Page 1 of 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >
Topic Options
#1398712 - 26/12/2016 08:23 NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3208
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It looks like quite a hot spell coming up for our part of the world for Christmas week, especially away from the coast. Ex-TC Yvette and the remains of the tropical low now over moving into SA will rapidly cross continent and into the Bight, bringing rain to the NT and SA. Further East, it will be dragging the very hot tropical air mass that gave SA and Vic a scorching Christmas over our region.

Here are examples from this morning's seven day forecast:
Code:
Sydney OH:  seven consecutive 29+    peaking at 38 on the 29th
Penrith:    seven consecutive 35+    peaking at 43 on the 30th
Wallsend:   seven consecutive 34+    peaking at 45 on the 30th
Bathurst:   seven consecutive 30+    peaking at 36 on the 29th,  30th
Canberra:   six consective    32+    peaking at 35 on the 29th
Nowra:      six consecutive   31+    peaking at 38 on the 29th


850 temperatures look to peak at around 24 on the 29th and 30th. The BOM Heatwave service shows a severe heatwave (extreme in parts near the coast) during the period.

Fire Danger doesn't look to bad today but it is likely to increase. Possible thinderstorms are forecast on some days.

The circulation looks to be a fairly weak N-NW, like a late Summer heatwave situation, so there won't be much resistance to the sea breeze. That's a plus for the fire situation. Humidity also looks relatively high, another plus. Both of these considerations make me a bit skeptical about some of the higher ("courageous?") forecasts for coastal locations.

A cool and probably wet change looks set to arrive on the 31st-1st, after which we seem to move into a cooler, wetter pattern, but that's a way off.





Edited by Seabreeze (26/12/2016 21:17)
Edit Reason: added state and year

Top
#1398714 - 26/12/2016 08:42 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
I don't like the hot weather, one reason I live in the tablelands, but a bit of hot dry weather will be good for my vineyard. Due to the wet spring there has been excessive growth in the shiraz, but the bunches are still quite small, so a bit of heat stress will stop the growing tips and hopefully keep the berries small. Small berries means a better skin/juice ratio which means better flavours.

Top
#1398719 - 26/12/2016 08:58 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3208
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Greg - hope all goes well for your vinyard.

If the forecast is correct for Sydney (and I have doubts as indicated above), Sydney OH will just miss out on its all time record max for December, ending at 28.4 (3.2 above the long term average), compared to 28.6 in 1990 and 2005. It will be one of only three Decembers with an average max of 28+.

The record minimum would come out at 20.1, equalling the record set in 1990 and 2.6 above the long term mean.

Some stations in our part of the State are likely to break their records.


Edited by Steve777 (26/12/2016 08:59)
Edit Reason: second last para

Top
#1398723 - 26/12/2016 09:14 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5287
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
Thanks for working that out Steve, very interesting. Will be good to see how much influence any cloud or seabreeze has on the temperatures, but certainly nights are guaranteed to be warm. If Obs Hill ends up at what you said, would that mean it will be the second warmest December on record combining min and max?

Top
#1398754 - 26/12/2016 12:19 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5619
Loc: Wollongong NSW
It's basically a carbon copy of yesterday here today except a little hotter. 27C at Albion Park but it's a bit over 30C here.

Does not at all surprise me that we will get the hottest December record for nights and close to it for days.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1398756 - 26/12/2016 12:53 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5619
Loc: Wollongong NSW
There's actually a fair amount of storm clouds around today. It's dry convection but still convection nonetheless. I expect some storms to spark up on the Southern Highlands soon. Temp is currently a hot 31.7C with a moderate NEer.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1398762 - 26/12/2016 13:44 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4985
Loc: Dural
Temp currently 32.4 here WR, and there's quite a bit of convection here as well.

Top
#1398765 - 26/12/2016 14:26 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
chapo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/02/2012
Posts: 300
Loc: Campbelltown
a storm just popped up on the radar near appin

Top
#1398768 - 26/12/2016 14:46 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: chapo]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3208
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: chapo
a storm just popped up on the radar near appin


And another near Warragamba, now heading E-SE towards the Ingleburn area and maybe the coast. A lot of bubbly cumulus clouds to the West since around noon, with the Western sky now looking quite cluttered.

The BOM got today's Sydney temps right. It's probably maxed at 29 at OH, 34.9 at Penrith (although might go higher).

Top
#1398776 - 26/12/2016 16:39 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 659
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Interesting that Wallsend in western Newcastle is going for 45C on Friday, when most of the Lower Hunter, Maitland, Cessnock and even Singleton are all going for 42C on this day.
Unless all the heat funnels down there and peaks there, it will be on a par at best.
Still going for at least 2 days in a row over 40C, after Saturday has now been downgraded to 37C.
It is certainly going to be a hot spell regardless.
Edit: Wallsend going for 43C on Friday, so is expected to peak there.
Buladelah looks like the pick for heat though, 44C on Friday.


Edited by DerekHV (26/12/2016 16:48)
Edit Reason: extra

Top
#1398777 - 26/12/2016 16:43 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8281
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Thurs has been downgraded to 37C for Obs hill, now they expect NW winds before it shifts to NE/SE in the afternoon, meaning that the peak will have to happen before that swing.

Cloud is the other issue as the remnants of the tropical low drift east. (Latest GFS has every day cloudy if not overcast, Thurs might get enough clearance for proper heat provided the seabreeze stays away)

Top
#1398780 - 26/12/2016 17:18 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3208
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Wallsend has now been 'downgraded' to 43 in the latest forecast, compared to 42 for other centres in the Hunter away from the coast. That makes more sense. It has also toned the heat down a bit and brought the change in early on the 31st for Sydney.

Storms seem to be falling apart quickly but more are still popping up. Might get something later in the East but I'm not hopeful.

Meanwhile, GFS now shows us a new alternative weather future for 8-16 days out, cooler but probably better for the Sydney Test. Experience says that's not wirth analysing at this stage as it will flip again.

EDIT: Greg - even with the downgraded forecast heat, plus today's temps (correctly forecast), we look to be on track for the second hottest December at OH (157 years of record). The hottest would remain 1990 (20.1-28.6).


Edited by Steve777 (26/12/2016 17:27)

Top
#1398788 - 26/12/2016 18:29 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 840
Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
Looks as though a cell went over my place 20 minutes ago. Looks like it died not long after passing.

I'm in Darlinghurst so cannot confirm whether there was moderate rain etc. Hard to tell from radar.
_________________________
The pitter patter of rain falling is the sweetest sound you'll ever hear.

Top
#1398794 - 26/12/2016 19:09 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
BrightSide Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/11/2015
Posts: 36
Loc: Sutherland Shire, New South Wa...
We had pretty heavy rain at about 6pm. It lasted about 15 minutes. It's sunny again, now. I'd only just come home from walking with my dog at Greenhills.

Top
#1398805 - 26/12/2016 21:32 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 3939
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Interesting Bulahdelah going for 3 days in a row above 40 degrees. Does Bula have an official weather station? I remember the School having one many years ago!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 344.9mm
YTD 949.6mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

Top
#1398810 - 26/12/2016 22:12 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 758
Loc: Cammeray
I don't think it does. MetEye loves giving it a few degrees on surrounding areas in hot spells so I'd like to see if that's actually the case

Top
#1398815 - 26/12/2016 22:30 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Jimi]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 3939
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: Jimi
I don't think it does. MetEye loves giving it a few degrees on surrounding areas in hot spells so I'd like to see if that's actually the case


I can remember going to school there and having some absolute stinker days, but Bula is well protected from the NE breeze from Alum Mountain which is probably close to 300 metres in height, but yeah would love to see an AWS there that's for sure!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 344.9mm
YTD 949.6mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

Top
#1398819 - 26/12/2016 22:45 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: EddyG]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 659
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Interesting Bulahdelah going for 3 days in a row above 40 degrees. Does Bula have an official weather station? I remember the School having one many years ago!!


Closest inactive stations are Girvan State Forest and Coolongolook.
Otherwise they show Forster forecasts and stats, which are right on the coast and not a true indication.
There must be some sort of unofficial station there, as they have shown it on the local news before.

Top
#1398821 - 26/12/2016 23:03 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: DerekHV]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 3939
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Interesting Bulahdelah going for 3 days in a row above 40 degrees. Does Bula have an official weather station? I remember the School having one many years ago!!


Closest inactive stations are Girvan State Forest and Coolongolook.
Otherwise they show Forster forecasts and stats, which are right on the coast and not a true indication.
There must be some sort of unofficial station there, as they have shown it on the local news before.


I know the school used to have a Stevenson screen many years ago, whether they still do or not, I don't know, I might have to make some enquiries!!

But Girvan would be very similar to Bula, Coolongolook is reasonably close to lake Wallis therefore it would be susceptible to a sea breeze.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD 344.9mm
YTD 949.6mm
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eddygroot/
YNWA

Top
#1398854 - 27/12/2016 11:14 Re: NSW Year End Heatwave - December 27th 2016 to January 1st 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3654
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I suspect what's happening is that the forecast (and analysis) system is splicing the anomalies from elsewhere onto the averages from the long-closed stations. This phenomenon shows up most dramatically on the SA Nullarbor - on very hot days there there's often an analysis 'bubble' around the former site at Cook when Nullarbor Roadhouse's anomalies are spliced onto Cook's averages.

At locations which have active stations, there's a bias-correction mechanism which offsets model forecast errors (roughly speaking, by looking at the average model bias over the last 30 days), but this doesn't work in places like Bulahdelah with no stations.

Top
Page 1 of 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >


Who's Online
1 registered (JimmyGray), 260 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
flylady, rainsomemore
Forum Stats
29297 Members
32 Forums
23625 Topics
1454147 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image