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#1397115 - 13/12/2016 19:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 469
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
As can see from today's AAO forecast. It's all over the place.

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#1397165 - 14/12/2016 08:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4265
Loc: Wynnum
Article in this mornings local Brisbane newspaper regarding the sea temps off Gold and Sunshine Coasts being way below normal for this time of year, up to 4deg below, according to the article.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33)YTD 702.0(841.0)

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#1397169 - 14/12/2016 08:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 469
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Lol. Lowest I can find is -1.0.

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#1397193 - 14/12/2016 11:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4265
Loc: Wynnum
Quote from the paper "...the waters off the Gold Coast and Moreton Bay islands have been positively frigid and up to 4deg colder than average. The temperature recorded at a buoy off the Gold Seaway last week measured just 19.85C a figure more common in June than December...."
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33)YTD 702.0(841.0)

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#1397206 - 14/12/2016 13:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2613
Loc: Buderim
Maybe the bouy picked up a very local spot of cooler water welling up from below. Or is malfunctioning.

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#1397213 - 14/12/2016 14:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
I found this article from the Courier Mail; I'm not sure if it's the one you were referring to:

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queen...73f4dfa744d9b37

This article is OK, putting it down to localised Ekman upwelling, noting that SSTs on the Sunshine Coast are normal in the mid-20s.

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#1397248 - 14/12/2016 18:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6462
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I've been watching http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/forecasts/idyoc13.shtml?region=13&forecast=1 for quite a while and I did notice there was a very cold but thin strip of water south of Fraser Island to the border, it was much colder (into the blues) a week or two ago than what it is now as well, but I'm not sure about being as low as 20C.

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#1397295 - 15/12/2016 10:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
Is it possible because we're still feeling the lingering effects of the 2015/2016 El Nino that the breakdown hasn't really happened properly yet? The wet winter was primarily caused by the strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole rather than the El Nino breakdown.

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#1397305 - 15/12/2016 11:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4297
Loc: Brisbane
Should be an interesting week ahead for the SOI. With GFS showing a low developing around the top end NT but lower pressures in Tahiti in about a week's time.

I suspect if the forecasts pan out the daily SOI figures will be quite volatile for the coming week.

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#1397313 - 15/12/2016 15:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 17
Loc: lennox head
thats it Mega, thin strip of cool(cold) water upwelled by Ekman transport by an extended northerly wind episode......normally a feature of a developing El Nino and a big part of the "dry" feedback loop signal.

That cold water carries less moisture , increases the differential temp between land and sea which increases the strength of the northerly seabreeze which leads to increased Ekman transport and cold upwelling and so on.

In a bad Nino summer we barely break out of it. It has a big effect on local weather.


Edited by mammatus meestrus (15/12/2016 15:05)

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#1397379 - 16/12/2016 11:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2613
Loc: Buderim
Current predictions for next year from what I consider the top 4 models:

EC: warm neutral or el nino, weak to moderate.
CFS: neutral, pretty close to 50/50 on cool or warm side
NASA: el nino, moderate to strong
JMA: Cool neutral, maybe borderline La Nina.

JMA forecast includes cooling to a nino of under -1 in January, which seems unlikely given current conditions.

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#1397386 - 16/12/2016 12:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4297
Loc: Brisbane
Pretty big spread in model guidance. Clearly there is still much to be learn't in this area.

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#1397804 - 20/12/2016 11:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
All that warm water next to PNG must be having an impact.

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#1397808 - 20/12/2016 12:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4297
Loc: Brisbane
We might see big daily SOI numbers for the next couple of days with tropical lows active over the top end. Darwin MSLP measurement for today and tomorrow will sit around 1001-2mb.

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#1397838 - 20/12/2016 17:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7038
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
My impression is the unmentionable topic is not a polarised ideological quagmire of belief it was/is made out to be. By not acknowledging this, this places severe limitations on discussion to only a few ideas which do not give any where near as accurate a picture of what is going on as is thought. It's misleading at best.

No response required, but you're welcome to smile . I'm over the whole issue.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (20/12/2016 17:16)

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#1397846 - 20/12/2016 18:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 282
Loc: Karratha, WA
Well put Cosmic. I tend to agree. For risk of being banned that is all I'll say on the matter.

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#1397850 - 20/12/2016 18:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6462
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I'm confused...what are people arguing over again?

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#1397853 - 20/12/2016 18:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Mega]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7038
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Mega
I'm confused...what are we arguing over again?

We're not smile .

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#1397882 - 20/12/2016 20:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1782
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
I'm confused...what are people arguing over again?


He was saying that climate change may be an important factor in the current climate dynamic and therefore worthy of discussion. I also agree with this, but I can also remember the ridiculous dramas it caused that ironically detracted from the climate discussions the forums are meant for. No desire to return back to that again.

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#1397892 - 20/12/2016 21:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2016 (Enso, IOD, PDO etc) [Re: Nature's Fury]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7038
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
It seems the SAM and possibly an MJO phenomenon may contribute to a change in regional weather patterns across the continent in the next 1-2 weeks. Might still change yet, but dewpoints in the west look to be on the rise.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (20/12/2016 21:38)

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