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#1401063 - 07/01/2017 22:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mamma Tus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/12/2011
Posts: 331
Loc: Borderlands NSW
Hello Ken and thanks for the 'Wish You Were Here' postcard wink
What magnificent scenery, just so memorable and I'm only looking at the photos! We do look forward to your return...but in the meantime Enjoy:)

Meanwhile back in the Land of Oz, very happy with several rain days and full tanks. This has really reduced the fire danger which was getting quite a worry with the land becoming so moisture deprived and dried out.
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#1401125 - 08/01/2017 15:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mamma Tus]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1779
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
EC has some insane falls coming off a southerly change next Sunday. 100+ mm for Brisbane in the evening. While GFS has the change in the morning, CAPE is massive and dewpoints are sitting around 24 across SEQ. Looks like a possible repeat of the January 2 torrential downpour off the southerly change.

Not to forget Thursday has storm potential from a southerly change too although it's more complicated.

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#1401133 - 08/01/2017 17:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mamma Tus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/12/2011
Posts: 331
Loc: Borderlands NSW
Liking the sound of that NF:)
Here it is now 25.3C and 53% RH.
Few lower level clouds around, no wind.
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#1401134 - 08/01/2017 17:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6459
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
It's hard to get excited about any of these fronts when all season they've failed to deliver unless you live in Brisbane or on the Gold Coast. We should be seeing more onshore rain events at this time of year but next to zero chance of that anytime soon with the way the highs keep swinging north.

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#1401164 - 08/01/2017 21:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 808
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
South of Caboolture ... weekly threads, rain flash bang!
North of Caboolture ... boring weather script

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#1401166 - 08/01/2017 22:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1091
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Mowed the lawn today for the first time since October! That being said the grass is already browning off a bit and will be back to dead in a week or two without another decent drop of rain.

This pattern were stuck in reminds me of previous dry summers like 2013/14 and 2012/13 pre Oswald. A week of hot dry conditions ending with a few days of hit and miss storms, a s'ely change preceding a week of easterlies with showers on the coast and mild, dry days inland. Then the heat builds again and the cycle repeats as it has been doing since November. The March 2014 rain event and cyclone oswald both brought and end to the last two dry summers, so surely there will be a big rain event at some stage over the next couple of months...
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2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 378mm ytd

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#1401201 - 09/01/2017 09:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
The signs in nature are there for a big wet, ants are moving to high ground even snakes are moving to high ground as well.
Animals are far more in tune with nature than humans. The Coral Sea ridging is acting like a pressure cooker, all that sunlight is warming up the water and eventually it will pop.

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#1401212 - 09/01/2017 12:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mega]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4295
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Mega
It's hard to get excited about any of these fronts when all season they've failed to deliver unless you live in Brisbane or on the Gold Coast. We should be seeing more onshore rain events at this time of year but next to zero chance of that anytime soon with the way the highs keep swinging north.


Long term data would tend to suggest onshore rain events are less frequent than you might think.

I saw a paper several years ago that measured the frequency of major rainfall events over our dam catchment areas in the 20th century.

The average is a significant inflow event every 3 years but there were 3 periods in excess of a decade in the 20th century without a major inflow event with the longest being 12 years. (God knows what the actual outlier might be).

When the same thing happens this century our, major dams are likely to come close to running dry. We got close in the first decade of this century when we went 7 years without an event and Wivenhoe dam got down to less than 20% FSL.

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#1401251 - 09/01/2017 16:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6459
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I never said it had to be anything major though. Just some god damn rain that isn't leftover crap from those fronts or useless stream showers from the SE. A good old fashioned rain event so the grass isn't dead again after a week.

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#1401263 - 09/01/2017 17:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4295
Loc: Brisbane
No worries Mega. I sense a hint of frustration - have you considered a rain dance?

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#1401275 - 09/01/2017 19:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2887
Loc: Yatala, Gold Coast QLD
I've started painting the outside of the house its not quite half done..only got weekends now to do it. So I've got the ball rolling for us. smile

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#1401277 - 09/01/2017 19:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Locke]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1779
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Locke
Originally Posted By: Mega
It's hard to get excited about any of these fronts when all season they've failed to deliver unless you live in Brisbane or on the Gold Coast. We should be seeing more onshore rain events at this time of year but next to zero chance of that anytime soon with the way the highs keep swinging north.


Long term data would tend to suggest onshore rain events are less frequent than you might think.

I saw a paper several years ago that measured the frequency of major rainfall events over our dam catchment areas in the 20th century.

The average is a significant inflow event every 3 years but there were 3 periods in excess of a decade in the 20th century without a major inflow event with the longest being 12 years. (God knows what the actual outlier might be).

When the same thing happens this century our, major dams are likely to come close to running dry. We got close in the first decade of this century when we went 7 years without an event and Wivenhoe dam got down to less than 20% FSL.


That's really interesting. And then of course you can have incredible years like 2010-2011 where there were 3+ major inflow events in one season.

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#1401289 - 09/01/2017 20:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
rainiac Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 573
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
WZ going for a max heat index of 42 on Saturday. Phew!

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#1401299 - 09/01/2017 21:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: rainiac]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17724
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: rainiac
WZ going for a max heat index of 42 on Saturday. Phew!


In February 2015 in Cairns I recorded a heat index 53.6 degs and 53.8 degs on two consecutive days .By far the hottest two days I have experienced in all my days on earth. The apparent was 47.8 degs and 48 degs respectively. On the second day I watched a bird fall from the sky and land next to my car when I was fuelling up.
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#1401305 - 10/01/2017 06:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: ColdFront]
rainiac Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 573
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: rainiac
WZ going for a max heat index of 42 on Saturday. Phew!


In February 2015 in Cairns I recorded a heat index 53.6 degs and 53.8 degs on two consecutive days .By far the hottest two days I have experienced in all my days on earth. The apparent was 47.8 degs and 48 degs respectively. On the second day I watched a bird fall from the sky and land next to my car when I was fuelling up.

That's insane CF, that would have been horrible. Lucky this region doesn't get like that.

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#1401319 - 10/01/2017 08:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1615
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
We have that with bats .Few days over 41/42 and they are dropping dead out of the trees.Bats can't handle the heat.
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#1401356 - 10/01/2017 12:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4295
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
In February 2015 in Cairns I recorded a heat index 53.6 degs and 53.8 degs on two consecutive days .By far the hottest two days I have experienced in all my days on earth. The apparent was 47.8 degs and 48 degs respectively. On the second day I watched a bird fall from the sky and land next to my car when I was fuelling up.


I guess its the humidity that is the killer. I would think your talking around 22nd Feb 2015?? where it would have been around 36C actual temp and 100% humidity on those days.

I experienced 42C temps on a number of occasions but only on days where the air was very dry.

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#1401366 - 10/01/2017 13:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 936
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
i was out in the bowen basin and in emerald the day they set a record of 47c. coal mine site up the rd that arvo with the black dust , was worse, eyes wouldnt stop watering.b 20 yrs ago now, probly been surpassed by now i guess. Its silly heat, just no good. only whiskey and air con can make it bearable in the short term.

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#1401369 - 10/01/2017 13:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6276
Loc: Central Qld.
I doubt it could be 36 deg and 100 pc humidity.
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#1401375 - 10/01/2017 14:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Vinnie]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1779
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
What about those days early last year when it was mid-30s with almost max humidity. Apparent temps in low 40s. Those were the days when CAPE was hitting 4000+.

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