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#1397556 - 18/12/2016 13:54 VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016
logansi Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 842
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
First go at starting a non fire thread but here goes.

Christmas week for 2016 is increasingly looking like a hot one with temperatures increasing with each model run.

Mildura looking at potentially at least 4 days in the 40's - 24-27th

Melbourne may reach 30 on all days although sea breezes may effect some suburbs.

GFS looking at some storms on the 24th in central and eastern districts but falls don't look very high with little above 2mm (Hopefully not dry lightning - could be a big problem with the heat)

The end of the system is still being debated between the models and will depend on the track and development of a potential Tropical Storm/Cyclone in the countries NE, ACCESS has the change and rain moving in the Tuesday night at the moment but GFS has it slipping to our south and the heat continuing a few more days.

ACCESS G current run attached below

Merry Christmas Everyone!!



Edited by logansi (18/12/2016 13:55)
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#1397602 - 18/12/2016 18:17 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6511
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great effort Logansi - thanks! - I bet it was a typo re: cyclone NE (it will be NW). wink

Latest GFS suggests that our warm build up pre Christmas may end up being a humid NE'ly "change(??)" during Christmas Day??



Perhaps we will experience some humidity? - but as we all know, when a cyclone is thrown into the "future weather" mix, every next model run can be a lottery! smile smile



Edited by Petros (18/12/2016 18:25)

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#1397609 - 18/12/2016 18:51 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 842
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Surprised that's all I got wrong poke

Yeah models have been everywhere and will likely stay that way.

BOM saying 30 for Melbourne and 39 for Mildura

I wouldn't be surprised if Christmas day turns out hotter in the south than the models and forecasts are showing right now, they have a southerly/sea-breeze pushing a fair way inland ATM.
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#1397621 - 18/12/2016 20:26 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Interesting period heat wise that's for sure logansi!

Battle of the northerly flow v's the sea breeze 😃
I'm thinking anywhere a little in land away from the coast could have sustained heat 30 plus for a number of days in a row!!

Thing really on the turn here drying out wise now!😨

I reckon things will just about be cured up here (if we receive minimal rain) by Christmas or just after

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#1397626 - 18/12/2016 21:00 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 842
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
As I said about getting hotter with each run

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#1397630 - 18/12/2016 21:23 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2247
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very surprised got it wrong no rain from WA Cyclone slip away as the Heatwave is glued for SE Australia.





Edited by chasers addict (18/12/2016 21:25)

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#1397631 - 18/12/2016 21:32 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 842
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
we may still see big falls after the change, now likely on the 28th, however GFS currently has it mostly dieing out. Of course anything could happen between now and then, the TC might not even form.
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#1397646 - 18/12/2016 23:10 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Difficult period coming up, starting tomorrow. I've all but lost faith in the models because we've had countless let-downs on major rain and storm events this season. This one had BETTER be the big one that delivers to help us say goodbye to 2016! poke

But good to see the monsoon is now kicking into gear across Tropical Northern Australia, so hopefully the Storm Season is getting ready to swing into action for us down south. smile

Should see a cold front and a trough swing through Victoria late-tomorrow and early-Tuesday, preceded by a hot northerly airflow. Forecast tops of 30C for Melbourne and 34C for Mildura.

Cloud increasing with late showers and thunderstorms developing over the Western districts, then spreading eastwards across the State during the night and gradually clearing by Tuesday arvo. Not a lot of moisture at this stage, so can't say how much rain it'll deliver, maybe a few millimetres at best. BSCH doesn't have too much instability on this frontal system either, but hope we get something. smile

Then a rather extended dry spell in the lead-up to Christmas as a large high moves through behind the front, although onshore flow from Bass Strait should kick up a few light coastal showers up until about Thursday.

But I'd also be watching tomorrow's trough really closely! Latest synoptic prognosis has it retreating north by Wednesday, then returning southwards on Friday in time for Christmas. Ridging high pressure around the trough aides in the development of a low pressure cell, and pumps in plenty of South Pacific moisture. BSCH has a lot of instability in store at this stage during the Christmas weekend too, so could amount to an 'easterly/tropical' dip scenario with hopefully a good storm outbreak. smile

Unsure about rainfall totals with the 'easterly/tropical dip' (if it does happen), but hopefully enough to help us fight off bushfires. All the more because, as everyone's mentioned, a potentially dangerous heatwave seems to be about to unfold! frown

At this stage, ACCESS has the possible tropical low/tropical cyclone (if it DOES happen) making landfall over the WA Pilbara coastline on Christmas Eve, then ripping southeastwards across the Outback. The ridging high that sets up the possible 'easterly/tropical dip' over us retreats into the Tasman Sea, allowing the 'easterly/tropical dip' to begin interacting (hopefully) with the tropical low/cyclone's remnants, but also flooding Victoria with a dangerously hot northerly airflow. Forecast tops of 30C for Melbourne and 39C for Mildura on Christmas Day... but of course that's just the start of the heatwave! frown

If ACCESS is anything to go by, the remnants of the anticipated tropical low/cyclone (and the easterly dip) could all join forces with what could be the final potentially major winter storm from Antarctica for 2016. It has a deep low and intense cold front ripping across the Southern Ocean, then charging northbound towards Southern Australia by Christmas, and finally entering the Bight and linking up with the easterly dip and tropical low/cyclone remnants by Wednesday December 28th.

The 'hot line' overwhelms Victoria, and the northerly airflow strengthens as the barometric pressure plummets and the gradient tightens ahead of the impending developing storm system and cold blast. Could be an exceptionally dangerous high-risk (possibly catastrophic code red) bushfire day, with high-30s to mid-40s Statewide (wouldn't rule out Melbourne soaring to 40C+), likely damaging gale-force winds and possibly a colder squally southwest change by Thursday 29th at the earliest! Maybe even dry storms with lightning and little if any rainfall. frown

Hopefully a significant/major rainfall event DOES follow immediately afterwards... it's needed urgently.

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#1397650 - 19/12/2016 02:54 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 200
Loc: Renmark
Bring on the Christmas heat! I don't want to hear anything about horror cold southerly crap. You Melbournites have suffered enough with this ridiculous polar stormless excuse for a "spring" and "crummer". Just endless polar southerly cancer-fest the last several months. Worst Derpcember in modern history. Summer is finally beginning, I hope all forecast southerly crap for you guys is just a glitch. Winter has dragged on long enough. Time for summer. Hopefully the ugly ass change on the 29th is just a glitch and is replaced by the beautiful red line in the next few days.

Bring on the heat, bring on the lightning, bring on the humidity, bring on the fun, and NO more goddamn cancerous southerlies please.


Edited by Galaxyman (19/12/2016 03:04)

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#1397656 - 19/12/2016 07:26 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 6.6C, at the last check it was still a rather un-summerlike 8C. eek

Thankfully it's sunny, and a nice hot 30C coming up this arvo! Hope we get a storm tonight as well. smile

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#1397669 - 19/12/2016 09:51 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 842
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Looking for that Ex TC?

For those wanting to see how much models change, here is the same day I posted above on todays run smile

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#1397688 - 19/12/2016 12:31 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2247
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had enough overnight low 7.7c at 5am, now 26c at 12.30pm.

Thundery in SW and NW is on way, more likely isolated.

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#1397699 - 19/12/2016 14:44 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
It warmed up very quickly after my previous post, getting nice and hot now! And windy too. Currently around 31C. smile

Not relying too heavily on the models for tonight's frontal system, but hopefully some heavy rainfall and even a thunderstorm for Melbourne. Then hopefully some showers over the next couple of days as the high approaches. smile

The models and synoptic prognosis are now falling more-or-less in-line for the looming event, but still need to wait at least a few more runs to be certain. Seems to be a convergence of different weather systems, as well as a potential 'Battle of the Air Masses'.

The trough that's connected to the incoming cold front retreats north into NSW and Queensland over the next few days. Then it moves back southwards at first (hoping Victoria gets a brief 'easterly/tropical' dip just prior to Christmas), before veering northwest into the heart of the Outback and linking into the monsoon which is now firing across Tropical Northern Australia (including the Top End and Kimberley region).

Lots of lows drifting westwards along the monsoonal system, but still uncertainty as to whether the predicted tropical cyclone for the WA Pilbara will take shape, but plenty of hot water out over the Indian Ocean! Landfall (if it does eventuate) is likely around Christmas Eve, then the system moves southeast across the Outback.

Let's not forget that ACCESS still has a potentially major winter storm likely for us, with a ferocious cold front and enormous deepening low from Antarctica enter the Bight from the Southern Ocean just after Boxing Day. It then "swallows" the ex-tropical low/cyclone's remnants (plus the 'easterly/tropical dip' and of course the monsoon), and if ACCESS is anything to go by, it could erupt into a powerful, massive storm system by Tuesday December 27th!

Preceding high pressure retreats into the Tasman Sea and South Pacific Ocean, allowing winds to swing around into a hot northerly airflow across Eastern Australia during the weekend, which could strengthen to gale-force and send temperatures soaring to dangerously high levels across Victoria from Boxing Day onwards as the potential storm develops and bears down on us from the northwest, so I'd be on high-alert for both damaging winds and bushfires! Wouldn't rule out Melbourne hitting 40C next week on Boxing Day and/or Tuesday. frown

Likely to be a vigorous change or even a cold outbreak on Wednesday btw. I'm interested to see whether it'll have any adverse impact on this year's Sydney-Hobart Yacht Race.

Hoping we do get a MAJOR rainfall event next week, and hoping we get flooded with instability to sets off a long-overdue outbreak of severe thunderstorms too! smile

Hoping it comes off and gives us what so many Victorians, especially in bushfire-prone areas (and those of us like me who are storm fanatics) what we wanted plus more. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/12/2016 14:51)

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#1397701 - 19/12/2016 15:19 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2247
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks Aussiestormfreak as is worry for flooding as looks look like 30mm to 60mm rain like for next Tuesday 27th.

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#1397704 - 19/12/2016 15:32 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 842
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Don't count it in yet, models still very jumpy, it all depends on the timing of the ex-tropical low and the cold front, GFS has it mostly slipping across the southwest of the state at its last run.



Edited by logansi (19/12/2016 15:34)
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#1397732 - 19/12/2016 18:13 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6511
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After another cold morning (by typical December standards) it finally turned out to be a warm 30.9C here late arvo, helped by a moderate NW'ly (and more pertinently) no sea breeze.

Lets hope for a bit of lightning during the passage of tonight's weakening change??

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#1397733 - 19/12/2016 18:15 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2247
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I rather wait until Thursday for GFS update to be perfect.

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#1397738 - 19/12/2016 19:05 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a lovely hot, mostly sunny 31.6C here in Belgrave today, with a cooling northerly breeze! Got quite blustery at times, but the winds subsided by around 5pm. smile

Cloud increased from the west after 6pm, with the Sun vanishing through the thickening cloudcover around 6:30pm, and it's getting quite dark now. Still quite pleasant outside atm (currently around 27C), even though the change is now about 120km away over the Surf Coast to the southwest. Should hit Melbourne in approximately 1-2 hours. Hoping we get some nice overnight showers and even a thunderstorm tonight (sure looks unstable). Would be nice if we could collect around 5-10mm or more worth of rain! smile

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#1397755 - 19/12/2016 21:14 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
We saw 30c today and currently a balmy 23c.

Watching the radar hopeful of some half decent rain, but it all seems to be drying out and slipping away 😨

Really need to get 10mm or something half decent out of this change because looking at the charts they don't look good at all from Friday through following Wednesday!!😨

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#1397760 - 19/12/2016 21:54 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 842
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Few thunder claps around and some rain. Which I guess I could call a storm. Had around 2mm with the change.

Tonight's ACCESS run for 27th fairly similar to this mornings with high rainfalls still likely. GFS still dancing around with lots of changes with each 6 hourly run however widespread falls of 15mm with patch up to 25-30 still likely.


Edited by logansi (19/12/2016 21:55)
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