Page 1 of 20 1 2 3 ... 19 20 >
Topic Options
#1397906 - 21/12/2016 00:04 SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Well really, when you look at the year, how fitting is it to finish it off with one of our biggest December rain events in history?
That's what we are looking at now, with amazing levels of tropical moisture heading down into SA after Christmas.
Will all come down to the movements of the tropical lows up in the NW of the country, but all models at this point are now forecasting substantial falls across most of SA.
For Adelaide, we should see at least an inch, but the potential is there for even triple that.

For the agricultural areas this isn't great. Many are still trying to finish harvesting, and these sort of falls wont be that good for grape growers.

ACCESS


EC rainfall (YR site)


CMC model


GFS model

Top
#1397909 - 21/12/2016 04:07 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
howdy tek, your up late.......git to bed. poke
yer i just picked up on this and printed it out to show the
guys at work, that's as full on as i've ever seem it but it's
still a week out and things can still change significantly.
an earlier run had EP getting the main smashing and us as
bugger all.(comparatively speaking)
i cant repeat on here what i said when i saw it but it sure
makes john codogan look tame.
regardles of how much rain we get it's pretty much foregone
that we're in for some nice juicy marrow boiling heat
followed by a serious, full on, hardcore, heavy duty
tropical onslaught with dp's pushing 20-22 south of adelaide
and 22-24 north. jeeze i'm foaming at the mouth just thinking
about it.
good ól TS'll think he's back in darwin.
just need to get a couple of more days closer for the gfs
high res to kick in properly, the best part is i finish work
at 12:30 today for 3½ weeks so this is all perfect timing
for me.
with pwat's of 60mm+ this is certainly going to be a rain
event and if the models hold up it will be one to go down
in the record books.
thunderstom paramaters either side of the main moisture
plume are looking like crap atm but it's still early days
on that. i think the best chance will be on the backside
when there will be gobs of low level residual moisture
ahead of the clearing cool change. more on that later.
whatever happens bring it on, at least it's not boring
mundane 25-30 fine and mild BS.
40 for sunday is awesome, looks like no webbers for most
people though, pork crackle will have to come out of the
oven. i think webbers are overrated anyway, i tried to cook
a webber once but it didn't turn out too good, the wheels
were ok the the rest was a bit chewy.


TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

Top
#1397920 - 21/12/2016 08:55 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1573
Loc: Uleybury
This would be rather good to have after a few days of very hot weather, be certainly a good way to top of the amazing year of weather in 2016.

Top
#1397934 - 21/12/2016 10:23 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1510
Loc: Bridgewater
any storm activity or just rain?

Top
#1397937 - 21/12/2016 10:32 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
basically what thunda hunta said.

Top
#1397939 - 21/12/2016 10:47 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
although should add that it actually gets fairly humid through Dec 24-26th before the lows get here, so chance arvo storm about different areas prior to the main rain event.

Top
#1397958 - 21/12/2016 14:48 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
yer your right there tek, i was thinking either side of the
rainband but i think there will be too much slab and warm
uppers prior like what killed my last thread.
the current 12z runs on access and gfs has backed off to
pretty much similar as the previous 12z run. be interesting
to see if it see-saws or swings on the next 00z.
i prefer the see-saw to the swing as the 00z is more on the
money then the 12z.
whats going on tek, you in chase mode or r u working?

ok, after writing the above i've just come back from the bsch
gfs medium res. site and it does not look good for storms prior
to the main moisture plume. those middle and upper level temps
are not just warm they're totally freakin cooked. any warmer
and we'll be having raindrops with steam coming off them.
still gunna have to wait a day or two to get some idea of what
might happen on the backside.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

Top
#1397978 - 21/12/2016 17:05 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
xmas family stuff on 25th and 26th (although at kapunda on 26th so could possibly be free locally), working on 27th, free on 28th atm but its just gonna rain all day lol...

Top
#1397979 - 21/12/2016 17:06 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
That information isn't accurate anyway, this far out even more so. But I know you are only posting what you see smile
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1397981 - 21/12/2016 17:07 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2047
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
In the words of D-Generation X... Are You Ready ?? I said Are You Readddy??

Going by the latest forecast on Weatherzone plus app and charts most if not all the state of SA is going to get a right royal spanking by the incoming rain event along with a good old fashioned pre marrow boiling from the 4 days of mid to high 30's and low 40's

The marrow boiling temps followed by a deluge of rain reminds me of when i was in Darwin a couple years ago and the wet season was late but ended up coming one morning with a big bang of thunder

Top
#1397986 - 21/12/2016 17:37 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
That information isn't accurate anyway, this far out even more so. But I know you are only posting what you see smile


Which info are you meaning?

It's a guide - don't read anything into actual totals yet. If you have been following this system for the last week you would know its going to happen. It just comes down to now where the rain falls and how much. Could get 20mm, could get 70mm.

Top
#1398001 - 21/12/2016 18:12 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: teckert
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
That information isn't accurate anyway, this far out even more so. But I know you are only posting what you see smile


Which info are you meaning?

It's a guide - don't read anything into actual totals yet. If you have been following this system for the last week you would know its going to happen. It just comes down to now where the rain falls and how much. Could get 20mm, could get 70mm.


Settle down coco... lol

I was refering to thundunta's post re warm uppers on med res via BSCH
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1398003 - 21/12/2016 18:14 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Long long way out, long long way to go.

If you read my post from yesterday Tim you would have had no need to attack what I wrote today, fair dinkum lol
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1398006 - 21/12/2016 18:16 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Here you go sport, from yesty!

Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Absolutely drooling at GFS, EC, and ACCESS for the 27-28th'ish

If it comes off, my goodness, BCF will sell out of inflatable boats!
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1398019 - 21/12/2016 18:36 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Sorry though I should have been clearer, my bad
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1398033 - 21/12/2016 19:29 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
umm attacking? okay whatever you feel like....

I just asked you what you meant lol...

anyways here's latest CMC...



Don't think CMC will come off - well we HOPE NOT!
BUT I think 50-100mm is a dead cert now. All models now showing the system for several days, and the pattern cant change apart from shifting slightly east.

Top
#1398038 - 21/12/2016 19:46 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6735
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Not good for farmers still in harvesting/bailing process frown ... good for run-off though smile , assuming it doesn't cause erosion and falling trees.

The pattern (event) probably has to negotiate an extensive thickness gradient to move further east (i.e. further than say Renmark), but who knows...maybe the thickness gradient will reinforce the event rather than subdue it. That is a bloody huge, concentrated plume of moisture BTW shocked !


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (21/12/2016 19:51)
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildren’s resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

Top
#1398041 - 21/12/2016 19:55 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1510
Loc: Bridgewater
bring it on!

Top
#1398042 - 21/12/2016 20:06 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
good on yer RS, glad to see yer still kickin'
......................................

That information isn't accurate anyway,.............

JE....with the above sweeping statement like that you are
obviously privy to far more accurate scientific information
that gives you the insight to know the observations i
(and Tek) have made based on current forecast models for
next week are "innaccurate" ie. wrong.
there is almost an inference that Tek and i are newbies
and lack the experience to make and post calls and
observations based on current forecast models.
i'm sure everyone would like to know, if what i (and seeing
as we are in somewhat agreeance, Tek) have been saying
according to those forecast models is innaccurate, what it
is that you consider to be more accurate that causes you to
make that call.

.......this far out even more so........

woah, what the hell is this, that seems to infer that our
observations and the models we use even closer in than
this far out are inaccurate and that what we have talked
about today is even more inaccurate than the blanket
inaccurate you have used for models even closer to to the
event. ooh, we're almost getting into double negative
territory. i reckon another twitch should get me there.

......But I know you are only posting what you see ....

.....right,
is this your little placating statement, the little
condescending pat on the head after you've finished
rattling your knuckles up and down our ribcage.
other than stating the radiantly obvious, is there an
alternative we should post about other than gut feelings
plucked out of our butts? (which i have done on rare
occasions). maybe it's the alternative that you have
privy to that caused the first part of your post.

model accuracy varies, not just the obvious between
models but within the models themselves both with
time of year, region and the type of event that's
forecast, it's not just being able to blindly parrot
off what you see, it's being able to assimilate the
probability of variation and accuracy, TS is an expert
but he does it for a living, its not just his life its
his passion, its in his blood, when it comes to weather
he IS a god. for us mere mortals we can simply follow
behind snacking up the crumbs learning as we go.
i bother posting on here for a couple of reasons
1)to hopefully get some constructive feedback on an event
that interests me and pick up on variations of what i
might be interpreting.
2) to help and keep informed those people who cant or don't
want to be bothered spending endless hours drilling down
into high resolution models to find out something that they
can read about on the forum in one paragraph.
however it seems i have digressed...........

Tek, you might be on the money yet, bom are forecasting
possible thunderstorms and up to 10 mm for tuesday, that's
pre rainband, but what i see atm paramaters need to re adjust
'cos soundings are saying "not a butt ugly chance in hell
sunshine"
watch this space................

TH
p.s. its taken me 5 hours to write this post amongst other
things win which time Tek beat me to it. im not going to
edit the post to accomodate the update.
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

Top
#1398047 - 21/12/2016 20:23 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
kgb007 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/12/2010
Posts: 1511
Loc: Hope Valley, SA
Bring it on I say, JE sounds like our long lost friend SD, uncanny! poke

Top
Page 1 of 20 1 2 3 ... 19 20 >


Moderator:  Helen, Lindsay Knowles, Markus, teckert 
Who's Online
88 registered (Chookie, NQ_Dee, Procella, meedee, Oriolus, Townsvilleblowin, Raindammit, former_qlder, redbucket, Taylsy, Willow, Delix, Pama, nthqlndr, Maisie, james1977, bber36, KBO, TeeCee, eRes, cold@28, Kat_, FoggyNights, Tiger5, Steven78, Leebie3, phreeky, WeatherNut96, BigBen, Steven, Jimi, justme, Tan, Mad Elf #1.5, Davey440, pabloako, Teddy, scorpion70, tag, Inclement Weather, Petros, Grazina Ajana, Mike Hauber, Dribbles, Weary, OICU812, TSVWeatherNerd, Renee09, synopig, GringosRain, Les Norton, ThunderBob, Popeye, Smallfry, exodus, Cycles, Kevin QLD, Kezza34, Latitude 21, SnowedIn, Tel, FujiWha, PASSING WIND, Dan101, Jezza, Fujita, marakai, Winter_lover, buster, Hagrid, Gabby, Mathew, Patrolit, dan, Tropical Desert, Rhino, Moldy, dormant, Matt_30, Snapper22lb, Doug, Rhubarb, Tailwind, Locke, 4 invisible), 781 Guests and 5 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Jamar, jimi747, Zephyr
Forum Stats
29193 Members
32 Forums
23561 Topics
1444599 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image