A little something Santa has tucked away.
Dvorak initial classification of 1.5 at 181800 UTC. Recent IR images show
banding starting to form to the south of the system. Dvorak analyses yields a DT
of 2.5 from curved band and a MET/PAT of 2.5 based on development over the past
ASCAT at 0120 UTC showed 35 knot winds in the southeast quadrant. ASCAT at 1352
UTC showed 35 knot winds in the southwest quadrant.
Intensity set to 35 knots due to gales in the southern quadrants. But, due to
not wrapping more than half way round and Dvorak analyses, system is still
classified as a tropical low.
CIMSS at 1800 UTC showed the system in a shear ridge with shear estimated
between 10 and 20 knots.There is good upper divergence over the system with
outflow indicated in at least the southern qudrants. SSTs in the area are
between 29 and 30C. Conditions are favourable for development and it is likely
the low will develop into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday.
07U has developed from a surge in the monsoon NW flow. The system is expected to
be slow moving for the next 2 to 3 days. There is considerable model divergence
on the movement and intensity of the system, particularly in the longer term.
The development of another tropical low north of the Kimberley and subsequent
movement to the southwest is a definite influence on this system.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:06 am WST on Tuesday 20 December 2016
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A tropical low was located at 2:00 am AWST near 16.3S 114.2E, that is 570 km
north northwest of Karratha and 640 km northwest of Port Hedland and moving
west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.
The tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday but is not
expected to affect the WA mainland in the next 48 hours.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am AWST.http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24000.txt