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#1397776 - 20/12/2016 06:32 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 249
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Recently I have moved up the road from Wyndham Vale to Tarneit, I'm yet to get my weather station back up... on another note

I've just witnessed the loudest couple of Thunder Claps In years passing over head, it was truly incredible to hear. A few flashes thrown in the mix and 1 minute or rain.
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Wunderground

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#1397780 - 20/12/2016 08:21 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
We had some wheelie bin thunder around 430 to 5am ish and around 6am a pretty decent storm to our immediate S and SW that was sparking alot for 10 minutes or so but then just washed out.

Does anyone know of any remaining free photo hosting sites?
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1397783 - 20/12/2016 09:08 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
^^ I use http://imgur.com/ and https://postimage.org/ for all my photos that i embed in here

ACCESS has changed again and now inline with GFS - thanks to the quicker development of the TC of WA (likely to be named today). Now the rain slips to the south missing all but my corner of VIC and a serious heat wave now runs for 7 days across all but the SW (thanks to the slipping Ex TC)

*right now who knows what will happen

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Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1397802 - 20/12/2016 11:05 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 13.1C, still barely around 13C atm! An overcast, damp, chilly start to the day. poke

Was quite a balmy, blustery night, peaking at 24.3C just before 1am. The front itself finally arrived at about 7am, bringing some heavy showers and maybe a thunderstorm, but I was sound asleep so I didn't hear any thunder or see any lightning. But it was nice to wake up to heavy rain, with 3.2mm in the 24 hours to 9am, and another 1.1mm afterwards. smile

The latest model runs are very discouraging! A dangerous heatwave is not what I wanted thank you! At this time of year we need good soaking heavy rainfall in our fight against bushfires. Hope the models start changing and lock us in for a major rain/storm event instead. frown

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#1397819 - 20/12/2016 13:47 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Oh heatwave is not very good for Northern Country going last 6 days a row.

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#1397854 - 20/12/2016 18:41 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After a warm 17.9C night, we got a weak storm pass late morning proving us a weak 1mm rain.

Amazing the "X" factor that a brewing cyclone can provide for model outputs - the variations over the past 3 days in the longer range models is huge - flip flopping every 12hours!


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#1397856 - 20/12/2016 18:50 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Even that GFS run still doesn't give us much rain (on the 10 day run) it slips to our south
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Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1397857 - 20/12/2016 18:57 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...I tried to edit an image post above - God knows how it morphed into the video image it currently shows! - I was going to say, shame (at this stage) that all that cyclone exhaust is currently progged to travel SE to miss Vic to the W of Tassie frown

Hope for another model flip back in our favour tomoz??

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#1397863 - 20/12/2016 19:20 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yeah who knows what will happen however I the current scenario is the only one which has been mostly agreed to by all the models (ACCESS,GFS & EC)

BOM has issued a severe heat wave warning starting 23/12

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Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1397868 - 20/12/2016 19:47 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Those above charts not looking good at all!! Anywhere that's not already cured will almost definitely be if the above charts are anything to go by!!

I'm thinking we could possibly go past 40c both Tuesday and Wednesday if the stars align 😨😨
Think that heatwave prediction chart will prob increase to extreme possibly for the Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday period ??

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#1397869 - 20/12/2016 19:51 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
We received a disappointing 2.5mm out of the change this morning!!

Got all excited when my wife text me and said there were thunder and lighting passing overhead this morning, also added it was raining quiet heavy.
Thought I might come hone to find 10mm or so in the gauge!! (She forgot to tell me it only lasted 5min lol) 😨😨

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#1397870 - 20/12/2016 19:55 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Not sure on wind strengths that will accompany the heat that's coming but fair to say Monday/Tuesday Wednesday period could be our first real nasty little fire days for pretty much all of Vic😨😨

this tropical cyclone remanance will really need to deliver something good mid next week

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#1397875 - 20/12/2016 20:10 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Wind doesn't look to bad until Monday, - Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday on the latest run of GFS would be shockers, Thursday the worst with temps in the north in the low 40s, winds around 40 and humidity around 10-15%
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Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1397883 - 20/12/2016 20:54 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
We received a disappointing 2.5mm out of the change this morning!!

Got all excited when my wife text me and said there were thunder and lighting passing overhead this morning, also added it was raining quiet heavy.
Thought I might come hone to find 10mm or so in the gauge!! (She forgot to tell me it only lasted 5min lol)


You did well dooga' we had barely 0.5mm with some close thunder and CG, couple of fires but nothing to bad. DWELP will be flat out on them to beat the modelled heat on the near horizon.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1397885 - 20/12/2016 21:06 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Thanks for the photo hosting tips Logansi

Snaps of the storm to our SW then S this morning around 6am, was pretty good storm for 15 minutes or so, we were on the north side so photogenic and some nice lightning - only 0.8mm though and some of that was from storm around 5am. Excuse low light and taken through a window. Nice updraft features.



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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1397915 - 21/12/2016 08:18 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Like the pics Ruckle, thanks grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1397938 - 21/12/2016 10:46 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 26.4C here in Belgrave yesterday. Warm and mostly sunny, with the sun beaming through the clouds at about 11:30am! smile

As for today...

Overnight low of 11.4C, currently around 18C and partly cloudy.

Turns out I collected an additional 1mm of rain since my last post yesterday. So 2.1mm in the 24 hours to 9am today. smile

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#1398025 - 21/12/2016 18:51 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Made 22C here after a blustery westerly "breakfast change" in these part. Its still blustery out there now, so things are drying out bigtime frown

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#1398072 - 21/12/2016 21:20 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Models starting to catch on to what blind freddy could see -namely two tropical systems , long northerly fetch and moisture already in place in interior (north) = damp air and with a strong enough change to act as a trigger Monday there could be some weather then before tropical systems possibly do their thing after that. Anyway interesting to see what unfolds in next week as with tropics involved all sorts of curveballs could occur
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1398075 - 21/12/2016 21:28 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yeah, models starting to go back to wet side, the latest GFS run has us in the 75mm range, that would make our wettest single day EVER, our wettest December EVER and give us our wettest year EVER!


Edited by logansi (21/12/2016 21:28)
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Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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