NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 8 of 20 < 1 2 ... 6 7 8 9 10 ... 19 20 >
Topic Options
#1398659 - 25/12/2016 20:31 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
00z GFS run today is already way off on what's happening now.

It will be raining here by midnight unless it falls to peices. Looks impressive atm...

Sky looks very nice indeed, sexy as Tim would say lol


Edited by Jet entrance (25/12/2016 20:36)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1398660 - 25/12/2016 20:32 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Purnong Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 124
Loc: Tooperang, SA
Radar looks interesting at the moment

Top
#1398663 - 25/12/2016 20:37 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: ThD Ht]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)

The tropical feature to the north of SA forcing winds to
come from the south-east with higher humidity over Adelaide.
My take smile .


yes i am talking about tomorrow too.
i see now what you're looking at, surface winds up to
about 900hpa, 1) they're shallow, 2) they're light and
most importantly 3) they're as dry as a lime burners boot.
they're actually turning into higher DPs once they get
into areas of rain as they head for the low near surveyor
generals corner.

I didn't even mention 900 hPa, it doesn't matter...enjoy the event for whatever it is smile . I'm looking forward to a drop of rain and milder temps.

Top
#1398669 - 25/12/2016 21:12 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Purnong Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 124
Loc: Tooperang, SA
There must be something on the way, Nullarbor recorded 25mm in 2.5 hours

Top
#1398671 - 25/12/2016 21:30 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yer i see where you're coming from Je,
gfs has been good to me over the years, thats why i'm relying
on it so much but at the moment its on psychotic drugs and
simply can't get a grip on reality, a bit like me.
the ooz run of GFS shows showers over upper spencer gulf from
7.30pm
they're running almost directly south, could be hard pressed
to get here by midnight, but that stuff forming east of pt.
augusta might get to us by then.

TH



Top
#1398674 - 25/12/2016 21:46 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Yeah poor GFS ain't what it used to be, EC been a far more accurate model. But that's for another day in another thread.

Love seeing showers move in a N-S direction TH, reminds me of the early 90's when we had some monster storms in humid tropical feeds smile


Edited by Jet entrance (25/12/2016 21:47)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1398675 - 25/12/2016 21:49 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1731
Loc: Adelaide Hills
looks like the current showers will go south of the adelaide area.

maybe tomorrow

Top
#1398678 - 25/12/2016 21:54 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yer your not kidding Je, some good stuff back then.
when i was in the se my fav. storms were ones that came in
from the east or north east on a retrograde moisture pool
and trough.

TH
_________________________



Top
#1398680 - 25/12/2016 22:03 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Turnip5 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 130
Loc: Semaphore
Crabs are off the beach at Sema4, very puffy out there!

Top
#1398682 - 25/12/2016 22:07 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
So windy! Just got a huge gusty blast.

The crabs are literally up on the beach at semaphore Turnip? Or is that just a saying?
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




Top
#1398683 - 25/12/2016 22:10 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: Chris #3]
Turnip5 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 130
Loc: Semaphore
Wrong time of year for the crabs = march/april, just a saying.. Reckon it's going to pour too..

Top
#1398689 - 25/12/2016 22:25 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
certainly interesting watching the areas of rain develop
and close in, almost like a b grade movie from the50s,
attack of the killer rainband.

TH
_________________________



Top
#1398690 - 25/12/2016 22:40 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 800
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
Been hot here in gulfview heights today. 40.1C at 3:47 PM.

At 10:00 PM still 31.9C.

Looks like in the northern suburbs, we will only get the edge of that rain that's coming.
_________________________
Current Gulfview Heights weather
http://ryanhothersall.net/gulfview-heights-weather/

Top
#1398703 - 26/12/2016 01:34 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 842
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Hmm, a fair bit of rain just to the west of Adelaide right now:



Nullarbor 27.2mm so far since 25 Dec 9am total .. they've had a fair bit this last 72hrs or so..


Edited by betsuin (26/12/2016 01:38)

Top
#1398704 - 26/12/2016 03:27 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
radar has got precipitation going over me but there is no wet
on the concrete outside, looks like it's going to take a little
while to prime the lower atmosphere with with enough moisture
for it to turn from virga into rain. pity it wasnt daytime to be
able to see the cloud structure, looked nuts just after sundown.

TH
_________________________



Top
#1398705 - 26/12/2016 03:50 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
aha, the odd clandestine drop of rain is just starting to
spat the concrete now.

TH
_________________________



Top
#1398707 - 26/12/2016 06:55 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Thought I'd finally add something to this thread....models have been all over the shop but gradually coming to some sort of agreement apart from GFS. Certainly nothing like the event that it could have been but still a decent event.

Essentially dribs and drabs for now down here with a lot of dry air below the moist mids and uppers, more solid rain further west coming down with the deep tropical low, very deep moisture there, cloud tops regularly exceeding 55,000ft on that low with PWATS over 65mm. 220mm at Kintore in SW NT so far since 9am yest and still coming down, and would be expecting similar but at least 100-150mm falls into NW SA, gradually thinning as the low moves SE and accelerates towards the westerly belt and weakens completely. So not a lot here till the low approaches, 3-8mm prob before it does over today and first part of tomorrow before a general moderate to heavier band of rain where we should see 20-30mm, potentially 40mm fairly quickly with the core of that deep moisture in the low moving almost right over us. GFS has it going through no mans land and beyond which is a bit rich.

I should add that the West Coast and EP will prob see the best of the tropical low rain, and should see falls in order of 40-75mm.

Then we are left with a break with a very moist PBL. ACCESS-R progging dp's in order of 24-26C ahead of strethening sfc cold front with upper low behind with very deep 977hPa sfc low. Should see a band of showers and thunderstorms develop on this front and move ESE through wed afternoon...where they develop is the hard question for now...GFS has it basically ranges and east but I feel EP is the best area for things to start, increasing over YP and gulf areas into Adelaide. Much better CAPE further east but I feel a little sfc heating wed morning if we can get some clearance will see some very good MLCAPE...especially with the real guts of the warm tropical air aloft being moved away so uppers will cool nicely in response to large upper low west. Wed is our best chance of a good thunderstorm....anything that gets up could have potential like Jan 22nd this year, perhaps not quite that volatility but not far off it. See how things go over next 24hrs. Gardens will be getting a fair drink later tuesday.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (26/12/2016 07:03)

Top
#1398708 - 26/12/2016 07:16 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
thanks TS,
storms for here but east of the ranges looking best by the looks,
yer with such a high DP on the PBL low based HP beasts the
order of the day.
and like you just said and i said before the lower layers are dry as, even with deep green near yellow going over me still no rain showing on the concrete.
lotsa big stuff going past to the sw.

TH
_________________________



Top
#1398711 - 26/12/2016 08:15 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
if nothing the precipitation that started coming down around
3:30am at least cooled things down, prior to 3:30 it took
5hrs to drop 2, after 3:30 it took 1hrs to drop 6
it appears the areas of rain are starting to swing more to the
east as well as the line of convergence is moving northward.
should be in for some rain soon. i'm in no hurry, usually with
stuff like this the longer it takes to get here the longer it
takes to go away.

Th
_________________________



Top
#1398731 - 26/12/2016 10:05 Re: SA - Storms & Rain event - 23rd-29th Dec 2016 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Models this morning have upped the totals again to 40-80mm for the Central areas moving the heaviest rain over us, not in the west of the state.

One thing is for certain about this system, that is no one has any idea what we will get or when we will get it. In 3 days time we will all find out smile

If superior forecasting models can't work it out then it's just a guess from anyone else, lucky dip.


Edited by Jet entrance (26/12/2016 10:06)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
Page 8 of 20 < 1 2 ... 6 7 8 9 10 ... 19 20 >


Moderator:  Helen, Lindsay Knowles, Markus, teckert 
Who's Online
1 registered (1 invisible), 41 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Evil Kitty, Jake, ka0tik_pengwin, Nullamanna WX, shaunandwendy, stormygirl
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529247 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image