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#1398144 - 22/12/2016 10:37 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
BTW... EC off the charts this morning while others have backed away. This seems to be the pattern between all models atm, one has it off the charts while others go back to reality.
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1398146 - 22/12/2016 10:47 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
As Tim mentioned some moisture/instability on some models as early as Christmas Eve...



Edited by Jet entrance (22/12/2016 10:47)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1398150 - 22/12/2016 11:09 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: red earth]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Originally Posted By: red earth
[quote=puddles]
Totally agree puddles. Much prefer Weatherzone to Facebook when it comes to potential events/actual events in SA and the various personalities contributing to a "rousing" discussion. cool


Agreed. Would be lost without my weatherzones. Good to have TH back smile

Looking forward to this event big time. Would be the perfect end to the year.
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1398153 - 22/12/2016 11:47 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 181
Loc: Reynella, SA
Latest from BOM
Quote:
He said there would be "complicated interaction" between the systems over South Australia which would produce "a fair bit of what we term as chaos, in terms of weather patterns".


A chaotic weather pattern eek ! Now that sounds interesting indeed.

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#1398169 - 22/12/2016 13:43 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2077
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Going by the WZ plus app the temps have been revised back for Kalangadoo yesterday it said that Christmas Day was going to be 33, Boxing Day 37,Tuesday 38 and Wednesday 26 with 20-40mms forecast

At this point i am still confident that Boxing day will reach 37 and wouldn't be surprised if it has a crack at 40 degrees on Tuesday given my closest AWS is just down the road at Coonawarra

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#1398176 - 22/12/2016 15:01 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
"a fair bit of what we term as chaos, in terms of weather patterns".

ROFL, who the hell said that, that's a classic coming from a met.
weather is inherently about 80% chaos and 20% WTF.
i think maybe its technical talk for "we got NFI what's going
to happen."
i'm glad i'm not the only one scratching my head over this.

Je, sorry to hear you had a bad day. it happens and a bit of
ethanol doesn't help things on a forum front. i know, many
years ago TS and i used to regularly tear each others jugular
out, we eventually got over it and now were good mates.
who knows.......
on the forum it's impossible to pick up someones mood and when
i get a virtual stranger making a flippant quip about what
i've written it's like being slapped in the face with a leather
glove.
i spend a lot of time thinking about, researching, reading
and re-reading and editing my post's before i submit. i
started on that last post at around 2:30am and look at the
time of the post so you can see i put a lot of effort into
producing very high quality garbage for the forum.
the guys at TWC are awesome people and put up with a lot
from me in the early days and i owe them bigtime.
to the best of my knowledge i'm the only person who has the
"weatherzone ratbag" tag and i'm bloody proud of it but it
also means i've got a lot to live up to, LOL
i don't want to go on too much more off topic cos this is
Teks thread on an awesome upcoming event.
thanks for your kind words Chris, they mean a lot.
there's something i need to talk more about but not in this
topic.

QUOTE by Je
TW... EC off the charts this morning while others have backed
away. This seems to be the pattern between all models atm,
one has it off the charts while others go back to reality.

now that's a pessimistic view, how about looking at it as EC
has a dose of reality and the others have dropped the ball. wink
btw i also retract what i said about later on saying i told
you so. that's bordering on vindictive spite and is not right.
sorry.
just had a look at latest bom 10 day 12z run and nearly
spat my coffee all over the keyboard. were not even within
a bulls roar of the event and i'm rapidly running out of
superlatives to describe what i see.
also good to see this model is starting to crank up on
tot's which is the only instability parameter it runs, be
interesting to see if gfs 00z coming out shortly cranks
up it's instability parameters too.

TH
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#1398178 - 22/12/2016 15:06 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
TranslucidusW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/11/2003
Posts: 2662
Loc: Southern Adelaide
We should all have a nice cold glass of di-hydrogen monoxide!
_________________________
I don't know anything . . .
Sheidow Park Weather




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#1398182 - 22/12/2016 15:31 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: ThD Ht]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 181
Loc: Reynella, SA
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
"a fair bit of what we term as chaos, in terms of weather patterns".

ROFL, who the hell said that, that's a classic coming from a met.

TH


Quote:
South Australia to bake during Christmas heatwave before storms

Supervising meteorologist Matt Collopy

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/south...e-storms/525551


Edited by puddles (22/12/2016 15:33)

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#1398195 - 22/12/2016 17:38 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 541
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
So.. now its out there from BOM

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#1398197 - 22/12/2016 17:52 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Ricky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/09/2003
Posts: 1572
Loc: West Richmond
Wow, latest GFS has really backed off the rain, going for 10mm only for the Adelaide area now, for the whole event.

Either that or its got so confused it started dropping trailing 0's from the numbers.


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#1398198 - 22/12/2016 17:53 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1649
Loc: Uleybury
GFS will now struggle with the rain, usually does at times when it gets closer. BoM have up to 35mm Tuesday, up to 10mm the previous day

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#1398201 - 22/12/2016 18:04 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: TranslucidusW]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1615
Loc: Bridgewater
Originally Posted By: TranslucidusW
We should all have a nice cold glass of di-hydrogen monoxide!


i hear that stuff is corrrorive

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#1398205 - 22/12/2016 18:12 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2077
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
The updated forecast again from WZ plus app is for Tomorrow,Saturday and Sunday to be in the mid to high 30's followed by high 20's Monday to Wednesday with 20-40 mm still projected for the LSE

Wish that mother nature would make up her mind already first its Christmas Day,Boxing Day and Tuesday going to be boilers now it is completely changed defiantly reminds me of my Darwin holiday 2014 as its going to have that feel to it early next week

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#1398209 - 22/12/2016 18:37 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
EC 00z absolutely insane!!!! Yeah GFS is only within a slight change of massive totals though, has changed on every run whilst EC starting to show consistancy smile
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1398211 - 22/12/2016 18:50 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 596
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
How many millions of tonnes of H2O getting lifted?


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#1398213 - 22/12/2016 19:05 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
ok, things are starting to fall in a heap nicely.(sarcasm)
now i'm having a bad day.
atm i hate gfs
not a favorable run for adelaide at all, damnit.
gfs actually has the moisture plume narrowing and
stalling somewhat on the border.
the worst part is the endgame is moving forward and the
event is rapidly shortening.
this is starting to turn from something exceptional into
something rather ordinary.
and for those concerned about sparks i for the life of me
cannot drag anything out of any model that looks anything
remotely like the possibility of a storm anywhere south of
pt. agutta.
one would think with all that heat and moisture something
would have to happen, the models don't seem to be coming
together and colaborating well either, maybe things are
just too hard for the models to handle properly.
were still looking at a half decent drink with the emphasis
on half.
still this is only a run and things will be different on
the next run and the one after that etc. etc. and so-forth.

TH



Edited by ThD Ht (22/12/2016 19:06)
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#1398215 - 22/12/2016 19:15 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
hrmm.... apart from GFS still looks very wet to me.
Storms likely tomorrow night as well.

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#1398217 - 22/12/2016 19:23 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Originally Posted By: teckert
hrmm.... apart from GFS still looks very wet to me.
Storms likely tomorrow night as well.


where?

TH
_________________________



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#1398218 - 22/12/2016 19:26 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
Well the intensity of the heatwave has inevitably been cut, but still a good run of nice proper summer weather until the 29th when it turns to dung at this stage.

32C and light winds today, sun really has a bite on these still days.

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#1398221 - 22/12/2016 19:42 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7214
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
The runs on all models will change on a day-by-day basis! As a rough guide the current average rainfall for the Central Adelaide Hills is about 54 mm for GFS for the 27th-29th [valid to 18Z 21st].


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (22/12/2016 19:45)
Edit Reason: Validity
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Wood for the trees.

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