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#1397793 - 20/12/2016 10:16 Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4034
Loc: El Arish
A little something Santa has tucked away.




Dvorak initial classification of 1.5 at 181800 UTC. Recent IR images show
banding starting to form to the south of the system. Dvorak analyses yields a DT
of 2.5 from curved band and a MET/PAT of 2.5 based on development over the past
24 hours.

ASCAT at 0120 UTC showed 35 knot winds in the southeast quadrant. ASCAT at 1352
UTC showed 35 knot winds in the southwest quadrant.

Intensity set to 35 knots due to gales in the southern quadrants. But, due to
not wrapping more than half way round and Dvorak analyses, system is still
classified as a tropical low.

CIMSS at 1800 UTC showed the system in a shear ridge with shear estimated
between 10 and 20 knots.There is good upper divergence over the system with
outflow indicated in at least the southern qudrants. SSTs in the area are
between 29 and 30C. Conditions are favourable for development and it is likely
the low will develop into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday.

07U has developed from a surge in the monsoon NW flow. The system is expected to
be slow moving for the next 2 to 3 days. There is considerable model divergence
on the movement and intensity of the system, particularly in the longer term.
The development of another tropical low north of the Kimberley and subsequent
movement to the southwest is a definite influence on this system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:06 am WST on Tuesday 20 December 2016
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A tropical low was located at 2:00 am AWST near 16.3S 114.2E, that is 570 km
north northwest of Karratha and 640 km northwest of Port Hedland and moving
west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday but is not
expected to affect the WA mainland in the next 48 hours.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am AWST.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24000.txt


Edited by Mick10 (22/12/2016 14:36)
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#1397827 - 20/12/2016 14:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4034
Loc: El Arish
Latest.

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Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

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#1397851 - 20/12/2016 18:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 3964
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
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MTD: 93.3mm
YTD: 1542.7mm

April- 272.8mm

2014 Totals- 2352.6mm
2015 Totals- 2635.1mm
2016 Totals- 1495.7mm

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#1397944 - 21/12/2016 12:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Latest track map has it swinging much more in a southerly direction. Hedland to Karratha may be a chance. The dozens of media outlets that have had Broome getting hit by 2 cyclones had better quickly edit there garbage stories. They must have been following social media rather than BOM. Haha. Maybe we need to bring in the fake news laws of Germany to social media to make them a little more accountable for their posts of continual speculation.
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#1397946 - 21/12/2016 12:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 253
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Watching this one closely, as I have a work crew heading up to Onslow in the days after Christmas.

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#1397947 - 21/12/2016 12:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
As for my speculation on here that is completely fine hahaha
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#1397993 - 21/12/2016 17:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Yayo Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/01/2012
Posts: 11
Loc: Karratha
At least you call it for what it is Popeye. The track map that was shown on the news last night had the northern most topical low placed in the Gulf of Carpentaria and the second low was about 300kms directly north of Broome. Was a shocker. I think you will be proven right tho, K-town/Headland with 300-400mm, should just about settle the bloody dust.

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#1398009 - 21/12/2016 18:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: Yayo]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 845
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
She's been named😊

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#1398013 - 21/12/2016 18:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Yayo Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/01/2012
Posts: 11
Loc: Karratha
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Yvette has developed well north of the Pilbara and approaches the coast over the Christmas period.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: None.
Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Yvette at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.5 degrees South, 114.0 degrees East , 760 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 810 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland .
Movement: slow moving .
Tropical Cyclone Yvette is not expected to affect the Western Australia mainland in the next 48 hours.

The system will be slow moving before tracking southeastwards towards the Pilbara/west Kimberley coast during Friday and is expected to approach the coast over the Christmas weekend.

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#1398103 - 21/12/2016 23:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
zobubble Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2013
Posts: 61
Loc: Broome, WA
Hmm we're all a bit quiet on this one. Anyone got any idea what this she might be doing?

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#1398106 - 22/12/2016 00:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 194
Loc: Port Hedland
We had a kick ass dust storm try to drop rain on us around 4:40pm. Was spectacular. I have no clue but for the rain I selfishly hooe she passes just west of us....i really want rain.

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#1398115 - 22/12/2016 07:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
If the go to EC model was an indicator of what to expect it's nothing but a fizzer crossing the coast. Such a waste of a good set up. Hopefully some good rains to kick the season off for everyone. NEXT....
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#1398116 - 22/12/2016 07:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
BUT... If you were to base everything on what models said you no doubt have a high chance of getting it wrong these days so it could still cross as a CAT 5 lol.
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#1398117 - 22/12/2016 07:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 322
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah could be another Stan.... weak cat 1 crossing at Pardoo ... again by the looks of it. Good rain though....

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#1398121 - 22/12/2016 07:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah Sepo it's frustrating watching from afar. Maybe the reason I'm hoping it fizzles. Hate to miss the action. Jtwc at least gets it up to 65knts before crossing so it might do something.
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#1398138 - 22/12/2016 10:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: Ningergirl]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3155
Loc: Gordonvale
Originally Posted By: Ningergirl
We had a kick ass dust storm try to drop rain on us around 4:40pm. Was spectacular. I have no clue but for the rain I selfishly hooe she passes just west of us....i really want rain.


Couple of nice pics of that storm getting around.

Some good rain in parts already from the other low, Derby 147mm.


Edited by Ronfishes (22/12/2016 10:19)
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MTD: 41.2mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1242.4mm

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#1398141 - 22/12/2016 10:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
zobubble Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2013
Posts: 61
Loc: Broome, WA
Definately enjoying this wet weather. Waiting patiently for this system to move. Currently almost stationery. Can we at least update the name of this thread to make it 'feel' closer?

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#1398194 - 22/12/2016 17:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1539
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Looks to be a slow mover ,so might be plenty of rain .
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#1398242 - 22/12/2016 23:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 40
Loc: Port Hedland
Looks like a slow small mover

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#1398253 - 23/12/2016 07:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Yvette (91S Indian Ocean) December 2016 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17197
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Latest track has her not making Cat 2.
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