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#1399754 - 01/01/2017 11:55 VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Well my last Thread delivered some great rainfall totals and storms so lets hope I can help the weather delivery again.

After a mild start to the week, things will start warming up from around Wednesday, when Mildura will reach 35C and Melbourne 29C. This heat will continue into the weekend, when temperatures may hit the low 40's in Mildura and Mid 30s in Melbourne and the south.



An easterly dip which looks to mostly stay in NSW may cause isolated storms across the state late in the week. These storms don't appear to support heavy rainfall totals at this stage.

This is what GFS expects of the period.


Best chance of storms appears to be Thursday accross the Southern half of the state






Beyond the weekend things get a little less certain with the impact of of another tropical system in the Countries NW.

Happy New Year Everyone and may 2017 provide some exciting, widespread storms!


Edited by logansi (01/01/2017 12:00)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1399780 - 01/01/2017 14:32 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Happy New Year Logansi, and to the rest of you down on the Southwest Coast! smile

Looks promising, and timed perfectly for the start of my family holiday to Corryong, Northeast Victoria... and then onto Merimbula on the NSW South Coast! grin

A bit difficult to decipher the models, but definitely hints that a heatwave is about to unfold, along with an easterly dip which should hopefully spark off showers and thunderstorms across parts of Victoria. smile

I'll be following it closely as my fiancee, parents and I prepare to hit the road for Northern Victoria and Southern NSW/ACT.

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#1399817 - 01/01/2017 18:18 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 552
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Out of what has been a flat cloudy mild day, a moderate shower from the NW in past few minutes. Guessing there is more activity above the low-level muck we've been under.

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#1399818 - 01/01/2017 18:19 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1666
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Some thunder, rain and CG to our west 1/4hr ago. Stormy cells rolling down our way from the N/W.

Max. seen today was 22C grin
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 13.5mm to 0900 16th.

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#1399859 - 01/01/2017 22:04 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Saturday is starting to look like a very hot one, with low 40's in the North and high 30's in the South, not much wind at this time so FDI's shouldn't be too high.

Long range models don't mean much but looking quite hot in the north high through to the middle of JAN
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1400293 - 03/01/2017 10:48 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6460
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mild overcast start to the day here, no drizzle like previous mornings.

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#1400311 - 03/01/2017 12:03 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 13.1C, currently around 20C and becoming increasingly sunny! smile

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#1400316 - 03/01/2017 12:41 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Happy New Year 2017...

Lovely cool nights and warm days of 26c at 12.30pm.


Interesting see trough along Victoria divide ranges by Thursday as warm to hot in North and Cool breeze in South.

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#1400367 - 03/01/2017 18:36 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6460
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Had a sunny easterly afternoon here, got to 28C mid arvo.

Only "weather out there" I can see is the onset of a bit of easterly drizzle Wed night/Thursday morning out our way before warming up again Thursday arvo.

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#1400421 - 03/01/2017 23:51 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey guys! Reporting from Corryong, Northeast Victoria. My story for today. smile

My fiancee, parents and I left home in Belgrave around 1pm, and arrived here sometime around 10:30pm.

We stopped for lunch in Monbulk around 1:30pm, followed by a chance to refuel the car and grab snacks in Lilydale about half an hour later.

Exiting the Melbourne metropolitan area, we drove up to Yarra Glen for another quick break at about 2:30pm. Then it was north along the Melba Highway to Yea, and northwest along the Goulburn Valley Highway to Seymour for our next break at approximately 4pm.

At 4:20pm, we hit the M31 Hume Freeway (Melbourne-Sydney) and arrived at the Lake Mokoan Rest Area in Winton, near Benalla, at about 5:30pm. After about aother hour we reached the Border (Albury/Wodonga) for dinner, fuel and shopping. At 9pm, it was eastwards along the Murray Valley Highway, arriving in the Upper Murray around 1.5 hours later.

Weatherwise, temperatures felt much more summery compared to yesterday. There was an abundance of sunshine, with maximums in Melbourne's east, Dandenong Ranges and Yarra Valley in the high-teens and low-20s. North of the Great Dividing Range, highs were in the mid/high-20s up until Seymour. Across the Northern Plains and over the Murray River into Southern NSW/ACT, particularly in Wangaratta, Albury/Wodonga, and Corryong, temperatures soared to around 32C, but only topped around 26C in the Koetong/Shelley area (it was only around 18C when we passed through this region around 10pm).

Winds were generally very light, although they were gusty in the Glenburn/Murrindindi area of the Yea River Valley.

A lot of bushfire/grassfire smoke haze over towards Dookie and Shepparton while we were in Benalla.

High cloud began arriving from the northwest after about 5:30pm.

Finally, a gorgeous sunset at 8:30pm in Albury/Wodonga! smile

The highest temperature observed on my weather station at my home in Belgrave before I switched it off and left was 21.7C.

Currently around 22C here in Corryong. A mostly clear night with a cooling breeze! smile

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#1400517 - 04/01/2017 18:26 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6460
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Beautiful day here, sunny 30C, with light persistent SE'ly breeze.

Was hoping for late arvo drizzle from NE - didnt happen. Baro steady on 1016 hPa here.

.....any sort of rain in these parts would be good! (....echo'ing all other Vic's).

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#1400561 - 04/01/2017 22:26 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for today from here in Corryong... smile

No observations available for the local weather station, but across the Murray River at Khancoban it was a low of 14.5C followed by a high of 31.4C.

Can't confirm if we had fog this morning. Otherwise it was a hot, humid and mostly sunny day, with the muggy heat offset by a cooling breeze at times, especially this evening.

Cloud increased towards evening, and while it did look unstable, convective, dark and stormy, we only got a few sporadic light showers. Plus a brief rainbow, and a magnificent sunset! smile

Currently around 23C.

Tomorrow's forecast looks interesting! 13C to 32C, sunny morning then afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with possible hail! smile

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#1400569 - 04/01/2017 23:55 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5082
Loc: Dural
Love your reports ASF. Love reading them.

I'm particularly happy that you didn't tell us for the 1000'th time that Corryong is in NE Victoria. We all know where it is.

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#1400587 - 05/01/2017 08:10 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6082
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
WOW, 620 this morning, in the car and off to my WSW is the best looking thermonuclear stand alone cumulo nimbus I think I have seen in VIC. Unfortunately for you all my phone is a dinosaur and so no snap.

That cloud is now the complex on the edge of Melbourne radar. REal unstable sky in other parts. With storms likely to head NE in direction Melbourne might miss unless seabreeze stays away. Will wait for the whinging if that occurs...
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1400591 - 05/01/2017 08:54 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV65756
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of the Central, South West, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:06 am Thursday, 5 January 2017.

Slow moving severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Bendigo, Maryborough, Castlemaine, Kyneton and Ballarat.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* If you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* Listen to the radio for storm updates
* Switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:10 am.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1400601 - 05/01/2017 09:25 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Lol cheers Homer! Sorry if I've overused the "Northeast Victoria" part, but it's not required anymore. smile

Dipped to 16.2C this morning out at Khancoban. Currently around 22C with partly cloudy, unstable skies over the Upper Murray. Still going for 32C here in Corryong with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, possibly with hail. smile

Edit: forgot to mention that the Yarrawonga radar is out of action. Bummer! frown mad


Edited by aussiestormfreak (05/01/2017 09:28)

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#1400603 - 05/01/2017 09:28 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1105
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
It is sunny ☀️ in the inner northeast suburbs of Metro Melbourne
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1400614 - 05/01/2017 10:31 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1105
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Still sunny ☀️
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1400624 - 05/01/2017 11:37 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks to trough rubbish uppers keep sun out, cooler and interesting as i thought storms go SW direction as i was wrong going NE direction just missed my East way.

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#1400632 - 05/01/2017 12:15 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6460
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like the Easterly Dip has delivered for Vic today! - under 7/8 sun here most of the morning, hot n muggy, and waiting for our turn for a storm!

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#1400645 - 05/01/2017 13:11 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 552
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Been watching some strong development to my N-NE (closer-in than what's showing on radar) - beautiful "thermonuclear" as Ruckle would say - but now the top's been ripped off it and the remnants blowing eastward. So, it will be interesting to see if big development is possible today.

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#1400654 - 05/01/2017 13:48 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1105
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Still sunny ☀️😂
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1400661 - 05/01/2017 15:07 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bit sick of BOM Big Head from Melbourne Paper says

SEVERE thunderstorms, scorching heat, flash flooding and hail could sweep across the state today, as the Bureau of Meteorology warns Victorians to be wary of fast-changing weather conditions.

The wind shear in VIC is from SW to NE direction, depends of moist inland Victoria and Humid for Bendigo is only 27%.

Need more moist from North/NE to boost anything.

Looks like along the divide ranges is chance.

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#1400662 - 05/01/2017 15:10 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
So much media attention on the weather today due to last weeks storms. Fair to say now Melbourne Metro is a very very low chance of getting storms this afternoon unless the winds change dramatically.

This looks like it will be another classic scenario where the masses blame BOM for crying wolf again when it stays sunny and hot all day, where really it's probably the media's fault for over hyping it. BOM's regional STW this morning didn't even include Melbourne.

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#1400663 - 05/01/2017 15:20 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: balmz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 552
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Spot on Balmz!

Mr. Jones says, "I saw an icon on the telly and it had lightning ... so how come they're wrong again?"

And Chasers, you're right ..that shear you talk of ... I could (as I posted earlier) see it rip the head off the developing tower in the hills north of me.

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#1400674 - 05/01/2017 15:59 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6082
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
The west of the state starting to pop, might be interesting in central parts later (away from the coast)
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1400681 - 05/01/2017 16:48 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Small cell in my West pop up falling rain but died very quick.

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#1400682 - 05/01/2017 16:58 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1105
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Still sunny in the CBD so the hysteria in the media has passed! The media carried on about Armageddon! That is it until next time! 😬 inner northeastern suburbs won't see anything tonight


Edited by The Fishman (05/01/2017 16:59)
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1400689 - 05/01/2017 17:56 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6082
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Drove on wet road briefly on the way home. The cell that went from near Gisborne to now north of Mt Macedon and weakening was quite a good looker for awhile. Seabreeze has reached us here. DP spiked a little and temp back to 27.9 after a high of 30.4.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1400691 - 05/01/2017 18:05 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6460
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Devastated here this arvo - not from storms - but from watching so much promising convection shoot up across our NW to NE - continued to bubble up impressively most of the arvo, only to do a Port Phillip Bay, and "decay in their own sewerage" in the uppers.

Such a waste of convection was just "CIN-full".

Anyhow it was nice to hear the odd rumble, and perhaps we are not without chance of an evening storm surprise out this way? ...If one was to occur, going by the 300 hPa wind direction, it would need to brew over the Strezlickiis and wander up the Latrobe Valley in an ENE direction???

33.5C here, made for hot working conditions at Royal Maffra - got a report that it went misty/sea fog mid arvo down on the beach at Seaspray!!


Edited by Petros (05/01/2017 18:09)

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#1400713 - 05/01/2017 19:32 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6082
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Pressure creeping up, SSE wind freshening, looks like trough has moved NE ward with upper winds maybe? Anyway some convection to my NE, pretty sunny otherwise. Looks like 615 this morning was the highlight for here.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1400725 - 05/01/2017 20:27 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6460
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A weak storm brewed in LV and crossed us an hour ago, provided a deflating 0.25mm.

Shows over for tonight it seems! - ......and will be another hot night for sleep frown

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#1400825 - 06/01/2017 13:00 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Cumulus clouds poping up everywhere now.

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#1400836 - 06/01/2017 15:00 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6082
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
We have a storm near the seabreeze boundary west of Melton!
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1400840 - 06/01/2017 15:42 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1105
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
I've been watching the clouds bubbling away toward Melton 👍🏻 Must be the edge of the forcefield 😂
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1400869 - 06/01/2017 18:11 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 552
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Spent the day on the eastern shores of Lake Tyers (east Of Lakes Entrance) - whoever is responsible for designing today's weather in this area did a brilliant job - high 20s, low humidity, zero wind, zero cloud (apart from some pretty bubbling cumulus north over the hills)And ... a little sea fog appearing late in the day.

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#1400881 - 06/01/2017 19:20 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6460
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice TB! smile - used to holiday at Lake Tyers for all my childhood.

Blazing sun here today - made working at Royal Maffra tedious again - 31.6C, little breeze for most of the arvo - felt way much hotter.

After a tedious 20.6C minimum last night, we are probably headed for a repeat performance. .....thats why God invented beer.

A hot weekend looming????

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#1400890 - 06/01/2017 20:06 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6082
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
32.8c at home for a high,about 4 drops reported from here prior to my arrival home, was quite wet on the roads around Gisborne and just to its north around 520pm. Cleared up really quick and warming again now after the earlier showers and storms lowered the temp for awhile.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1400895 - 06/01/2017 20:21 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Reached 31c here today. Sitting around 24 with no wind for a lovely evening. Looking at 38C tomorrow, wouldn't be surprised if it is closer to 40C which considering we haven't had anything above 33 this summer is going to be a bit of a shock.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1400901 - 06/01/2017 21:01 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The High Pressure off East Coast "Pacific Ocean" will stall for 6 days to keep Easily Dip in SE Australia rest next week.

As i wish to bring high humidity from NE NSW and QLD but seem weak.

Warm to Hot rest Victoria until Sunday trough.

Dry warm to Hot for North to West Victoria over divide ranges and warm to Cool breeze for SW to East Victoria.

Summer 2015/16 was more of N to NW wind outback heatwave from Little Sandy / Great Victorian Desert WA.

Now heatwave shifted and sit in Simpson Desert NT/SA to Strzeleck Desert NW NSW.

As pattern has changed to Easterly trade wind is helping keep heatwave out far inland to giveaway cool breezes and trough for SE Aust coast.

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#1400943 - 07/01/2017 07:29 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6082
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Most models on 12z run showing thunderstorms developing in the SW of the state this evening or late arvo near the trough that will be on or just east of border at that time.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1400947 - 07/01/2017 08:14 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Approaching 30 already here going to be a hot one.
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1400983 - 07/01/2017 11:12 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
pushing 35-36C here already, very warm 11am temp for us considering the wind chance isn't really due until the earlier hours of tomorrow, normally our hottest days see a mid to late arvo wind change.
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1400988 - 07/01/2017 12:08 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hot of 33c at 12pm and hope rubbish cirrus move over quick as possible to overcast cool down bit.

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#1401008 - 07/01/2017 17:12 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 128
Can't say i've ever seen that in the forecast before.

"Forecast for the rest of Saturday

Summary
An oppressive night.
Chance of any rain: 0%

Melbourne area

An oppressive night. Winds northerly 10 to 20 km/h."

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#1401017 - 07/01/2017 18:04 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6460
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
They should say "sit out and drink beer before bed" instead of "Oppressive Night"!!

....and we are definitely headed for one out this way - after a higher than expected 37C mid arvo before the seabreeze finally arrived.

Going out for tea soon, hope its air conditioned!!

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#1401046 - 07/01/2017 20:36 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
getting a few drops from a cell which has developed going over head, wind ha changed to the WSW but not doing much to the temperature which is still in the low 30's because its so light.
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1401048 - 07/01/2017 20:39 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: smeagols_ghost]
imcer Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/09/2015
Posts: 23
Loc: Belgrave, Victoria
Originally Posted By: smeagols_ghost
Can't say i've ever seen that in the forecast before.

They've definitely used the terminology before. I remember forecasts last summer with similarly overnight warm temperatures being defined as "oppressive".


Edited by imcer (07/01/2017 20:40)

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#1401056 - 07/01/2017 21:37 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 833
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Well that delivered a few drops, 1 strike, a rise in humidity and no temperature drop, rather it didn't happen TBH - still 30C which is very warm for this part of the world for the late evening.


Edited by logansi (07/01/2017 21:40)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1401073 - 07/01/2017 23:53 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: imcer]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 128
Originally Posted By: imcer
Originally Posted By: smeagols_ghost
Can't say i've ever seen that in the forecast before.

They've definitely used the terminology before. I remember forecasts last summer with similarly overnight warm temperatures being defined as "oppressive".


Ah I've only been down here for 6 months, must be a local thing, like humid in the forecast. Never saw either in qld.

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#1401111 - 08/01/2017 12:12 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Still hot rise to 34c clear sunny as clouds moved to North.

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#1401136 - 08/01/2017 18:00 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6082
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hottest day this summer for me by a small margin. Managed to just crack 34. Bit of a build up around early to mid arvo that culminated in some weak showers well east of here that didn't last long. Skies cleared up after that for warm humid arvo but drier air looks to be here shortly.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1401139 - 08/01/2017 18:29 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6460
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I recorded 39.8C here sometime this arvo. Felt every degree of it as I was working transplanting couch out there all arvo.

We got a trace of rain around 8am with a few wannabee showers.

Then a "cold change" around 3:30pm dropped temps to seemed like 28C?? - then go-figure, the SW'ly breeze ceased 30 mins later and its back to 35C here right now. Not happy Jan!!!


Surely we wont be subjected to a 22.9C minimum again tonight!?? - if so, it will be a haggard Petros dragging himself out of bed to start the 2017 work year!!

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#1401206 - 09/01/2017 11:05 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks no more hot night, lovey 22c at 11am overcast with isolated showers and Thunder in my North.

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#1401218 - 09/01/2017 12:49 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 290
Loc: Kyabram
And now rain, and 19C here - rode the m'bike this morning based on yesterdays forecast of 1-5 mm (80% chance) now its saying 5-10 mm 90% chance We've had 7mm already - with rain predicted just as I'm heading home - oh well I'll get wet - not complaining love the rain just a little too slippery on the bike. No Yarrawonga radar right now so difficult to pick a clear patch to get home.

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#1401223 - 09/01/2017 13:32 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lovely heavy rain 2.5mm

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#1401238 - 09/01/2017 15:19 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 552
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
That huge band of rain, stretching from SE South Aust, across nth Vic and then into East Gippsland has slid 10k NE of me for the past hour or so. Quite a few loud rumbles but no visible lightning; 2 or 3 spots of rain. Looking less likely that I'll get any of it.

Note some falls in the Alps: 28mm @ Mt Buller, 34mm at Falls Crk. Some 8s and 9s in the North Central.

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#1401245 - 09/01/2017 16:01 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2225
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Rain had stopped to bring 8.5mm of cool 19c.

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#1401248 - 09/01/2017 16:22 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 552
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Rainfall in the Alps: Buller = 36mm Falls Crk = 40mm and 18mm at Mangalore

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#1401254 - 09/01/2017 16:56 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 948
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wow there great totals for the alps and
Other areas to the north of the divide 😀😀

Wish it would push down to south of the divide
We really needing the rain here now

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#1401256 - 09/01/2017 16:58 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 948
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
No rain expected through west south gippy area now until
Friday night day period 😨

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#1401597 - 11/01/2017 22:41 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey gday gang! Sorry for my absence, as Ive been very busy. But Ive made it to Merimbula down on the NSW South Coast!

Backtracking on my Corryong reports for this previous event, including low and high temperatures, and any recorded rainfall.

Heres my report for Thursday January 5th, which proved to be a fantastic storm day across the Upper Murray! grin

Corryong Airport low: 16.5C; high: 31.7C
Khancoban Airport low: 12.7C; high: 29.1C

My fiance and I left town around 11am and went for a drive over to the Cudgewa Bluff Falls in the Burrowa-Pine Mountain National Park, then over to Tintaldra and along the Murray River to Walwa and Jingellic, and finally ending up in Khancoban. We returned to Corryong around 6pm.

Skies were already ripe with instability as we left town, with convection initially developing towards the south (Lake Dartmouth, Omeo, Mount Hotham and Falls Creek). By midday, storms were firing over the entire Victorian High Country, but towers were exploding high over the mighty NSW Snowy Mountains as well! Temperatures across the Upper Murray were soaring quickly towards 32C with humidity to boot!

During the drive from Jingellic to Khancoban after lunchtime, a MASSIVE multicell thunderstorm had powered up over Mount Kosciuszko and the headwaters of the Murray River, and this storm became my main focus for the next hour or so as it moved northwards! The cumulonimbus was towering to a good 40,000 feet, with the most vigorous updrafts breaching the tropopause, bright-white in the hot summer sun; the base was a dark, boiling, angry mess.

Just after 2pm, my fiance and I reached Khancoban Pondage, but within 10 minutes the storm moved in! Heavy rain and possible hail were being dumped over the Swampy Plain River Valley to the south (it was extremely dark in that direction); thunder could be heard on average once every 15 seconds, and flashes of lightning could be seen. Although it collapsed and died before reaching Khancoban, a dark and ominous gust front with whale-mouths swept overhead, accompanied by a powerful blast of cooling, but howling gale-force winds that lasted about 5-10 minutes, lashing at the trees and making the lake-surface very choppy! The outflow sent all the people at the lake rushing for cover, but then it ended as quickly as it hit.

But the same outflow winds from that storm helped kick off a much more severe thunderstorm just to the west, over Corryong itself! The skies in that direction grew increasingly dark and threatening until the storm finally broke around 3pm. Khancoban only caught the eastern fringes of this cell (spitting rain and fairly gentle cooling winds), but thunder was quite frequent, on average 3-4 times per minute, at times almost overhead in the storms anvil! A few CC and intra-cloud flashes and even a couple of dangerous CG lightning strikes were observed to the west in the storms core.

According to reports from my parents who were back in Corryong at the time, the storm lasted about an hour in town, dumping intense rainfall and bringing frequent, dangerous lightning! And despite the severe thunderstorm warning that was in place at the time, no large hail resulted.

Back in Khancoban, the storm finally ended at 4pm and within 30 minutes the rain stopped and the Sun was back out, although further shower and thunderstorm activity was away in the distance, particularly behind the main Kosciuszko ridge and towards Albury/Wodonga. My fiance and I went for a swim at local pool for over an hour.

At 5:30pm, we drove back to Corryong, arriving by 6pm. On radar, a new cluster of multicell thunderstorms was edging its way slowing north in our direction; several huge cumulonimbus towers could be seen to the south/southwest, with new convection continually going up ahead of them!

From around 6:30pm onwards, the sky to the south became very dark and boiling, contrasting beautifully with the sunlit foreground, while the top of the storms soared high overhead, finishing in one dull-grey anvil that spread off towards the east, with mammatus hanging down; the base of the nearest updrafts just south of town were wind-torn, with a bit of a shelf cloud developing (these updrafts helped kick up a new, fairly weak, separate storm cell that headed northwest towards Cudgewa, Walwa and Jingellic), and rain and hail being dumped in torrents in the distance. By 7pm, booming thunder could be heard in the distance (on average a few times a minute). Ten minutes later lightning was visible in the rapidly gathering darkness, and quickly began ramping up as the storm edged closer; the Sun vanished behind the impending storm around 7:15pm. Most of the lightning was just intracloud flashes, but a couple of CCs and a few potentially dangerous CGs were visible.

The thunderstorms shelfie swept north into Corryong just around 7:30pm, accompanied by cooling, blustery winds, light spitting rain and a wild, turbulent, at times tornadic sky. Alas, the main cell made a right-turn and swung towards Khancoban, weakening as it went along. By 8pm, after spitting out one final flash of lightning and clap of thunder, the storm ran out of steam and died. frown

But as the Sun went down, it caught the dying storm and created a beautiful double rainbow! The sunset itself, complete with anvil residue from other decayed storms to the west and southwest, was also magnificent. By nightfall, the show was over and a pleasant, starry evening followed. smile

While it was admittedly not the best storm day, as I never scored a direct-hit from any of the cells that developed, and steering was poor, it was a great storm day nonetheless. Plenty of instability and amazing convection, some good storm structure, the usual contrast between sunlit foreground and stormy darkness, blustery winds, lightning, and some very welcome heavy rainfall!

Khancoban Airport only scored 0.6mm of rain, as opposed to 10.6mm at the Corryong Airport (and 11mm in my private rain gauge). Only around 1-2mm was predicted for the Upper Murray on Thursday, so it just goes to show how erratic, localised, and intense the storms were.

A pity the Yarrawonga radar was out of action, so I was forced to rely on the Melbourne, Canberra, Wagga Wagga and Bairnsdale radars.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (11/01/2017 22:42)

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#1401598 - 11/01/2017 22:41 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for Friday January 6th...

Corryong Airport low: 13.1C; high: 34.0C; rainfall (24 hours to 9am): 10.6mm
Khancoban Airport low: 12.4C; high: 34.1C; rainfall (24 hours to 9am): 0.6mm

Following a cool night, it was a hot, humid and partly cloudy day, with a nice cooling breeze to offset the intense mid-summer Sun. There was a bit of convection about the Upper Murray and nearby NSW Snowy Mountains, but no thunderstorms, only a few brief afternoon showers around Bombala on the Canberra radar. Otherwise, only other thing of note was a lovely sunset. smile

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#1401599 - 11/01/2017 22:43 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for Saturday January 7th...

Corryong Airport low: 14.2C; high: 34.0C
Khancoban Airport low: 14.9C; high: 33.9C

It was another hot, sticky day following a comfortable night. Sunshine was abundant, although from about lunchtime onwards high cloud began arriving from the west in response to an approaching low pressure trough. A pleasant breeze offset the unsettling heat. There were some juicy convective clouds about, but no showers or thunderstorms developed unfortunately. Only other thing worth mentioning was a beautiful sunset. smile

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#1401601 - 11/01/2017 22:44 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5737
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for Sunday January 8th...

Corryong Airport low: 16.8C; high: 32.3C
Khancoban Airport low: 15.6C; high: 30.5C

I was bracing myself for what was set to be a potential scorcher, with highs likely to top 36C. Fortunately, the passage of the low pressure trough provided enough cloud cover to keep temperatures approximately five degrees cooler than forecast! smile

Still, it was an admittedly sticky day. But in spite of the humidity, the weather was pleasant enough for me and my fiance to take an afternoon drive north across the Murray River to Tumbarumba. Conditions were made a little more comfortable due to a slight breeze, as well as Tumbarumbas higher elevation compared to Corryong and Khancoban.

The tail-end of the trough brought clearing skies in time for sunset, but not before bringing a few light showers around 5pm. I witnessed no thunderstorms, but the trough brought some very unstable conditions, which I took as a promising sign for the following 24 hours (Monday January 9th). smile

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#1401749 - 12/01/2017 18:31 Re: VIC - The Heat Returns, Easily Dip brings storm risk 2/1/17-9/1/17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6460
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great reports ASF smile

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