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#1397042 - 13/12/2016 09:50 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Prob see a few isolated showers and storms in the north and east this arvo.

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#1397051 - 13/12/2016 11:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Chris #3]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1884
Loc: Semaphore SA
Originally Posted By: Chris #3
My cat brought in this little guy last night -



Have found him in the house three times since then. I think he's trying to make his way back to his birthplace (a pond down the road)
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GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1397062 - 13/12/2016 12:21 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Ok the EC model has been pretty keen on keeping the ridge out compared to other models and so giving SA a fair bit of rainfall this week.
As we are only about 24 hours out now I'd tend to favour this scenario more than the others. Might not be quite this much rain but I'd be preparing now if I was a farmer on EP, Mid North, Barossa, Riverland, and Mallee.
It could be quite humid as well so I'd dare say the potential exists for downy mildew in grape growing areas.
The map below shows accumulated rainfall in mm's for this week. As you can see the city misses out pretty much but elsewhere its quite wet!

Windyty wind map forecast by Tim Eckert, on Flickr

GFS has now brought it a bit further south as well...

BSCH Raincast GFS Forecast for Adelaide by Tim Eckert, on Flickr


Edited by teckert (13/12/2016 12:36)

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#1397111 - 13/12/2016 18:32 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Just keep an eye on later tonight for a slight chance of Nocturnal storms, anytime after 10:30pm ish till sunrise. Mainly to our NE but a chance of something closer to the city...


Edited by Jet entrance (13/12/2016 18:35)
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#1397112 - 13/12/2016 18:33 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Nice pick up Tim, you should be a duty forecaster at the BOM
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over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

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#1397126 - 13/12/2016 21:47 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6842
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Bureau saying a max of 19 deg C tomorrow for the hills after an overnight low of 12...wow!
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#1397140 - 13/12/2016 23:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Nice pick up Tim, you should be a duty forecaster at the BOM

WOuldnt want to, the way these models are bouncing around the shop...
So yer looks like the ridge might yet win out and force the rain further north. Still looks like a fair drink for Upper Mid North and Nth EP though...
Mind you, the way its been going this will change by morning!!

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#1397146 - 13/12/2016 23:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 500
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Odd flight path in from Perth:
http://i.imgur.com/n1IEx0z.png


Edited by teckert (13/12/2016 23:57)
Edit Reason: image too large

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#1397181 - 14/12/2016 09:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology South Australia

INITIAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FLINDERS AND NORTH EAST PASTORAL DISTRICTS

Issued at 9:16 am CDT on Wednesday 14 December 2016
By the Bureau of Meteorology, South Australia.

A low pressure system and an associated upper level trough are expected to develop over the north of the State during Wednesday, reaching peak intensity over the Flinders and southern parts of the North East Pastoral districts during the period from Wednesday evening through to Thursday morning. The system is then expected to move east over New South Wales by Thursday evening.

Localised flooding and road closures are possible during Wednesday evening through to Thursday across the Flood Watch area.

Weather Forecast:
Rainfall is expected to increase during Wednesday afternoon with the development of thunderstorms and a band of rain over the Flinders and southern parts of the North East Pastoral. Rainfall amounts over the 24 hour period from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon are expected to be 50-100mm, particularly with thunderstorms and about the eastern slopes of the Flinders Ranges.

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#1397197 - 14/12/2016 12:19 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1540
Loc: Bridgewater
50-100mm of rain...
i doubt it

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#1397199 - 14/12/2016 12:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2057
Loc: Clare, SA
6mm here last 24 hours, a nice drink for everything.

I can imagine this would be incredibly annoying for the farmers still left to harvest their crops, still a fair bit around.

Interesting this rain to come, looks like it will probs go north of here, but only around 35mm off the wettest year in over fifty years for here so hoping we can pull off something nice!
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#1397227 - 14/12/2016 15:58 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Eevo]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: Eevo
50-100mm of rain...
i doubt it


over 50mm is def on the cards. At least 2 models are progging those type of falls in the FLinders area...
TBH I wouldnt be surprised to see it even slightly further south into the Spencer Triangle & Upper Mid North.

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#1397228 - 14/12/2016 16:15 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1540
Loc: Bridgewater
where abouts in the flinders are you looking? i used hawker and came up with 40mm max over a few days

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#1397230 - 14/12/2016 16:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Check the following on WZ.... TWC WRF model, EC-E 15 model
and EC rain accum on https://www.windytv.com
Even GFS this morning's run had 75mm in parts... downgraded again now but its been up and down like a yoyo.

All will come down to exact location where the upper low heads.... some parts will see a lot of rain thats for sure, other areas zippo...

The main issue with verifying totals will be the lack of AWS's in the area where majority of the rainfall is going to fall.... Hawker looks to be too far west, and Arkaroola/Leigh Creek right on the edge. Yunta and Broken Hill will prob give us a guide as to what actually fell over the eastern Flinders.


Edited by teckert (14/12/2016 16:33)

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#1397288 - 15/12/2016 09:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 192
Loc: Renmark
What a disgusting, feral, overcast subantarctic morning. This ridiculous southerly rot has no place in summer. Been a very disappointing Derpcember (and spring), feels like I'm in Melbourne. When is the cold front factory finally going to go out of business already mad

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#1397600 - 18/12/2016 17:58 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
looks not bad for some storms EP/YP late tomorrow. Instability tends to cark it later as it moves east so not convinced city will see much at this stage. If we do looks like around 10pm-2am best times...

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#1397633 - 18/12/2016 21:39 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
I also mentioned in the heat thread of the potential of some rains just before New Year. Maybe around 28th-30th.
I think this is increasingly becoming likely - its just to what extent it will be and where....

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#1397638 - 18/12/2016 21:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 500
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: teckert
looks not bad for some storms EP/YP late tomorrow. Instability tends to cark it later as it moves east so not convinced city will see much at this stage. If we do looks like around 10pm-2am best times...


WeatherZone has "chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening," here in Adelaide - fingers crossed.

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#1397693 - 19/12/2016 14:01 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Aviation forecast:
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW OF Port Augusta/Kingscote/Portland BY 02Z.
EXTENDING TO SW OF Peterborough/Lameroo BY 08Z.
THUNDERSTORMS TENDING FREQUENT WITHIN 100NM OF TROUGH IN S OF AREA

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#1397737 - 19/12/2016 18:50 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 500
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Hmm, has that "it's gonna rain here" feeling outside ...

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