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#1399754 - 01/01/2017 11:55 VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Well my last Thread delivered some great rainfall totals and storms so lets hope I can help the weather delivery again.

After a mild start to the week, things will start warming up from around Wednesday, when Mildura will reach 35C and Melbourne 29C. This heat will continue into the weekend, when temperatures may hit the low 40's in Mildura and Mid 30s in Melbourne and the south.



An easterly dip which looks to mostly stay in NSW may cause isolated storms across the state late in the week. These storms don't appear to support heavy rainfall totals at this stage.

This is what GFS expects of the period.


Best chance of storms appears to be Thursday accross the Southern half of the state






Beyond the weekend things get a little less certain with the impact of of another tropical system in the Countries NW.

Happy New Year Everyone and may 2017 provide some exciting, widespread storms!


Edited by logansi (01/01/2017 12:00)
_________________________
Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1399780 - 01/01/2017 14:32 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Happy New Year Logansi, and to the rest of you down on the Southwest Coast! smile

Looks promising, and timed perfectly for the start of my family holiday to Corryong, Northeast Victoria... and then onto Merimbula on the NSW South Coast! grin

A bit difficult to decipher the models, but definitely hints that a heatwave is about to unfold, along with an easterly dip which should hopefully spark off showers and thunderstorms across parts of Victoria. smile

I'll be following it closely as my fiancee, parents and I prepare to hit the road for Northern Victoria and Southern NSW/ACT.

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#1399817 - 01/01/2017 18:18 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Out of what has been a flat cloudy mild day, a moderate shower from the NW in past few minutes. Guessing there is more activity above the low-level muck we've been under.

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#1399818 - 01/01/2017 18:19 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1524
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Some thunder, rain and CG to our west 1/4hr ago. Stormy cells rolling down our way from the N/W.

Max. seen today was 22C grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-12mm. June-11mm to 0900 24th.

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#1399859 - 01/01/2017 22:04 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Saturday is starting to look like a very hot one, with low 40's in the North and high 30's in the South, not much wind at this time so FDI's shouldn't be too high.

Long range models don't mean much but looking quite hot in the north high through to the middle of JAN
_________________________
Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

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#1400293 - 03/01/2017 10:48 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mild overcast start to the day here, no drizzle like previous mornings.

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#1400311 - 03/01/2017 12:03 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 13.1C, currently around 20C and becoming increasingly sunny! smile

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#1400316 - 03/01/2017 12:41 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2190
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Happy New Year 2017...

Lovely cool nights and warm days of 26c at 12.30pm.


Interesting see trough along Victoria divide ranges by Thursday as warm to hot in North and Cool breeze in South.

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#1400367 - 03/01/2017 18:36 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Had a sunny easterly afternoon here, got to 28C mid arvo.

Only "weather out there" I can see is the onset of a bit of easterly drizzle Wed night/Thursday morning out our way before warming up again Thursday arvo.

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#1400421 - 03/01/2017 23:51 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey guys! Reporting from Corryong, Northeast Victoria. My story for today. smile

My fiancee, parents and I left home in Belgrave around 1pm, and arrived here sometime around 10:30pm.

We stopped for lunch in Monbulk around 1:30pm, followed by a chance to refuel the car and grab snacks in Lilydale about half an hour later.

Exiting the Melbourne metropolitan area, we drove up to Yarra Glen for another quick break at about 2:30pm. Then it was north along the Melba Highway to Yea, and northwest along the Goulburn Valley Highway to Seymour for our next break at approximately 4pm.

At 4:20pm, we hit the M31 Hume Freeway (Melbourne-Sydney) and arrived at the Lake Mokoan Rest Area in Winton, near Benalla, at about 5:30pm. After about aother hour we reached the Border (Albury/Wodonga) for dinner, fuel and shopping. At 9pm, it was eastwards along the Murray Valley Highway, arriving in the Upper Murray around 1.5 hours later.

Weatherwise, temperatures felt much more summery compared to yesterday. There was an abundance of sunshine, with maximums in Melbourne's east, Dandenong Ranges and Yarra Valley in the high-teens and low-20s. North of the Great Dividing Range, highs were in the mid/high-20s up until Seymour. Across the Northern Plains and over the Murray River into Southern NSW/ACT, particularly in Wangaratta, Albury/Wodonga, and Corryong, temperatures soared to around 32C, but only topped around 26C in the Koetong/Shelley area (it was only around 18C when we passed through this region around 10pm).

Winds were generally very light, although they were gusty in the Glenburn/Murrindindi area of the Yea River Valley.

A lot of bushfire/grassfire smoke haze over towards Dookie and Shepparton while we were in Benalla.

High cloud began arriving from the northwest after about 5:30pm.

Finally, a gorgeous sunset at 8:30pm in Albury/Wodonga! smile

The highest temperature observed on my weather station at my home in Belgrave before I switched it off and left was 21.7C.

Currently around 22C here in Corryong. A mostly clear night with a cooling breeze! smile

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#1400517 - 04/01/2017 18:26 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Beautiful day here, sunny 30C, with light persistent SE'ly breeze.

Was hoping for late arvo drizzle from NE - didnt happen. Baro steady on 1016 hPa here.

.....any sort of rain in these parts would be good! (....echo'ing all other Vic's).

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#1400561 - 04/01/2017 22:26 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for today from here in Corryong... smile

No observations available for the local weather station, but across the Murray River at Khancoban it was a low of 14.5C followed by a high of 31.4C.

Can't confirm if we had fog this morning. Otherwise it was a hot, humid and mostly sunny day, with the muggy heat offset by a cooling breeze at times, especially this evening.

Cloud increased towards evening, and while it did look unstable, convective, dark and stormy, we only got a few sporadic light showers. Plus a brief rainbow, and a magnificent sunset! smile

Currently around 23C.

Tomorrow's forecast looks interesting! 13C to 32C, sunny morning then afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with possible hail! smile

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#1400569 - 04/01/2017 23:55 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4990
Loc: Dural
Love your reports ASF. Love reading them.

I'm particularly happy that you didn't tell us for the 1000'th time that Corryong is in NE Victoria. We all know where it is.

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#1400587 - 05/01/2017 08:10 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6075
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
WOW, 620 this morning, in the car and off to my WSW is the best looking thermonuclear stand alone cumulo nimbus I think I have seen in VIC. Unfortunately for you all my phone is a dinosaur and so no snap.

That cloud is now the complex on the edge of Melbourne radar. REal unstable sky in other parts. With storms likely to head NE in direction Melbourne might miss unless seabreeze stays away. Will wait for the whinging if that occurs...
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1400591 - 05/01/2017 08:54 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV65756
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of the Central, South West, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:06 am Thursday, 5 January 2017.

Slow moving severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Bendigo, Maryborough, Castlemaine, Kyneton and Ballarat.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* If you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* Listen to the radio for storm updates
* Switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:10 am.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1400601 - 05/01/2017 09:25 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Lol cheers Homer! Sorry if I've overused the "Northeast Victoria" part, but it's not required anymore. smile

Dipped to 16.2C this morning out at Khancoban. Currently around 22C with partly cloudy, unstable skies over the Upper Murray. Still going for 32C here in Corryong with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, possibly with hail. smile

Edit: forgot to mention that the Yarrawonga radar is out of action. Bummer! frown mad


Edited by aussiestormfreak (05/01/2017 09:28)

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#1400603 - 05/01/2017 09:28 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
It is sunny ☀️ in the inner northeast suburbs of Metro Melbourne
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1400614 - 05/01/2017 10:31 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Still sunny ☀️
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1400624 - 05/01/2017 11:37 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2190
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks to trough rubbish uppers keep sun out, cooler and interesting as i thought storms go SW direction as i was wrong going NE direction just missed my East way.

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#1400632 - 05/01/2017 12:15 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like the Easterly Dip has delivered for Vic today! - under 7/8 sun here most of the morning, hot n muggy, and waiting for our turn for a storm!

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