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WATL getting excited with 100-150mm after new years eve.
If its still there Friday, I will be excited.
Satellite now showing a bit of curving.
Just waiting for the media to get sniffing & building it into a monster.

A few things have caught my attention, water vapour imagery still looks very good, http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html as at 7:04 Wed. morning 2016

The BoM's weekly forecast for next Sunday - Tuesday
"The upper trough near the central Queensland coast will most likely remain slow moving while weakening. This will likely maintain a medium to high chance of showers and possible storms about the central and Capricornia coasts. The trough over the southern interior will likely shift further east over the south of the state during the outlook period. A band of showers and storms will accompany the passage of this trough, most likely reaching southeast Queensland on Monday. Warm to hot conditions will persist through southern districts ahead of the trough."

The Himawari-8 Satellite http://satview.bom.gov.au/ shows a nice circular formation with cloud being dragged into the system.

And also at this stage Wed. is topping 33C after a warm night of 25C then a plummet on Tuesday of a max of 26C. Plus other things you run through. But these are the simple ones to keep an eye on and also the 4 day outlook chart is a good one but that will be updated before 14:00 this arvo. It may fall to pieces as with any weather event, or it may gives us low that brings some heavy showers/rain and some refreshing breeze or it could strengthen?
A lot of factors and ifs and 6 days out but worth keeping an eye on this one.

That sat is looking great, in particular the water vapour loop.
SST is perfect, whats the shear like?
Anything apart from shear stopping it spinning up, dry air?
Love to get one up on WA, even if it is a liiitle noisier than a wet fart.

It's a ordinary upper low that is doing their usual job of pushing dry air well north and destroying any possibility of cyclonic activity over the coral sea. It is not my extremely worthless opinion, I have heard it enough from bureau forecasters over the decades. The bureau says it is going to weaken eventually.
Regards to everyone

Thanks for explanation Hopeful, as long as it brings buckets of rain, dont care what it is.

I'm on the Capricorn Coast, is there a big rain even coming up next week ? GFS site I look at has just the 6th of January on 40mm as the biggest rain day ?

Or are we going to miss out and SE Qld gets rain?

That's Ok I am hoping for plenty of good rain, even for the southern Downs.

I looked earlier and it had 'Heavy rain' as the forecast for next wednesday with Mon-Tue also wet. Wednesday forecast is now missing from the week ahead but It'd be great seeing nice chunky onshore showers for a few days.

00Z GFS runs still sticking to its guns with big rainfall totals for SE QLD.

Final part of the run has a tropical low skirting the coast about 9th January thankfully about 4-5 days before the king tides on 13th January.

An interesting 2 weeks in the pipeline though if forecasts continue to hold.

EC continues to ramp the convergence area particularly just to the north of Fraser Island Wide Bay/Capricornia areas Extremely big falls!

You can see the convergence run down the coast on the EC model here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...xpos=0&ypos=500 , but the latest run has shifted further south towards Hervey Bay, whereas this morning's run stalled it near Gladstone. This will continue to change in the coming days.

If precipitation amounts is what you're after then you can use https://www.windytv.com/ .

So in summary we have GFS, EC, NOGAPS, and CMC all dragging the monsoon trough down to at least the Capricorn Coast next week, with the main convergence and heavy rain just to its south. That will continue to change of course, but there is also still uncertainty over what happens after that with the gulf low. It could ride the ridge through central australia back towards the west, or, if it doesn't get picked up by the ridge, it could catch a ride SE through QLD along a new upper level trough the models have started to show in the last few runs. My money is on the gulf low heading west with a new LOW (probably cold cored due to the upper trough) developing next week. Still a very very long way to go yet though to start talking about that.

I can't believe we are still 5-6 days away from this event even starting down here...so many things can change between now and then that I don't think I can even call it yet.

Agree to a certain extent but were starting to see some alignment with the models and a little consistency between runs on a broader scale that makes this certainly worthy of discussion.

Heck, if I recall we started discussing Yasi when it appeared on extended GFS forecasts 14 days out.

This is one of those interesting cases where there's a significant difference between the deterministic version of EC and its own ensemble.

Its ensemble currently has modest 1 to 30% probabilities of accumulated rainfall of 500mm or greater within the 72hrs up to 10am Saturday.


P.S. LightningGus, nah I didn't go to the obs deck. I was quite happy with what the scene looked like from where I was.

Actually I should've added to the above post that if the min threshold of the rainfall amounts is lowered to say 100 mm, the ensemble currently has 40 to 65% probabilities of exceeding that around the Capricornia and Wide Bay districts within the 72hrs up to 10am next Thursday.

Perhaps 2017 will end up like 1996 with big rain events in January and May of that year.

No doubt something big will happen at some stage. It's inevitable.

New tread started on upcoming rain event here .

I am looking south from just north of Howard and I am seeing plenty of cloud on the horizon in a line roughly from Biggenden to Eurong Fraser Island. There is no cloud around us north of Howard but why dont those clouds south of us show up on radar would have thought they were big enough to be picked up.