Min 17C, max 29C


Edited by Wave Rider (17/12/2016 12:00)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 12

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd

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#1397475 - 17/12/2016 16:59 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3032
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I find the Weather Channel forecast is often good. It was forecasting a max of 19 for Thursday when the BOM was going for low 20s. I am not sure weather the prediction is for OH. It might be the Airport:

Sydney 10 Day forecast

This has Sydney warm, humid and partly cloudy for the 24th, 25th and 26th with highs of 26, 27 and 27. It's going for a pair of 30+ days in Christmas week and a max of 28 on News Years' Eve where it ends.

This is reasonably consistent with my interpretation of GFS in the few days up to yesterday morning, but since then, GFS has flipped over and planted a strong high in the Bight that would dominate Sydney's weather from Boxing Day. The high slithers away to the South of Tasmania, to be followed by another one, leaving room for an ECL to form on the 27th and another on New Years' Day. The Sydney to Hobart fleet would have to battle into the teeth of a strong Southerly and the next few days look a write-off for holiday weather.

But hopefully it flips again to something else.

Access seems to be consistent with a warm, humid 24th and 25th and a strong Southerly change on Boxing Day, where it ends. The Bight high seems to be moving reasonably, so maybe back to warm and humid in a day or so. Too early to tell for New Year.

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#1397485 - 17/12/2016 18:08 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3032
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Is the past a guide to the future? A couple of years ago I put Christmas Day max temps for Bankstown in Sydney's West into a spreasheet. I just updated it. The results:

1. For the 20 Christmas Days 1996-2015, the average max was 27.9, compared with the December average of 27.3 and the January average of 28.2. So, on average, Christmas has been pretty average for maxima at that location and probably for Sydney and nearby areas overall.

2. Hottest was 39.0 in 2004.

3. Coolest was 20.8 on THREE occasions 2007, 2012 and 2013.

4. It reached 30 on seven occasions (35%)

5. It failed to reach 24 on five (25%)

Using maximum temperature as a proxy for what it was like, the five that failed to reach 24 degrees (some 24 km from the open sea) were likely to be cloudy to overcast with probably blustery winds from the SE quarter and likely also showery - what most Sydneysiders think of as crap holiday weather. The other 15 were probably OK but some would have been too hot for many people.

Of course, numbers can be misleading, in weather as in politics and business. Christmas 2009 was warm and humid before a cool change arrived around 11:00AM, with the rest of the day being increasingly cool and wet. History shows the max was 29.1.

Here are the numbers:
Code:
1996	31.7		2003	25.0		2010	30.6
1997	27.4		2004	39.0		2011	28.4
1998	28.2		2005	32.0		2012	20.8
1999	23.2		2006	26.8		2013	20.8
2000	35.2		2007	20.8		2014	30.9
2001	34.1		2008	25.5		2015	25.7
2002	22.2		2009	29.1			

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#1397496 - 17/12/2016 19:50 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: Steve777]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2561
Loc: Lindfield, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Is the past a guide to the future? A couple of years ago I put Christmas Day max temps for Bankstown in Sydney's West into a spreasheet. I just updated it. The results:

1. For the 20 Christmas Days 1996-2015, the average max was 27.9, compared with the December average of 27.3 and the January average of 28.2. So, on average, Christmas has been pretty average for maxima at that location and probably for Sydney and nearby areas overall.

2. Hottest was 39.0 in 2004.

3. Coolest was 20.8 on THREE occasions 2007, 2012 and 2013.

4. It reached 30 on seven occasions (35%)

5. It failed to reach 24 on five (25%)

Using maximum temperature as a proxy for what it was like, the five that failed to reach 24 degrees (some 24 km from the open sea) were likely to be cloudy to overcast with probably blustery winds from the SE quarter and likely also showery - what most Sydneysiders think of as crap holiday weather. The other 15 were probably OK but some would have been too hot for many people.

Of course, numbers can be misleading, in weather as in politics and business. Christmas 2009 was warm and humid before a cool change arrived around 11:00AM, with the rest of the day being increasingly cool and wet. History shows the max was 29.1.

Here are the numbers:
Code:
1996	31.7		2003	25.0		2010	30.6
1997	27.4		2004	39.0		2011	28.4
1998	28.2		2005	32.0		2012	20.8
1999	23.2		2006	26.8		2013	20.8
2000	35.2		2007	20.8		2014	30.9
2001	34.1		2008	25.5		2015	25.7
2002	22.2		2009	29.1			



Nice analysis there Steve777, but are you sure that 39c wasn't 2003? In my mind that was the last really hot Christmas day I recall in Sydney. I was working in Gordon at the time and remember us having Christmas lunch outside in the hot gusty wind, or perhaps its just my faulty memory and it was 04. One thing is for sure and that is that this Christmas will not even come close.

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#1397500 - 17/12/2016 20:24 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3032
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
You are right. I seem to have scrambled 2002, 2003 and 2004. No one picked it up 3 years ago.

I will recheck the whole spreadsheet later tonight or tomorrow morning.

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#1397516 - 17/12/2016 22:28 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5157
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Awesome stats Steve, jeez we had some terrible Christmases in recent years with rain in 2011-13 and those cold temps two years in a row.
However 2014 marked a change with quite a pleasant day of weather which I remember clearly. I was at Nelson Bay and we actually got a storm though. I think 2015 was okay from memory but I can't really recall it tbh. So 2016 should continue the new trend of good Christmas weather.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 12

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd

Top
#1397531 - 18/12/2016 08:14 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3032
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
OK let's fix the table in my post above. I listed 2002/3/4 in the wrong sequence. I also transcribed 2013 incorrectly. It should be 21.0, not 20.8.

The errors do not affect the average or the comments. Here is the whole table again:

Code:
1996	31.7		2003	39.0		2010	30.6
1997	27.4		2004	22.2		2011	28.4
1998	28.2		2005	32.0		2012	20.8
1999	23.2		2006	26.8		2013	21.0
2000	35.2		2007	20.8		2014	30.9
2001	34.1		2008	25.5		2015	25.7
2002	25.0		2009	29.1			

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#1397705 - 19/12/2016 15:34 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3032
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
GFS has flipped back to warm / hot for Christmas week but might change again. Access and EC at this stage seem to support GFS.

NAEFS shows a warm signal for Eastern Australia for Christmas week:

NAEFS Temperatures

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#1397711 - 19/12/2016 15:56 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: Wave Rider]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1816
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Changing so that a big rain event will affect Sydney Jan 3-7.

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#1399668 - 31/12/2016 16:53 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: Wave Rider]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1816
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Well the post Xmas week was a hot one. Kudos to the models that picked it.

We just have to hope that the marine mould either clears this evening or at least has a high base. The fireworks won't be much chop if the cloud gets in the way.

The next critical weather period is the Sydney test. Not looking very promising. Can't be any worse than last year though.

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#1399677 - 31/12/2016 17:39 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5157
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Unfortunately it doesn't have a high base because it is covering the tops of the escarpment here. It's very low actually, I'd guess about 400m high. Hopefully it's a bit higher in Sydney.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 12

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd

Top
#1399679 - 31/12/2016 17:56 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4861
Loc: Dural
Probably about the same here WR.

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#1399685 - 31/12/2016 18:38 Re: NSW Christmas and New Year weather predictions [Re: Homer]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5157
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Probably about the same here WR.


I reckon it's now under 300m, nearly to the bottom of the mountains which is unfortunate. Usually only like this when it rains and in fact I'm amazed that we don't even have drizzle. Edit: Actually it's the finest drizzle one could ever imagine.


Edited by Wave Rider (31/12/2016 18:41)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 12

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd

Top


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