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#1398264 - 23/12/2016 10:24 NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 2965
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
We have reasonable prospect of storms across large parts of NSW over these days. The 24th looks most interesting with a cold upper trough. This despite some other poor factors may promote hail.

The downside of the 24th is very little shear through much of the atmosphere. The usual plan in this condition is to get onto the storms early as anvils will spread everywhere shutting down convection, then move to the nearest clear air (if you can).

Interesting that the BOM forecast for Illawarra Saturday has "Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon, possibly severe"

This would be the highlands only I suggest.

Today along the ranges may surprise, lets hope !
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Michael Thompson
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#1398266 - 23/12/2016 10:33 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Central Tablelands forecast for tomorrow is also possibly severe.

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#1398268 - 23/12/2016 10:51 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4131
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Lets hope that there is some early morning sun, cloud does look like it could be a problem.
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YTD 1000.6mm
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#1398282 - 23/12/2016 11:52 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5965
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Back on the coast again and I personally think for this area that today will be the best opportunity of getting something with a bit of shear to work with. Still it'll only be a very meagre chance and then tomorrow and Friday are probably almost 0% of a storm here due to pathetic shear.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1398285 - 23/12/2016 12:00 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: greg.l]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 2965
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: greg.l
Central Tablelands forecast for tomorrow is also possibly severe.


Just went through entire NSW forecast, and severe has been slapped into all except Sydney.

It would suggest flash flooding main issue, followed by hail and in last place wind.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1398298 - 23/12/2016 13:13 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4131
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Back on the coast again and I personally think for this area that today will be the best opportunity of getting something with a bit of shear to work with. Still it'll only be a very meagre chance and then tomorrow and Friday are probably almost 0% of a storm here due to pathetic shear.


So today being Friday has the best chance? but tomorrow and Friday are 0% of a storm?? poke laugh

Don't worry this time of the year I always struggle with what day it is too!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 3.1mm
YTD 1000.6mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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#1398308 - 23/12/2016 14:03 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2601
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
Originally Posted By: greg.l
Central Tablelands forecast for tomorrow is also possibly severe.


Just went through entire NSW forecast, and severe has been slapped into all except Sydney.

It would suggest flash flooding main issue, followed by hail and in last place wind.


Not surprised Michael, if you look at 18z GFS for tomorrow the rain dances around the Metropolitan all afternoon/evening.

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#1398314 - 23/12/2016 15:05 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1520
Loc: Kingsgrove NSW. Cooks Gap NS...
Good afternoon from Cooks Gap NSW.

Originally Posted By: ozthunder
Today along the ranges may surprise, lets hope !


Once again there are some very large storms forming in the Coolah area out to my North/North East. Just looking at them, I reckon there's a good chance that thye're quite heavy hailers.

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#1398316 - 23/12/2016 15:27 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: Max744]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 2965
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Max744
Good afternoon from Cooks Gap NSW.

Originally Posted By: ozthunder
Today along the ranges may surprise, lets hope !


Once again there are some very large storms forming in the Coolah area out to my North/North East. Just looking at them, I reckon there's a good chance that thye're quite heavy hailers.


Just does want to do it along central / southern Tablelands however
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Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1398317 - 23/12/2016 15:33 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1520
Loc: Kingsgrove NSW. Cooks Gap NS...
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
Originally Posted By: Max744
Good afternoon from Cooks Gap NSW.

Originally Posted By: ozthunder
Today along the ranges may surprise, lets hope !


Once again there are some very large storms forming in the Coolah area out to my North/North East. Just looking at them, I reckon there's a good chance that thye're quite heavy hailers.


Just does want to do it along central / southern Tablelands however



Very true Michael. Problem is that it always seems to do it about 100km's to my North frown

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#1398320 - 23/12/2016 16:08 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Not much happening here but I can see clouds forming out to the west towards Orange.Time will tell.

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#1398323 - 23/12/2016 16:19 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1520
Loc: Kingsgrove NSW. Cooks Gap NS...
They just seem to be going up, dumping and dissipating all in the one spot. Nothing to steer them frown

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#1398331 - 23/12/2016 16:51 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 209
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Storm that came through Armidale made it the coldest place in australia at that moment. 11.6 degrees.

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#1398355 - 23/12/2016 18:42 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: EddyG]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5965
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Back on the coast again and I personally think for this area that today will be the best opportunity of getting something with a bit of shear to work with. Still it'll only be a very meagre chance and then tomorrow and Friday are probably almost 0% of a storm here due to pathetic shear.


So today being Friday has the best chance? but tomorrow and Friday are 0% of a storm?? poke laugh

Don't worry this time of the year I always struggle with what day it is too!!




Omg I don't know what was going through my head when I wrote that post!! And worst thing is that I actually knew what day it was. Maybe because of that self inflicted fog this morning after night on the town.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1398380 - 23/12/2016 21:47 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Hearing some thunder now, a storm is approaching bathurst and might just clip my place.

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#1398384 - 23/12/2016 22:09 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1520
Loc: Kingsgrove NSW. Cooks Gap NS...
Well, we're basically surrounded by lightning out here at Cooks Gap. It's been flashing and rumbling for about 3 hours now. So far though we've only had a few large spots of rain. I can see the lightning coming from the one out near you Greg, in fact the entire Western Horizon is flashing away merrily smile

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#1398394 - 24/12/2016 06:35 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 458
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Bsch stormcast for today looks impressive. As some others. BoM not all that keen tho.

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#1398400 - 24/12/2016 08:15 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
davidm Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1543
Loc: Orange, NSW
Crazy storm last night at Orange - woke up at about 1am to constant thunder and lightning. After all that time down in Vic I forgot what that was like. Quite the light show, but couldn't will myself out of bed to shoot it. Was mostly cloud-obscured anyway. Bucket says 5mm from that smile

Still looks quite stormy out there, with a cell meandering around to my NW.
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#1398406 - 24/12/2016 09:08 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
There were some impressive totals last night, intense slow moving storms but most places missing out. A bit of flash bang at my place but not much rain. Maybe today will be more widespread.

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#1398408 - 24/12/2016 09:41 Re: NSW- Possible storms - 23 to 25 December 2016 [Re: ozthunder]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4131
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
What I would give to see some decent shear today, not that it would matter to me anyway as I'm at work till 4pm.

Anyone out chasing today? good luck!!

Plenty of high cloud about and warm too, at least the sea gale is being kept quiet atm!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 3.1mm
YTD 1000.6mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

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