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#1398014 - 21/12/2016 18:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 354
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
All good to watch GFS for week 2 - but with such significant differences between EC and GFS then it's all FI for now. Latest runs for +240:

GFS:



EC:



EC has the change already moved through and out to sea, GFS has it hanging back with an asssociated cold pool sitting over VIC...EC has that same cold pool done and dusted and out over the Tasman.

Talking of cold pools EC has a massive cold pool moving up over WA, meeting the remnants of the cyclones...going to be some huge falls over central and western Aus...just looks like it will fall apart before it gets to us. Maybe if we could see EC beyond 240 it could be exciting...Certainly the 15 days run last night showed some decent long term potential...
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#1398015 - 21/12/2016 18:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6459
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Well EC still has the upper low (albeit weak) crossing the central coast next week, while at the same time GFS has it miles out to sea. The former scenario would result in increased shower activity along the CQ and northern SEQ coasts with warm humid air continuing to filter down from the tropics to follow. The latter scenario would be much worse as logically speaking, a lot of that moisture would be whisked away to the SE. EC is definitely the preferred outcome for the longer term even if it isn't going for massive falls next week (though it still does have heavy falls running down the CQ coast).

EC:

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#1398017 - 21/12/2016 18:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4509
An average of the models typically works best than any particular model alone when there's big disagreement among models (with perhaps somewhat of a bias towards the more reliable models). It's also borne out in the objective skill stats.

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#1398063 - 21/12/2016 20:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Golden State Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 193
Loc: Buderim
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#1398076 - 21/12/2016 21:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 811
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Access is having a look... look at all that activity in the gulf as a potential follow up event.



Edited by Blowin' (21/12/2016 21:34)

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#1398077 - 21/12/2016 21:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 811
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
annnd GFS has it coming in from the ne

Something to watch. Is it A gulf coast hugger or a coral sea low?. Or nada?!


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#1398120 - 22/12/2016 07:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 55
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Any opinions/comments on the destiny of the significant Western Australia developing event in terms of easterly progress towards Queensland and possibly into the Downs/Southeast in the early New Year. Thanks.

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#1398151 - 22/12/2016 11:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4509
Well for what it's worth, here's the percentages of all the forecast scenarios from the ensemble version of GFS (based on yesterday's run) dropping total precip exceeding 25mm between 7 and 14 days from now - hasn't changed much in any recent runs despite the ever-changing forecast time window:



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#1398156 - 22/12/2016 12:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2610
Loc: Buderim
Latest GFS throws 3 low pressure systems down the coast. The first one is weak and brings some rain, the second and third stronger, but off the coast. Contrast to the last run which had the first low missing us, and a later low giving us good falls. Chopping and changing galore, but a pattern of something might happen.

And I have noticed that all the fun stuff has stayed in the 7-14 day timeframe and hasn't come forward into the window of reality. A reasonable excuse for holding onto hope is the idea that the tropical activity to the NW is just taking longer to push further east.

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#1398158 - 22/12/2016 12:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6459
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The first one is cold cored I think, spawned by the upper level low off the coast. 18z GFS aligned with EC and swings the upper low back towards the CQ coast rather than sitting a few hundred kilometres out to sea. While EC still swings the upper low back towards the coast it's very very weak this run with bugger all rainfall extending this far south. EC, though, does show interest in the gulf at +240 hours and the ensemble shows this as well, so GFS extended may well be onto something there. Whether anything that does form in the gulf makes it down this far is another story...

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#1398163 - 22/12/2016 12:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
A few people are already saying that ants are becoming more active, moving to higher ground etc, if we're in a neutral to La Ninalike pattern then we should get some decent amounts of rain.

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#1398227 - 22/12/2016 20:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 811
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Wind's onshore, plenty showers in the valley. More than the storm last night

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#1398389 - 24/12/2016 00:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: LightningGus]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4509
Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Other than the views, the most amazing thing I saw that day was some crazy bugger walking round the village (where the temperature was closer to -20C) in shorts and a t shirt!!!

I forgot to mention, I saw something similar at a Glen Innes motel I was staying at during last year's snowfalls. Some old'ish guy with a big beergut with no shirt and just a pair of shorts was walking around outside his room around 6:30am when conditions were bordering on freezing drizzle.

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#1398393 - 24/12/2016 06:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 937
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Lots of crazies in Glen Innes. Well I hope it comes off to some extent, home now and with all the storm action there has been around I expected a jungle lawn , dry as old toast though.


Edited by BIG T (24/12/2016 06:28)

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#1398416 - 24/12/2016 10:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1026
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Well its dry here in wynnum. Grass is browning off. No sign of decent rain. No sign of storms comming
Bleak outlook with boring weather
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1398420 - 24/12/2016 11:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1618
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
What a difference about 6 kms make ,Roma airport got 3.5mm and at my place 30mm and small hail.
Got to bring down weather station in new year and clean ,looks like a spider has made a home in the rain bucket again lol.
So hopefully will add a webcam .I am removing some big radio antennas and use the rotator to catch weather from different directions.
Have a merry Christmas all ,Think of others in need and drive safe.
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BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1398421 - 24/12/2016 11:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
2017 is a new year, hopefully it brings a break in the drought.

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#1398423 - 24/12/2016 11:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1093
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Looking back, I don't think SEQ has seen a widespread, warm season heavy rain event since March 2014. SFA this summer so far, last season was wet locally but was just storm rain, 2014/15 had cyclone Marcia but that wasn't really a widespread event with most areas away from the coast receiving bugger all. Surely we are due this season, its that dry here the place is starting to look like Townsville for christs sake!!

And on that cheerful note Merry Christmas everyone!!
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2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 378mm ytd

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#1398432 - 24/12/2016 12:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
All we can do is wait and keep our fingers crossed that something does come, the last lot of big rain here would have been Oswald in early 2013.

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#1398450 - 24/12/2016 14:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2751
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
A lovely sunny warm Christmas Eve.
Merry Christmas to all and may the rain gods return with some late christmas pressies this time next week with buckets of rain.

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