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#1446344 - 30/12/2017 15:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1719
I'm not talking about the Monsoon Mega I'm talking about the southern latitude systems.. October was a wet month large parts of QLD where was the monsoon then? While southern NSW and Victoria saw below average rainfall I didn't hear any complaints then from central and southern Queenslanders and northern NSW folks. The Monsoon is a different topic all together but don't forget its still early days.. Going by your comment its like this season is a bust already.


Edited by _Johnno_ (30/12/2017 15:52)
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#1446346 - 30/12/2017 15:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8401
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Indeed, if the October system was displaced just 400km further north, the N QLDers would've completely forgotten about their 5 failed wet seasons. Luck of the draw, some areas will miss out, some will get unlucky for a longer time, same thing happened during the 90s for much of E QLD.

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#1446347 - 30/12/2017 15:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
One thing I’ve learnt with the wx is that there are always winners and losers sadly. The rebound will come and be excessive. Watch this space.

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#1446349 - 30/12/2017 15:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6734
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I said it because some seem to be under the impression that La-Nina = good wet season for NQ which isn't necessarily true. You only have to look at the posts from NQers in this thread yesterday to see the worry from them because December for them feels no different than the last 5 years.

I agree with you re La-Nina not having impact though, it's obvious it is, and has been for the last few months. But why is it in NQ where La-Nina is supposed to have its biggest impact, it's still dry?

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#1446350 - 30/12/2017 16:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1719
Yes Mega and I can understand that part of the question is open to debate


Edited by _Johnno_ (30/12/2017 16:04)
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#1446352 - 30/12/2017 16:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8401
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Timing and positioning of long wave troughs is part of the answer. La Nina doesn't automatically imply that the area that is impacted most on average, will be impacted at that given time (if you believe it does, some research into ENSO is needed). A trigger is the most important part of the system and the arrival of the monsoon looks to be delayed, but that's normal.

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#1446354 - 30/12/2017 16:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1719
Let me say this Cos I remember this like the back of my hand.. The Monsoon didn't arrive until the end of January in 2012 for northern OZ and that Summer was a La Nina Summer back to back from 2010-11.. So if you think its late now? Just look back to January 2012. Maybe some more research needs to be done in this area perhaps the connection isn't as strong as we first thought monsoon troughs and La Nina's.

EDIT: Indeed LRH.


Edited by _Johnno_ (30/12/2017 16:10)
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#1446356 - 30/12/2017 16:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4975
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Mega
I said it because some seem to be under the impression that La-Nina = good wet season for NQ which isn't necessarily true. You only have to look at the posts from NQers in this thread yesterday to see the worry from them because December for them feels no different than the last 5 years.

I agree with you re La-Nina not having impact though, it's obvious it is, and has been for the last few months. But why is it in NQ where La-Nina is supposed to have its biggest impact, it's still dry?


Have to disagree a little with you there mega. I would say it does feel different to the last 5 years. It is drier. Much drier. The last couple of years especially were late but the air was still very humid and thick. Not this year. It is bone dry. 48% humidity today. Never seen anyrhing like it. I am not worried yet. Too early for that but it can only be called exceptional at this point in time.

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#1446366 - 30/12/2017 17:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18149
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Mega
But why is it in NQ where La-Nina is supposed to have its biggest impact, it's still dry?


Ridging.

Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
A trigger is the most important part of the system and the arrival of the monsoon looks to be delayed, but that's normal.


25 years in the tropics taught me to disregard any nonsense about the monsoon having to arrive in December in Qld and in many cases the wet didn't kick in until late Jan and even mid February for a variety of reasons, often lasting well into April.
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#1446370 - 30/12/2017 17:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Mike Hauber Online   content
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2857
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Imagine if ALL these weather systems that has brought record breaking rain to parts of Victoria, eastern Tasmania and southern NSW had of happened 800-1000-2000-2500kms further north


If all the rain in Victoria and NSW had happened in QLD then all three states would have had below average rainfall for December.

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#1446375 - 30/12/2017 18:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1407
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
La Nina having very little impact.. As record breaking rainfall continues to fall over parts of Victoria and southern NSW

First link Vic 24 hours rainfall

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=daily&area=vc

Second link NSW 24 hour rainfall

Third link rainfall month to date for Victoria spot falls of 400-600mm ranges north east of Melbourne in 30 days!

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=vc

Fourth link rainfall month to date for NSW southern galf of the state 3-6 times more than the average normally for December

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=ns

Fifth link rainfall anomalies for Dec so far NSW

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=ns

Sixth link rainfall anomalies so far for December for Victoria with spot falls close to 400mm above normal north east of Melbourne

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=vc

But sure this La Nina is having minimal or no impact. One bad month in parts of Queensland and some people come to this conclusion... Um ok. It is possible there are other factors at play here but it sure isn't La Nina or lack of it. Could it be possible its where the bulk of the troughing and upper troughing has peaked which has been south eastern Australia this month hence the exceptional rainfall? But with this you need moisture and there has been no shortage of it! The proof is in the pudding.

If you get one great month with exceptional rainfall somewhere in south eastern OZ of course you won't get a great month in your area and vice versa if QLD was wet Vic and southern NSW may be drier. How about we look at the 3 month rainfall deciles once December is over and get a bigger picture of what's really happening than just focus how dry it is the last few weeks in parts of QLD.







I dont see any of this as nina related. Victoria copping it is directly related to the blocking high that has been there for years now and the NW tropical feed, probably lingering effects -IOD (yes yes it doesnt count in summer) well it does and it is, because look where the moisture is coming from. The NW moisture is being triggered over the area right in the pointy spot for low pressure in this L shaped high blocking high right over that NE area of Vic. The wet winter down there was due to -SAM and NW moisture too. Look at all the cyclones off the NW coast one this week and long term GFS going for another 2 in the next 2 weeks. Yet there isnt a cloud in the coral sea.....sure its La Nina! Its all being driven from the NW moisture and a blocking high due to the positioning of the LWT...just like cold fronts post a page back.
I recon with the pressure systems as they are you could have full blown Nino and still be collecting rain like that which fell across Victoria recently.

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#1446376 - 30/12/2017 18:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6756
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
If you N Queenslander's get two cyclones in Jan-Mar 2018, and just say that they fill all the dams up, .....would you be happy then?

Surely with the La Nina conditions current (we are not arguing about that are we???) - don't you all concede that a cyclone or two (or four) are more likely to impinge NQ (Jan - Mar) compared to an El Nino summer?

The weather does what the weather want's - just enjoy the fact that the odds for enhanced rain up in NQ in Jan-Mar are in your favor.

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#1446377 - 30/12/2017 18:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6756
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

I dont see any of this as nina related. Victoria copping it is directly related to the blocking high that has been there for years now and the NW tropical feed, probably lingering effects -IOD (yes yes it doesnt count in summer) well it does and it is, because look where the moisture is coming from. The NW moisture is being triggered over the area right in the pointy spot for low pressure in this L shaped high blocking high right over that NE area of Vic. The wet winter down there was due to -SAM and NW moisture too. Look at all the cyclones off the NW coast one this week and long term GFS going for another 2 in the next 2 weeks. Yet there isnt a cloud in the coral sea.....sure its La Nina! Its all being driven from the NW moisture and a blocking high due to the positioning of the LWT...just like cold fronts post a page back.
I recon with the pressure systems as they are you could have full blown Nino and still be collecting rain like that which fell across Victoria recently.


Victoria has/is experiencing rain events as a result of NW cloud bands as you note. However this scenario is always enhanced in La Nina years in my experience. .....else we cop the huge bushfires.

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#1446378 - 30/12/2017 19:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1719
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
La Nina having very little impact.. As record breaking rainfall continues to fall over parts of Victoria and southern NSW

First link Vic 24 hours rainfall

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=daily&area=vc

Second link NSW 24 hour rainfall

Third link rainfall month to date for Victoria spot falls of 400-600mm ranges north east of Melbourne in 30 days!

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=vc

Fourth link rainfall month to date for NSW southern galf of the state 3-6 times more than the average normally for December

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=ns

Fifth link rainfall anomalies for Dec so far NSW

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=ns

Sixth link rainfall anomalies so far for December for Victoria with spot falls close to 400mm above normal north east of Melbourne

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=vc

But sure this La Nina is having minimal or no impact. One bad month in parts of Queensland and some people come to this conclusion... Um ok. It is possible there are other factors at play here but it sure isn't La Nina or lack of it. Could it be possible its where the bulk of the troughing and upper troughing has peaked which has been south eastern Australia this month hence the exceptional rainfall? But with this you need moisture and there has been no shortage of it! The proof is in the pudding.

If you get one great month with exceptional rainfall somewhere in south eastern OZ of course you won't get a great month in your area and vice versa if QLD was wet Vic and southern NSW may be drier. How about we look at the 3 month rainfall deciles once December is over and get a bigger picture of what's really happening than just focus how dry it is the last few weeks in parts of QLD.







I dont see any of this as nina related. Victoria copping it is directly related to the blocking high that has been there for years now and the NW tropical feed, probably lingering effects -IOD (yes yes it doesnt count in summer) well it does and it is, because look where the moisture is coming from. The NW moisture is being triggered over the area right in the pointy spot for low pressure in this L shaped high blocking high right over that NE area of Vic. The wet winter down there was due to -SAM and NW moisture too. Look at all the cyclones off the NW coast one this week and long term GFS going for another 2 in the next 2 weeks. Yet there isnt a cloud in the coral sea.....sure its La Nina! Its all being driven from the NW moisture and a blocking high due to the positioning of the LWT...just like cold fronts post a page back.
I recon with the pressure systems as they are you could have full blown Nino and still be collecting rain like that which fell across Victoria recently.


I disagree it's a combination of both low level moisture from the east and upper moisture from the north west, SA has not had the exceptional rainfall like Victoria the last month yes above average in some areas but not 6 times above the monthly average and record breaking in some areas as SA has less of an impact from the Coral sea and Tasman sea like Victoria does.

That SAME BLOCK that your referring too is the same block that BOM mentioned that can happen in a weak to moderate La Nina set up for Victoria of heatwaves, when you get weeks on end of heat and high humidity and constant north east winds its usually going to end with a bang as it did earlier in the month.

That same cloud band that went over SA brought next to nothing across southern SA the last 48 hours but exploded as it went into central eastern Victoria and into southern NSW that's indicative of La Nina impact as the trough interacts with moister air in the lower levels from the east coast, if it wasn't the same result would of happened in South Australia if its all coming from the north west.. That's happened a few times this month which tends to happen more in La Nina's years not neutral or El Nino years that's for sure.

Same with eastern Tasmania it has been a very wet month! There main rain DOES NOT come from north west clouds bands as its shaded by the ranges to the west, eastern Tasmania does well usually in La Nina set ups with moisture pouring in from the east or north east.


Edited by _Johnno_ (30/12/2017 19:19)
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#1446379 - 30/12/2017 19:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
It’s clearly La Niña related because all the moisture was of tropical origin. Without such it would be the usual 0.5 - 5mm instead of what they’ve been having.

Hadley Cell is forming; TC’s have started and looking at EC the monsoon should arrive next week for its annual sojourn. I think we will be looking back in 4 weeks time all with smiles on our faces.


Edited by Kino (30/12/2017 19:26)

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#1446387 - 30/12/2017 20:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 646
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Petros
If you N Queenslander's get two cyclones in Jan-Mar 2018, and just say that they fill all the dams up, .....would you be happy then?

Surely with the La Nina conditions current (we are not arguing about that are we???) - don't you all concede that a cyclone or two (or four) are more likely to impinge NQ (Jan - Mar) compared to an El Nino summer?

The weather does what the weather want's - just enjoy the fact that the odds for enhanced rain up in NQ in Jan-Mar are in your favor.


Well according to BoM the chances are only around 50/50 for above average MEDIAN rainfall which for Townsville for example is well less than the average. So I infer from that if they used AVERAGE for their forecasts then we would be looking at a lower chance even. So far things are worse than some El Niño years for December. At least 3/4 of January looks ordinary. Everyone talking about how much moisture you guys are getting down there well it’s not passing here to get to you. Humidity has been below 50pc most days in the past 2 week.

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#1446390 - 30/12/2017 21:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1407
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
It’s clearly La Niña related because all the moisture was of tropical origin. Without such it would be the usual 0.5 - 5mm instead of what they’ve been having.

Hadley Cell is forming; TC’s have started and looking at EC the monsoon should arrive next week for its annual sojourn. I think we will be looking back in 4 weeks time all with smiles on our faces.


It came from a cyclone in WA....Just because its tropical in origin doesnt automatically mean its La nina related. Im sure someone might look at anomaly maps for -IOD years and EL nino combo and see that the pattern would start to show what you are seeing now....a big swathe of moisture across the centre of the continent. Happy to be proven wrong. havent checked. My point is I think you can get the same result for Vic in any given ENSO year when NW moisture is active

I cant see how this http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/jma/fd/wvblue.html shows anything but moisture streaming from the west. I think its just dam lucky that the NW is paying up otherwise it would be bushfire weather in Vic. I know Jonno is convinced the La nina is helping but if this Nina event has anything to pay its all to come because everything related to west pacific moisture is just disappearing east of the pacific islands...

Victoria has been favoured for rainfall for a while now and it spans right through the ENSO states. Those SSTs of SE coast might have some affect as Jonno suggests but is that really even ENSO related?....no really just high temps again driven up by the blocking high anchored there for ever.

At the moment I see a pattern that is exactly the opposite of what I would have been expecting to see by now....

P.s we did get .5mm again...same as the last 5 systems because we are east of the ranges and these NW feeds arent paying. If it was really properly pushing in eastern moisture main river flooding will be in the news and greater NNSW would get these 50-100mm events that Vic is getting.

Still cant see anything too special out to mid Jan.....

Who wants to bet on the SOI figure for the end of Jan?

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#1446399 - 30/12/2017 22:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Moisture across the continent has nothing to do with the IOD nor El Niño. The IOD has NIL influence this time of year, as said many times.

The cyclone in WA started over Northern NT and was fed by moisture from the east pushing across the Arafura and Timor seas that created the disturbance before pushing SW and tapping into the monsoon trough and Indian. Pretty standard Hadley Cell operation.

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#1446404 - 30/12/2017 22:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1407
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Moisture across the continent has nothing to do with the IOD nor El Niño.
but has everything to do with La nina because the moisture was of tropical origin.....yeah nah.

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#1446407 - 30/12/2017 22:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1617
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: Kino
Moisture across the continent has nothing to do with the IOD nor El Niño.
but has everything to do with La nina because the moisture was of tropical origin.....yeah nah.


La Niña = enhanced easterly trades - more moisture available, instability formed north of the Top End, tapping into that moisture and forming a low etc. yep, La Niña contributed. Certainly wasn’t El Niño, as you suggested, because there isn’t one, wasn’t the IOD as there’s isn’t one. No MJO. No monsoon trough at that stage. So what else could have caused it?


Edited by Kino (30/12/2017 22:46)

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