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#1398364 - 23/12/2016 19:29 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17707
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Looking at the sky and satpic over the city ATM, you'd be forgiven for thinking it's going to go off nocturnally later... sky looks very sexy lol...

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#1398365 - 23/12/2016 19:31 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
yeah it's all died and contracted north like a fatal case of shrinkage. Saw one distant CG and a few rumbles.

As there were no storms forecast to begin with, probably a bit unfair to call this a fizzer but it is a disappointment to add to the list of this crap Melbournesque month. Oh well, time to enjoy some summer weather before the next southerly infestation.

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#1398366 - 23/12/2016 19:59 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 842
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: teckert
Looking at the sky and satpic over the city ATM, you'd be forgiven for thinking it's going to go off nocturnally later... sky looks very sexy lol...


Yeah, nice and spekky, but looks a bit thin ;-)


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#1398374 - 23/12/2016 21:23 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: teckert
Looking at the sky and satpic over the city ATM, you'd be forgiven for thinking it's going to go off nocturnally later... sky looks very sexy lol...


If I hadn't run Showalter I would have been excited, at the sexy sky wink

Having said that, small cell now appears near Pt Lincoln, and it's gone mental east of the ranges and on the border from that mass of cloud. Strange weather atm...


Edited by Jet entrance (23/12/2016 21:27)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1398378 - 23/12/2016 21:37 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Just looked at the models and realise now why it's so quiet in here...

Let's just hope it changes or CMC comes off. EC different to GFS which is different to ACCESS-R which is different to ACCESS-G. None of those 4 are the same lol
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1398379 - 23/12/2016 21:40 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance


Having said that, small cell now appears near Pt Lincoln

That may be just radar interference...
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1398383 - 23/12/2016 22:06 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17707
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
I'm sticking with cmc. It's been the same fo 8 days running and seems to make the most sense in regards to where everything ends up etc..
Still 40-60mm for me I reckon for the city. Higher falls for sure in nw pastoral and west coast.

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#1398388 - 24/12/2016 00:01 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
BOM not updating the observations since 9pm. One of the work experience kids must've stuffed up

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#1398392 - 24/12/2016 00:56 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17707
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
60mm already for Ernabella. Just shows you that models are already not reading very well how much moisture is actually in this.... They were expected to only get 5-10mm today... with most of their rain to come.

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#1398402 - 24/12/2016 08:23 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17707
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
well after 8 days of consistency, CMC has finally decided that the heavy rains will be over the west.... so much for that.... although widespread 30mm is nothing to be sneezed at for December. We just dont see the 50+ that we couldve got....

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#1398413 - 24/12/2016 10:00 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust

Some pics from yesterday. All taken around Gladstone. Couldn't fluke a lightning shot though I saw plenty. Finished the day with 2mm of rain and yes Werner I'm happier now. smile

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#1398414 - 24/12/2016 10:04 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1668
Loc: Adelaide
Some nice colours there smile

I have the day free to myself, so I'd love to go out and chase. Seems like I'd be having to go 500+ks though to see anything
_________________________
2019: 185.8mm
2018: 329.2mm
2017: 478.0mm
2016: 680.0mm
2015: 392.8mm
2014: 450.4mm
2013: 470.6mm
2012: 426.8mm
2011: 518.2mm
2010: 549.4mm
2009: 459.2mm
Yearly Average: 460mm

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#1398415 - 24/12/2016 10:06 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Ripper photos STL! Nice beasty storm.

Lovely smell in the air this morning, almost feels like a storm day, sadly models say no for Adelaide, looks to be north of Pt Wakefield today. Should be some convection on the ranges locally though surely?!?!
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1398429 - 24/12/2016 12:11 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Nice Skys. Could tell they were your photos before checking username poke

At least we'll get something. Tuesday 8 to 35mm realistic?
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1398431 - 24/12/2016 12:48 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
good stuff StL,
i got some pics of that absolutely humongous beast that formed
near balaclava but as my avatar says they are just way too cool
to display. poke
but seriously folks.........
while i was up north i hunted down and shot a turkey for
Christmas dinner, problem was the people in the frozen food
dept. were running and screaming everywhere.
no really.....seriously now.....
we need to take a step back from all this, we (and i say we
as in s.a.) got some mind blowing storms yesterday, its just
there weren't too many people to input on them mores the
pity. it went crazy through the upper spencer gulf/iron
triangle as well as east of clare/north of riverland and
not to forget upper EP where it all started.
if i was living interstate i would have been foaming at the
mouth @ what was happening here.
so much for what was, more importantly what's yet to come...
huge amounts of heat and huge amounts of moisture, what
more could one want, if you got an evaporative air con you're
gunna wish you hadn't, if you got a refrigerated air con
you're going to be making cupious amounts of fresh water.
someone's going to get heaps of rain and someone is not going
to get so much. like throwing rocks into a crowd, you know
someone's going to get hit you just dont know who until after
it's happened.
models have been pretty much pitching, rolling and yawing on
this event since it first came on the radar,(metaphorically
speaking), and i would imagine they will continue to do so
right up until analysis.
i think we all need a chrissy to remember, a new datum point
we can all refer back to in the future, it'll only be as good
as any one of us decide to make it. i'm just simply going to
slide into this with open eyes and a puckered butt. and
whatever will be will be.
if EP gets washed into the bight and we get bugger all so be
it, good luck to them. if we end up getting 100mm in 24 hrs
then lucky us.
the models have backed off a bit which has lowered the 'foam
at the mouth factor' but they still ain't too bad, if they
stayed the way they were too many people would have had a
horrible holiday season so its a good thing they have.
be interesting to see if they still trend down.

TH
_________________________



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#1398434 - 24/12/2016 13:10 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2285
Loc: Clare, SA
I'm surprised you felt that good about yesterday TH, admittedly it went better than I thought it would, storms were quite widespread! I was at Crystal Brook and got hammered quite nicely by cg's and torrential rain. but cloud structure wise it wasn't overly interesting, infact I didn't take a single pic of that storm.

Was typical SA stuff, quite high based storms with plenty of cg's, no complaints at all but it was average compared to many of the days I've seen this season.

Glad to see you got a bit of a feast skysthelimit!
_________________________
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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1398444 - 24/12/2016 14:23 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
hi markus,
yer from where i was the storm that went over you was as black
as a dogs guts but i've seen that stuff before and it's
certainly not photogenic. best i got was an rfb fest.
some good base structure around my immediate area. i've had
more than my share of bust chases, just my situation now the
cost in time, money and frustration is much higher.
i certainly didn't feel that good about yesterday when i got
home.

TH
_________________________



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#1398448 - 24/12/2016 14:38 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Keeping track of the temperature (and various other parameters) for this period for GFS runs...temperature is telling from about Monday to Thursday coming. Up until tomorrow (25th) temperature is very certain, then for those 3-4 days it is very erratic and uncertain (although generally lower than 35 degrees C), then it returns to certainty from about Friday (somewhere between 25 and 30 degrees C). Moisture (dewpoints) are also much higher 26th-29th. Definitely something on the way smile . In fact I'd call it ominous if I had nothing else to go by.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (24/12/2016 14:40)

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#1398488 - 24/12/2016 18:19 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17707
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
CMC goes back to what its been forecasting all along.... wink


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#1398520 - 24/12/2016 20:02 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yep, that doesn't surprise me in the least although from that
it's going to grab the riverland by the scruff of the neck and
give it a right royal dunking. now its got EP as light on.
aaahhhh, don't ya love it, best thing is to throw the whole
damn lot in the WTF, NFI basket and just kick back and watch
it all happen live.
i'm thinking of going on a rain chase, i love driving in the
rain...er...i mean corepunch, lol.
normal people drive in whatever weather situation is happening,
stormchasers corepunch it wether it's heat, cold, humid, rain,
wind, whatever........
i've done worse, in severe SDS i've ripped out and got me
rocks off corepunching fog.
talking about corepunching.......
go to WZ layers and drill down hard on that convective gem off
broome, DROOOOOOOOL!!!!!!!!!, man wouldn't i love to corepunch
that.

TH
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