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#1445542 - 22/12/2017 12:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1097
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
ken , with a positively tilted trough , is it typically still developing in strength? conversely , a negative tilt , dying in the ar$e , so to speak? or is that an old wives tale?

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#1445543 - 22/12/2017 12:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5242
Yeah pretty much, a positively tilted system is typically in the process of "arc'ing" up towards an area downstream of it because it's often entering longwave troughing while the opposite is true for a negatively tilted system. But negatively tilted shortwave troughs can often produce severe weather ahead of them due to the divergent upper flow and enhanced upmotion ahead of them.

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#1445545 - 22/12/2017 12:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1097
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
thanks , appreciate it.

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#1445549 - 22/12/2017 13:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 598
Loc: Bardon 4065
Looks like a few cells starting to kick off SW of Boonah. Look to be lightning active already.


Edited by Foehn Correspondent (22/12/2017 13:45)
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#1445559 - 22/12/2017 15:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 569
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Due to ongoing activity in the Day-to-Day thread : Have thought to start a seperate thread for the end of 2017 cool

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1445558#Post1445558

Kind Rgrds all ,,,
_________________________
Weather or not ?

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#1445561 - 22/12/2017 15:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 746
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Nothing but murk and crud down this way, worst storm season

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#1445578 - 22/12/2017 22:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 992
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Signalman, you scored a nice juicy one last night. All in all, we had 10.8mm from last nights fall and and some rain after midnight. Too bad we missed out on today. At least the chances remain for the next few days at least. Oh yes, the nights are certainly more comfortable.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1446050 - 27/12/2017 17:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2109
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Big cyclone coming guys! Nostradamus (aka Brisbane Weather) predicted it!

Prediction are just that you predicted something that will happen in the future. Some people donít do well while others seem to have the gift or knack

I made predictions in the past with Oswaldís path 2 weeks before it formed

I made other predictions as well like USA hurricane season , this years storm season as well as I predicted one of my admins would get hit hard by event and it happened. The list goes on

Now I am not here as click bait or to scare people and I am not here for the fame or any fortune to be honest I donít need the money

I am here for 1 reason and thatís YOU

I do Bw to try and keep the community aware and safe from what Mother Nature throws at us well I try my best and I am not 100% correct

Now on with this prediction and remember a prediction is a prediction itís not a indication it will happen but with my past history I am concerned

Up until the 1960 some years seq would sometimes get more cyclones then North Queensland and some years south east Queensland got 3-4 cyclone crossings in 1 year

Once about the 1960s hit this stopped and cyclones became a myth for seq apart from a few close coastal passes and cyclone Wanda which the bureau canít confirm weather she was a cyclone or a low before it crossed the coast in 1974

People move on and when natural disasters donít happen people become non compliant and think it wonít happen again. And more houses get built and drainage system gets changed as well

So any way like I said before this is not locked in or am I trying to scare anyone

My next prediction is a strong cyclone will cross near rainbow beach the eye will and this will impact the Sunshine Coast severely bring massive floods and damage as well as life loss

Brisbane and Gold Coast will get
Damage and huge floods but the damage wonít be as bad as Sunshine Coast

Maroochydore plaza will be about 2 metres of water under and the bridge at Bli Bli will see huge waves crash over it

Now I hope this prediction is wrong

Remember this is not locked in or guaranteed it will happen but we need to be careful of my history in predictions

To me this should happen during 2018 if not 2019 but I believe more likely 2018 but we will have to wait and see

If I am wrong I will take it on the chin lol

Dave

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#1446051 - 27/12/2017 17:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2315
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I suspect he takes something 'on the chin' other than his predictions...

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#1446065 - 27/12/2017 18:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5194
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
If you're waiting for 00z EC forecast: "00z EURO may take a bit to come in:
"Due to power problems affecting our supercomputer, the dissemination of ECMWF wave products for the 00Z cycle of the "high-resolution forecast" will be delayed.""

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#1446075 - 27/12/2017 19:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Nature's Fury]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 481
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Big cyclone coming guys! Nostradamus (aka Brisbane Weather) predicted it!

Prediction are just that you predicted something that will happen in the future. Some people donít do well while others seem to have the gift or knack

I made predictions in the past with Oswaldís path 2 weeks before it formed

I made other predictions as well like USA hurricane season , this years storm season as well as I predicted one of my admins would get hit hard by event and it happened. The list goes on

Now I am not here as click bait or to scare people and I am not here for the fame or any fortune to be honest I donít need the money

I am here for 1 reason and thatís YOU

I do Bw to try and keep the community aware and safe from what Mother Nature throws at us well I try my best and I am not 100% correct

Now on with this prediction and remember a prediction is a prediction itís not a indication it will happen but with my past history I am concerned

Up until the 1960 some years seq would sometimes get more cyclones then North Queensland and some years south east Queensland got 3-4 cyclone crossings in 1 year

Once about the 1960s hit this stopped and cyclones became a myth for seq apart from a few close coastal passes and cyclone Wanda which the bureau canít confirm weather she was a cyclone or a low before it crossed the coast in 1974

People move on and when natural disasters donít happen people become non compliant and think it wonít happen again. And more houses get built and drainage system gets changed as well

So any way like I said before this is not locked in or am I trying to scare anyone

My next prediction is a strong cyclone will cross near rainbow beach the eye will and this will impact the Sunshine Coast severely bring massive floods and damage as well as life loss

Brisbane and Gold Coast will get
Damage and huge floods but the damage wonít be as bad as Sunshine Coast

Maroochydore plaza will be about 2 metres of water under and the bridge at Bli Bli will see huge waves crash over it

Now I hope this prediction is wrong

Remember this is not locked in or guaranteed it will happen but we need to be careful of my history in predictions

To me this should happen during 2018 if not 2019 but I believe more likely 2018 but we will have to wait and see

If I am wrong I will take it on the chin lol

Dave





Predicting is worth not much if the basis is one person rather than a broader combined opinion
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1446225 - 29/12/2017 07:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Kino]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2851
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: Kino
I suspect he takes something 'on the chin' other than his predictions...


😂😂😂😂 you win the internet with that comment sir.
But seriously this bloke has people actually believing his dribble. Him n I had words nearly 12 months ago when I called him out on a few things. And as you do when you get butt hurt he blocked me 😂😂.
Between him and Hollywood, there's gunna be a lot of paranoid people getting around .
_________________________
I hate winter

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#1446234 - 29/12/2017 10:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1202
Loc: Toowoomba
Maybe you should all take a look at QLD cyclone history like the 1954 cyclone and cyclone Dinah 1967. I do not know who that person is. He did make an error(I think) in that the much quieter cyclone period began after 1974. That scenario is possible but very very very unlikely. The whole broadscale weather pattern is so hostile now for such possibilities. I am not really concerned anymore.
Cheers

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#1446236 - 29/12/2017 10:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1202
Loc: Toowoomba
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/eastern.shtml. A considerably short history from the Bureau

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#1446237 - 29/12/2017 10:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5242
A lot of non-TCís such as ECLís were also called cyclones (not just in the context of the broader meteorological term for lows) in the papers in the old days as well.

TCís are far more common in northern and central QLD though and thatís always been the case.


Edited by Ken Kato (29/12/2017 10:56)
Edit Reason: Added stuff

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#1446240 - 29/12/2017 11:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1800
Loc: Kingaroy
The La Nina event of 1949 to 1951 made itself known when a tropical cyclone came down from up north. It will probably be quiet up to about late January and February and then we will cop it.

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#1446636 - 01/01/2018 15:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Sandstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2003
Posts: 303
Loc: Highvale
1250mm for 2017 at Highvale
_________________________
The mind is everything. What you think you become.


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#1446762 - 01/01/2018 22:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1195
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
715mm total for 2017 in Kingaroy. Worked out over 80% of that fell in 4 months: January, March, October and December. Rest of the year was pretty much bone dry. Bit of excitement with plenty of extreme temps (mainly warm ones), a few severe storms and even a cyclone (ex TC technically). Definitely not the best year for rainfall though.

Hope everyone had a fantastic new year and heres hoping for a wet 2018!
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 364mm ytd

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#1446778 - 02/01/2018 09:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 307
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
735.8mm total for Regency Downs. That's just shy of the annual average for Gatton UQ (the closest BOM site), but around 5%.

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#1446780 - 02/01/2018 09:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18422
Loc: Burnett Heads
1507mm at home near Bundaberg.
_________________________
"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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