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#1398078 - 21/12/2016 21:43 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1029
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Interesting battle between the models

As u mention logansi, gfs slightly heading back to a little wetter period than yesterday run, BUT access g on this Mornings run is rediculous heat wise!!
Potential 40c days in a row!!

Still waiting on this evenings updates

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#1398080 - 21/12/2016 21:49 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a warm, increasingly sunny 25.0C here in Belgrave today. The morning cloudcover gradually gave way to much clearer skies during the afternoon, with a nice cooling breeze. smile

At the last check it was around 13C.

Unsure what to make of the models now. But I am getting anxious. Dreading the coming heatwave, and praying hard for heavy rainfall! frown

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#1398083 - 21/12/2016 21:52 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The thing with the rain is I feel that if we get some (other than a few showers) it will be a lot, and likely that case across the state. Either 1-5mm or 25-75mm+
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1398086 - 21/12/2016 22:23 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Tonight's ACCESS may be one of the wettest model run I have ever seen for Victoria

100mm+ in patches 60-80mm across large areas.



Oh and the heatwave is shrinking too



Edited by logansi (21/12/2016 22:24)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1398089 - 21/12/2016 22:34 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2322
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Interesting to see mix of dry,heat,humid isolated Thunderstorms and wind change all way through by next Thursday bring heavy rain leftovers from Ex cyclone.

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#1398101 - 21/12/2016 23:44 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Now those charts look more exciting! smile

ACCESS's latest run now wants to unleash what could be a potentially MAJOR storm event across Victoria, the result of the final major winter storm for 2016 from Antarctica joining forces with the monsoon from Tropical Northern Australia and the Outback, as well as ex-Tropical Cyclone Yvette!

Just look at the synoptic chart for next Wednesday!! One INSANE low bombing over the Bight as the different weather systems collide and the 'Battle of the Air Masses' unfolds!! shocked

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#1398113 - 22/12/2016 07:28 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1853
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
More optimistic for E.Vic this morning, huge amounts forecast for
areas to our N.W. from here to N/W W.A.

WATL even talking it up a little as we get closer to it happening and GFS on board, now if that all goes right in the Bight asf it could be very interesting.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-87mm-0900 8th

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#1398130 - 22/12/2016 09:30 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6178
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC up to nearly 50mm for my place mid week and a few light bits prior. Also less hot with change and moisture.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1398134 - 22/12/2016 09:58 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 11.6C, currently around 17C and sunny. smile

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#1398135 - 22/12/2016 10:10 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Models still showing massive amount of uncertainty in rainfall amounts. The 18z GFS run (Just out) (which doesn't upload to weatherzone) has backed off again



Edited by logansi (22/12/2016 10:11)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1398190 - 22/12/2016 17:06 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 638
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Well, I'm completely comfabulated (whatever that might mean) about the coming week's weather. Seems to me, though, that the meteorologists are are bit comfabulated themselves.

Having real difficulty aligning official BoM forecasts with what the models, including WATL, say (and the models seem a bit comfabulated themselves).


Edited by ThunderBob (22/12/2016 17:07)

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#1398196 - 22/12/2016 17:42 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 911
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
No one knows - or should I say nothing knows as neither do the models - latest GFS run (just 6 hours later) is you guested it - wet again. To put into perspective how confused the models are, in that time the forecast for just north of me has gone from less than 5mm to 75mm.
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1398200 - 22/12/2016 18:00 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6660
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Welcome back ThunderBob! smile - hope alls been well.

Going by the latest GFS run (below) I'm surprised that the present Pilbara Low (mooted by GFS to be SSW of Cyclone Yvette by Saturday) could be expected to retain its own identity into next week - and not be absorbed into Yvette.

.....Anyhow, this is GFS's latest guess as to how things will evolve into next week - thinks Vic will miss out on "cyclone remnant rain" with the remnants flowing southward to the W of Tassie frown



....and as all have said - models will chop and change big time over coming days as the actual outcome of Yvette becomes more determinate.

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#1398202 - 22/12/2016 18:07 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 638
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Well.Logansi, guess we'll just keep scanning the models, do a bit of guessin' and see what happens. Not having extreme fire conditions btw Xmas and New Year's (as seemed on the cards only a couple of days ago)would be a good thing.

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#1398204 - 22/12/2016 18:11 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 638
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
G'day Petros. Yes, things have been fine ... just preoccupied ... though I have often "dropped in" to see what you boys and girls are saying.

Re your progging of the remnant rain missing Vic ... it does, on that GFS run, look "interesting" for Adelaide area!

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#1398229 - 22/12/2016 20:36 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2322
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I agree with everyone above is wait until Cyclone weaken then pin where it want throw rain into South Ocean or SE Australia.


Edited by chasers addict (22/12/2016 20:37)

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#1398231 - 22/12/2016 21:08 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6178
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Well the only model with any sort of consistency is longer form of ACCESS which is unusual. Really hope its right atm. EC has gone from 50mm to 13mm for me and started moving the timing which is a bit of a worry. Monday change/boundary still looks interesting on most models.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1398246 - 22/12/2016 23:36 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a warm, mostly sunny 26.7C here in Belgrave today, with a nice cooling breeze. Currently around 13C. smile

The heat starts to kick-in tomorrow... poke

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#1398257 - 23/12/2016 08:59 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5865
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 10.0C, currently around 18C and sunny. smile

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#1398275 - 23/12/2016 11:23 Re: VIC- Potential Christmas Heat Wave - Christmas Eve Storms? 21-30 December 2016 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6178
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Models showing the Monday change holding up the first really big chunk of moisture. Lucky there still seems to be two!
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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