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#1397542 - 18/12/2016 11:47 SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1649
Loc: Uleybury
I've done this before and got results so here's going.

Maps are suggesting a fairly hot air mass to be driven down to most parts of SA thanks to a High to sit in the Tasman for a few days. Length wise is still unknown and how it would eventuate but something to watch as well.

This stage EC and GFS are keen on this heat spike with possibly Christmas day looking around 37-41 (39 average) with low 40s over the next few days after, temperatures as high as 46 possible on the West Coast. EC on WZ possibly hinting 43-44 NYE but depends on that SW change it has. That map is keen on at least 4 days of 40+.

Tad early to say but looks like we could be going out with a Bang.

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#1397547 - 18/12/2016 12:35 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 541
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Looking at weatherzone maps for southern sa at least, shows south east wind on xmas day.
With my limited knowledge, 39 doubtfull maybe?

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#1397549 - 18/12/2016 12:50 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1615
Loc: Bridgewater
i think we'll get 39 but more like new years day
i'm going 29 for xmas in adel.

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#1397560 - 18/12/2016 14:13 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yer totally ignoring the models cos they have been crap and even worse this week as the cyclone will throw them out a fair bit. Possibly a little premature on this thread for that very reason. I mean last week they couldn't get a system right 24 hours out....
IMO Can't see it being too hot Xmas day... mid to high 20's for me... maybe couple of hot days following then possibility of a bit of rain/storms before New Years.

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#1397562 - 18/12/2016 14:21 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7214
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: teckert
Yer totally ignoring the models cos they have been crap and even worse this week as the cyclone will throw them out a fair bit. Possibly a little premature on this thread for that very reason. I mean last week they couldn't get a system right 24 hours out....
IMO Can't see it being too hot Xmas day... mid to high 20's for me... maybe couple of hot days following then possibility of a bit of rain/storms before New Years.

Mostly agree on paying little attention to the models...prefer to rely on own forecasting principles requiring observation input smile . Speaking of which I agree somewhat about rain/storms this Christmas-New Year Period smile .
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#1397594 - 18/12/2016 17:30 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
Forecast is flawless for Christmas - touch wood.

All this talk of mid-20's and it's not going to happen and such is making me nauseous.

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#1397595 - 18/12/2016 17:33 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1615
Loc: Bridgewater
depending on if/where the cyclone forms. it might push a lot of hot air down south

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#1397596 - 18/12/2016 17:35 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: Eevo]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
Originally Posted By: Eevo
depending on if/where the cyclone forms. it might push a lot of hot air down south


Damn thing better behave itself. If I see the models flipping to southerlies I will have to be hospitalised mad

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#1397603 - 18/12/2016 18:18 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1649
Loc: Uleybury
BoM having 37 for Xmas Day for Adelaide

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#1397671 - 19/12/2016 10:10 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Certainly looking like our hottest few days since last summer now. While EC brings the cyclone inland further bringing the ridge right over us and sending temps into the 40's... GFS mayeb not quite as hot.
The unknown factor though still is the cyclone as that could still vary what actually happen by a great amount.

As for the rain event - this is looking huge if you go by ACCESS and a few other models.... will post more on that in the day to day thread as we get closer.

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#1397683 - 19/12/2016 12:07 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
The Christmas period is looking more and more incredible with every passing day.

Hilariously cold at the airport station last night, overnight low a mere 9.0C, meanwhile I recorded 17.1C. That's the biggest difference since I set up my PWS back in January. Amazing what some wetlands, river, town and vegetation does vs a flat plain.


Edited by Galaxyman (19/12/2016 12:08)

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#1397837 - 20/12/2016 17:00 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 541
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
BOM going for 40 now Christmas day....and Monday

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#1397844 - 20/12/2016 18:02 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
Latest forecast is epic and legendary! So epic I have to drink beer to fully appreciate it. Four days over 40C with a 30C min in the mix grin Tonight's GFS update keeps us firmly in the heat on Wednesday 28th.

Man, I have to get on the phone and order a tanker full of beer right now grin

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#1397884 - 20/12/2016 20:58 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 181
Loc: Reynella, SA
Mid next week is shaping up to look interesting. Looks like a potential deluge of storms on the BOM ten day synoptics.

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#1397898 - 20/12/2016 22:44 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Absolutely drooling at GFS, EC, and ACCESS for the 27-28th'ish

If it comes off, my goodness, BCF will sell out of inflatable boats!
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The drops start dropping.
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Then the storm starts stopping"
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#1397902 - 20/12/2016 22:55 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
HUGE kudos to Kyle for this thread and picking this heat before the BOM forecasters did, here is an Adelaide story re Christmas day forecast, why they even bother is beyond me.


Adelaide weather forecast for Christmas Day 2016

Jade Gailberger
Environment Reporter, The Advertiser
December 1, 2016 11:17am

GET ready for a game of Christmas cricket, because the day is set to be dry and sunny, historic weather data suggests.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued an early forecast by combining historical records with climate outlook.

Climate liaison manager Peter Webb said although it wasn’t the actual forecast, the most likely weather conditions for Christmas Day were dry and sunny.

He said that despite a wet spring, a drier than average December was expected this year, and there was an 85 per cent chance Christmas Day would be dry.

“Historically, sunshine hours are 9.5 so when added to the low chance of rainfall it’s going to be dry and sunny,” Mr Webb said.

The Bureau says that although the temperature was difficult to predict at this stage, there was a high probability (75 per cent) that the temperature would be between 23C and 32C.

“The chance of it being really hot or really cool are remote,” Mr Webb said.

“There’s only a five per cent chance of it being above 35C degrees and a five per cent chance of it being below 21C.”
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1398082 - 21/12/2016 21:52 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1649
Loc: Uleybury
I'd say looking at the latest charts that Christmas Day would be around the 37-38 mark, Boxing Day 29-30

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#1398088 - 21/12/2016 22:25 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: Jet entrance]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2134
Loc: Clare, SA
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance

Climate liaison manager Peter Webb said although it wasn’t the actual forecast, the most likely weather conditions for Christmas Day were dry and sunny.

Historically, sunshine hours are 9.5 so when added to the low chance of rainfall it’s going to be dry and sunny,” Mr Webb said.

The Bureau says that although the temperature was difficult to predict at this stage, there was [b]a high probability (75 per cent) that the temperature would be between 23C and 32C.


This is nothing more than them detailing statistical averages for that time of year, technically absolutely nothing wrong with what they have said. It was written 21 days ago. They could have worded the end better but yeah.
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#1398206 - 22/12/2016 18:16 Re: SA - Potential Heat Spell Dec 23-25 2016 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: StormCapture
I'd say looking at the latest charts that Christmas Day would be around the 37-38 mark, Boxing Day 29-30


Nice work again mate, spot on.
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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