Page 4 of 23 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 22 23 >
Topic Options
#1397713 - 19/12/2016 16:01 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is strengthening over northern Australia. A tropical low is forming in the Arafura Sea, north of the Tiwi Islands. The low is forecast to develop further in the Timor Sea during Monday and Tuesday before tracking to the southwest near or alongside the west Kimberley coastline on Wednesday and Thursday. The likelihood of this system developing into a tropical cyclone increases late on Tuesday or on Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:Moderate

A tropical low is situated within the monsoon trough near 15.9S 115.1E, 550 kilometres north northwest of Karratha, and is near stationary. This low has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours and is likely to develop further over the coming days. It is expected to be slow moving before tracking to the east on Wednesday remaining well north of the Western Australian mainland. The risk for this system to reach tropical cyclone intensity increases to High on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Moderate
Tuesday:High
Wednesday:High
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1397725 - 19/12/2016 17:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: sswanss]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Karratha, WA
Oh other seasons for Karratha have felt like this is all smirk hoping it's a bumper of a season with lots of rain for our arid area! SSU just released a formal invest and its banking on the Timor Sea low not making it out into the ocean, thus not making TC intensity. Let's see how much this changes over the next 24hrs hey haha Also said the Indian Ocean low has rapidly intensified in the last 12 hrs but not expected to impact WA


Edited by Weathergrrl (19/12/2016 17:09)

Top
#1397726 - 19/12/2016 17:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
GFS have an interesting take on the above in the latest run with the low out west now steaming on and crossing 80 mile beach area as you mentioned as a possibility the other day.... bad luck I'm down here in vic with 7c mornings!

Top
#1397742 - 19/12/2016 19:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Hurricane force Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 4184
Loc: Cairns, Parramatta park.
IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:21 pm WST on Monday 19 December 2016
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A tropical low was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 16.0S 114.9E, that is 570 km
north northwest of Karratha and 620 km northwest of Port Hedland and moving
south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday but is not
expected to affect the WA mainland in the next 48 hours.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 pm AWST.

_________________________
MTD: 27.0mm
YTD: 2443.7 mm

October- 12.0mm

2014- 2352.6mm
2015- 2635.1mm
2016- 1495.7mm
2017- 2190.0mm
________________________
"Some people feel the rain, others just get wet

Top
#1397748 - 19/12/2016 20:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18617
Loc: The Beach.
Looks more like a CS track map than WA.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1397749 - 19/12/2016 20:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Great to see some action in WA again
Seems to be hovering around for a few days. Just needs to hang out there until the 26th when I get back home
Wishful thinking. Glad to see the weather again keeping everyone guessing.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1397750 - 19/12/2016 20:41 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1647
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a time-lapse of satellite images for the last 24 hours (it updates every 30 minutes).
http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pilbara.asp

Lovely to see the convection building.



Edited by pabloako (19/12/2016 20:56)
Edit Reason: Can't spell!
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Himawari Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

Top
#1397751 - 19/12/2016 20:41 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Smacking straight down into the Pilbara As a big sloppy wet Cat 1 is probably the best outcome considering how little rain they have had in the last few years.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1397753 - 19/12/2016 20:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Nice timelapse. Thanks
Interesting to see the clear sky between the two Lows. Looking forward to the whacky interactions, if any, between the two. Ec seems to have them melding together and sticking around for some time
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1397763 - 19/12/2016 22:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
Yay... have been looking forward to this season. smile hello everyone...

Top
#1397765 - 19/12/2016 22:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
You're not wrong cori. I reckon this thing will crank up much faster than what bom says. Huge explosive storms in the area just now. Bring it on.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1397769 - 19/12/2016 22:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Popeye]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
woohooo

Top
#1397778 - 20/12/2016 07:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1874
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
So nice to see something trying to happen ..
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

Top
#1397782 - 20/12/2016 09:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Karratha, WA
So the low 500ish kms NNW of Karratha is on track for its Saturday debut to 80mile as a cat 1 in the 0600 SSU update ... will the Timor Sea low come and join in on the action hmmmm

Top
#1398811 - 26/12/2016 22:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Ec showing that GOC low drifting across the top end and in to WA. Cmon let's have a big Ridge build in and send it the whole way West.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1398845 - 27/12/2016 10:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
How amazing is the rainfall from that LOW that originated up in the Territory, down through the Inland Kimberley, scraping the Pilbara, right down through inland WA, Across NT and onto SA in the coming days. Summer rainfall at its best. The NW delivers big time.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1398908 - 27/12/2016 18:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Latest EC cranks a monster. Pushing off the West Kimberley and paralleling the Pilbara. Looks like it is going to be a busy season. I think its time one really got going. This could be it.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1399455 - 30/12/2016 10:37 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
What are peoples thoughts? Latest EC has the LOW that has spun up in NT pushing offshore and steaming West well out around Exmouth and off to Sea. Big solid ridge in place. Just hope things change and it weakens out for a recurve. Hope it gives us a few days of solid weather as it drifts past.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1399543 - 30/12/2016 20:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Little snippet from the Western Daily TC outlook. Might be game on for a TC this week in the Nwest.

'In the longer term, a weak low currently over the central Northern Territory is expected to move north over the weekend. It may then track west over the northern Kimberley or adjacent waters next week. If it moves over water then there is potential for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1399550 - 30/12/2016 20:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
Hi Popeye,
News just on 7 said potential for monsoon activity to increase around North Qld with heavy local falls, and the formation of a tropical low in NT, leading to potential cyclone that may eventually head West.
Looks like a decent start at least to something bigger than what you just had.

Top
Page 4 of 23 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 22 23 >


Who's Online
12 registered (ScubaSteve, Sidney, Markus, Andrew-A, eauetsoleil, Jimi, ThD Ht, Marts, Foehn Correspondent, Dr Philosophy, 2 invisible), 91 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Chris #3, Cloudwatcher, dave-tsv, GuyH, Joshg, Prettybub, s016230, Sprouts
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24005 Topics
1503018 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image