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#1446294 - 29/12/2017 20:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Permanent drought is different to never seeing rain again. It rained during the millenium drought.

And since that article more years than not have been below average in SE Australia, and it is far from obvious that the long term drought has broken.



Semantics Mike and you know it. And since that article how many El Ninos vs La Nina’s have we had? How many negative SAM’s?

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#1446295 - 29/12/2017 20:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2338
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
That super El Nino a few years back did not result in the worst drought for us. Might have been a different story out west though.

So the opposite is also true, just because there is a La Nina does not mean good rains will fall. It is just an indicator.

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#1446296 - 29/12/2017 20:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7208
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Loving the look of the trade winds on GFS Extended and EC out to 10 days. At least there's no early abortion to La-Nina this year unlike last year's fail.

Subsurface comparison to last year:

http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.201612.gif

http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.201712.gif

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#1446300 - 29/12/2017 22:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Mid Jan on looks very wet considering those trades Mega - straws crossed for all

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#1446304 - 30/12/2017 06:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3294
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Semantics Mike and you know it. And since that article how many El Ninos vs La Nina’s have we had? How many negative SAM’s?


Below average rainfall in SE Australia will continue (true so far) vs It will never rain again (obviously absurd) is not semantics.

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#1446305 - 30/12/2017 06:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8561
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Massive falls across SE Aus from the nation-wide infeed happening at the moment. Inland WA about to get flooded with 100-300mm falls predicted as well. It's all happening right now

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#1446309 - 30/12/2017 09:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18548
Loc: The Beach.
The problem the past few years for places like Brownsville has been blocking highs and consequential ridging up the east coast. Most of the past month has seen this pattern in play where winds have run parallel to the coast and created a trough to its east blocking long fetch easterlies from bringing moisture out of the Pacific. Some of the models think this will end in coming days and already there is a hint of more favourable trades on the surface maps.

A few of us discussed this set up a couple of years back in here.
_________________________
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#1446310 - 30/12/2017 09:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino


Semantics Mike and you know it. And since that article how many El Ninos vs La Nina’s have we had? How many negative SAM’s?


Below average rainfall in SE Australia will continue (true so far) vs It will never rain again (obviously absurd) is not semantics.


Again, simply not true. He stated “permanent drought”.

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#1446311 - 30/12/2017 09:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
On a side note, the cold outbreak progged for the USA is simply insane. Imagine 95% of Australia with sub-zero temps. That’s what’s forecast, with up to -30’s across slabs of northern US....

...and I note EC has monsoon trough incursion mid next week for the Top End.


Edited by Kino (30/12/2017 09:37)

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#1446313 - 30/12/2017 09:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3294
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Again, simply not true. He stated “permanent drought”.


Also from the article:
Quote:
Very good rainfall in December across south-eastern Australia


So heavy rains from time to time are part of what he considered permanent drought.

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#1446314 - 30/12/2017 10:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2604
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Again, not true, and not even in context. He talks about permanent drought being the norm at start of article for Vic, and then fleetingly references “good rains” at the end with regards to SE Aus.

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#1446317 - 30/12/2017 11:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7348
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Going by recent post's - it seems that many think that both El Nino and La Nina bring dry conditions to Australia!

Here in Gippsland Victoria, we've just had good rain in many regions in past 48 hours from our second wet NW'ly cloudband event for December. December has been a positive experience for us with this developing La Nina.

I reckon Kino is on the mark - watch out for the next tropical build up over NW Aus later next week.

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#1446318 - 30/12/2017 11:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7348
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
A failed wet season in the middle of a La Nina is going to raise a few eyebrows and will get a lot of people wondering if the forbidden topic is starting to have an impact.


Yep, if that were to happen, I'd be the first to convert to becoming a warmist.

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#1446321 - 30/12/2017 11:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18548
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
The problem the past few years for places like Brownsville has been blocking highs and consequential ridging up the east coast. Most of the past month has seen this pattern in play where winds have run parallel to the coast and created a trough to its east blocking long fetch easterlies from bringing moisture out of the Pacific. Some of the models think this will end in coming days and already there is a hint of more favourable trades on the surface maps.

A few of us discussed this set up a couple of years back in here.


This was the type of set up we discussed. It effectively starves the nth east tropics of rain other than the odd coastal shower in the wet tropics and keeps the monsoon trough well north of Cape York or even splits it . In the winds map I have overlaid the surface trough is much further east than it has been in seasons past but the low in the coral sea a couple of weeks back (in the example used) was still blocking trades.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1446323 - 30/12/2017 11:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3294
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Again, not true, and not even in context. He talks about permanent drought being the norm at start of article for Vic, and then fleetingly references “good rains” at the end with regards to SE Aus.


No. The start of the article is:

Quote:
IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought


No where does he talk about Victoria without also mentioning NSW and/or the rest of SE Australia.

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#1446324 - 30/12/2017 11:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3294
Loc: Buderim
Kelvin wave now starting to progress towards the east:


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#1446338 - 30/12/2017 15:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
La Nina having very little impact.. As record breaking rainfall continues to fall over parts of Victoria and southern NSW

First link Vic 24 hours rainfall

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=daily&area=vc

Second link NSW 24 hour rainfall

Third link rainfall month to date for Victoria spot falls of 400-600mm ranges north east of Melbourne in 30 days!

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=vc

Fourth link rainfall month to date for NSW southern galf of the state 3-6 times more than the average normally for December

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=ns

Fifth link rainfall anomalies for Dec so far NSW

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=ns

Sixth link rainfall anomalies so far for December for Victoria with spot falls close to 400mm above normal north east of Melbourne

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=vc

But sure this La Nina is having minimal or no impact. One bad month in parts of Queensland and some people come to this conclusion... Um ok. It is possible there are other factors at play here but it sure isn't La Nina or lack of it. Could it be possible its where the bulk of the troughing and upper troughing has peaked which has been south eastern Australia this month hence the exceptional rainfall? But with this you need moisture and there has been no shortage of it! The proof is in the pudding.

If you get one great month with exceptional rainfall somewhere in south eastern OZ of course you won't get a great month in your area and vice versa if QLD was wet Vic and southern NSW may be drier. How about we look at the 3 month rainfall deciles once December is over and get a bigger picture of what's really happening than just focus how dry it is the last few weeks in parts of QLD.







Edited by _Johnno_ (30/12/2017 15:43)
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#1446340 - 30/12/2017 15:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8561
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Yeah John, was just looking at those maps actually. Some significant anomalies there (up to 400mm above average in parts of NE VIC). The MSLP anomaly map will show some strongly negative values south of the country with low pressure dominating in the bight throwing up fronts - which are having little impact on the east coast but maximum impact for the SE.
Once the high pressure dominates again, the pattern will reverse and in a big way for the east coast.

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#1446341 - 30/12/2017 15:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7208
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
None of that explains the last 5 years of failed wet seasons for NQ though. Just saying.

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#1446342 - 30/12/2017 15:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Imagine if ALL these weather systems that has brought record breaking rain to parts of Victoria, eastern Tasmania and southern NSW had of happened 800-1000-2000-2500kms further north I wonder if these same people would be saying "La Nina is having little influence" Its not all about La Nina its about positioning of troughs, upper troughs where they peak, strengthen etc etc.

In a neutral year it is very unlikely the widespread nature and very heavy rainfall that has fallen in December across Victoria, parts of Tasmania and southern NSW would of happened. Wasn't that long ago for months we have been complaining how cool the Indian ocean has been and still not playing ball according to the BOM and anomaly maps most of the month with cool patch continuing in parts north west of OZ so where did all this record moisture come from? Must be just pure luck hey! I don't think so. La Nina is doing its job in my book.. Could easily be dry down here in January and February with the rain focus moving to QLD but let me say this where it does rain it pour its that type of season.


Edited by _Johnno_ (30/12/2017 15:59)
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