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#1440838 - 08/11/2017 22:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 66
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I agree with early days yet
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1440851 - 08/11/2017 23:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10204
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
No complaints here for the season so far. Not surprised to see we're about to enter a more stable weather period, as it's been unstable on a fairly regular basis since the beginning of October and through into this first week of November. Though I would like to see unstable weather return again by late November (more than a fortnight of stable weather at this time of year would be annoying).

Comparison of thunderstorm hits & thunderdays here over the period from July 1st to November 8th during each year:
Jul 1st to Nov 8th 2017, 12 thunderstorm hits / 16 thunderdays
Jul 1st to Nov 8th 2016, 12 thunderstorm hits / 12 thunderdays
Jul 1st to Nov 8th 2015, 15 thunderstorm hits / 21 thunderdays
Jul 1st to Nov 8th 2014, 11 thunderstorm hits / 13 thunderdays
Jul 1st to Nov 8th 2013, 3 thunderstorm hits / 8 thunderdays (the legendary November 2013 Storm Outbreak started on November 9th)
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 90.2mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 17 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1458.0mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 145 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1440906 - 10/11/2017 00:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
In case anyone else was going to ask, those striped patterns on radars between Brisbane and the NSW central coast tonight is a typical radar signature of chaff (small lightweight metallic strips released by military aircraft designed to confuse enemy radar & radar-guided missiles - but they're also released during some peacetime training exercises and can be carried over long distances by winds).
It just looks like there's a lot more of it than there really is because they're designed to reflect so much of the radar's energy back.
It originated in offshore airspace east of the Williamtown air force base this afternoon and were carried up here by the winds aloft.

There's currently a major exercise taking place for much of this month involving large chunks of airspace near Williamtown and Amberley (and in between) with our Air Force, Navy and the US Air Force.

There's also some genuine rainfall in the form of hit and miss showers near the coast as well.

Radar/satellite image via Weatherzone:



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#1440915 - 10/11/2017 08:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4329
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.6mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct217.4(93),Nov62.0,YTD981.4(1043.4)

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#1440927 - 10/11/2017 10:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6623
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
These have to be the strongest SE winds I can remember for quite some time. Not sure what to make of it tbh.

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#1440929 - 10/11/2017 10:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2758
Loc: Buderim
Its Autumn and winter is on the way. lol.

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#1440931 - 10/11/2017 11:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Last EC run looking very wet towards the end of the run for NE NSW SE QLD - total accumulated rain to 240:



Only one run but looking potentially more unsettled in the middle term... suspect the rain totals will likely change a heap over the next week, but after this coming week of just the odd shower it's nice to have something to watch smile

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#1440933 - 10/11/2017 12:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 401
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Yeah, EC is playing around with a upper cold pool in the last few runs. This mornings run had this upper pool through further west around the inland areas of N NSW and S QLD.
_________________________
Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1440936 - 10/11/2017 12:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 183
Loc: Golden Beach
If it is progged that far south at this early stage it is likely to be more relevant to Melbourne's weather than anywhere around the SEQ area. Always seem to eventuate further south than forecasts for some reason. Melbourne may be slight exag! haha

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#1440945 - 10/11/2017 20:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Freezing and wet today, more like winter than late spring and there's a few more days left to go.

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#1440955 - 10/11/2017 23:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 339
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Freezing and wet today, more like winter than late spring and there's a few more days left to go.
only had 0.7mm here at Salisbury today, and that fell this morning around 8.30 a.m in one quick shower....walked out of Sleeman Sports Complex about a half hour ago and the wife did mention how cool it felt though.

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#1440962 - 11/11/2017 08:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4329
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.4mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct217.4(93),Nov62.0,YTD981.4(1043.4)

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#1440963 - 11/11/2017 08:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4329
Loc: Wynnum
One third through the month and quite cool and dry locally. 5.4mm and a temp anomaly of minus 1.25C.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct217.4(93),Nov62.0,YTD981.4(1043.4)

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#1440977 - 11/11/2017 12:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Latest multi-model ensemble rainfall suggestion for between 6 and 14 days from now (some progs also have instability increasing from around a week's time but lots of uncertainty):



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#1440979 - 11/11/2017 12:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Good to see Ken, EC has gone off the boil this morning but I'd be surprised to see absolute consistency this far out. Looks like there are good chances of a significant inland upper trough but no consensus yet as to how the lower levels will respond (ie will it be enough to knock over the quidge and give us a strong onshore flow).
GFS 18Z run looking like lots of fun, and great to see that output above Ken, now waiting game for a few days to see if it will come together (though with you posting about it I'd take it as almost a given wink )

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#1440981 - 11/11/2017 13:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1663
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Happy Birthday Retired Weather Man. Hope you have a great day.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1440982 - 11/11/2017 13:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
IkeTheSpike Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/02/2011
Posts: 38
Loc: Brisbane
A question for you guys - does anyone who lives in Brisbane find it odd that BOM recorded 10.8 hours of sun for yesterday?

From my own observations, it was almost completely overcast!

Or is it just that less dense cloud constitutes sunshine?

Sorry if I am changing the thread topic, but have noticed this on plenty of occasions (I track sun metrics) where cloudy days have been recorded as abundant sunshine.

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#1440992 - 11/11/2017 17:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: KevD]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6623
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: KevD
Good to see Ken, EC has gone off the boil this morning but I'd be surprised to see absolute consistency this far out. Looks like there are good chances of a significant inland upper trough but no consensus yet as to how the lower levels will respond (ie will it be enough to knock over the quidge and give us a strong onshore flow).
GFS 18Z run looking like lots of fun, and great to see that output above Ken, now waiting game for a few days to see if it will come together (though with you posting about it I'd take it as almost a given wink )


Plenty of cold pools popping up all over the shop - a weather model's worst nightmare alongside cyclone prediction.

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#1440995 - 11/11/2017 18:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2931
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea most of the good storm potential looks to be a fair way inland through the central QLD districts might be Roma and surrounding areas to keep an eye later next week. Will have to wait and see what this thing does out in the Tasman..

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#1440997 - 11/11/2017 18:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: ozone doug]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4329
Loc: Wynnum
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Happy Birthday Retired Weather Man. Hope you have a great day.


Thanks Ozone Doug.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct217.4(93),Nov62.0,YTD981.4(1043.4)

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