Speaking of tropical moisture - just look at QLD's next trough system - no shortage of moisture there, and streamlines all show this humid N'ly flow coming down from the tropics. In an El-Nino that area is usually very dry so down here you'd more often than not end up with endless dry heat and no storms with such troughs.

Agreed with Kino and John. Extra moisture associated with the tropical low with a NW cloudband dropping significant rain in SE AUS and hundreds more over inland WA. Why extra moisture? Because higher SSTs nearby and around the country. Why higher SSTs? Because La nina. Simple logic there, you could argue whether you believe it's attributed or not til the cows come home, but is it not fair to say that the excess moisture and rainfall aremore likely than not caused by La Nina?

If we bring the IOD into the picture, what helps a negative IOD come about? La Nina.

You need to read posts more carefully. I didnt say there was an El nino or -IOD. I said you could look at years with that combo and it would likely show the pattern of rainfall anomalies you are seeing now and it doesnt matter what the ENSO state is....when there is active NW moisture Victoria is likely to benefit.

You said "Moisture across the continent" as if to suggest that moisture across the continent generally never has anything to do with IOD and El nino.....thus my response.

If you are actually saying " the current moisture" across the continent has been contributed to by La nina, I wont disagree entirely, but it just looks like standard enhanced convective activity in warm water to the NW of continent with good shear environment. The trades are only just picking up across that area anyway and were fairly benign in the lead up to cyclone formation werent they? Im just saying the Indian Ocean looks to be playing a bigger role in moisture availability to the east of the continent as it also did across the winter and spring season.

Don't know why you deleted this from your post but I think that's a great analysis, you're spot on there imo. That's why it annoys me seeing trough after trough amplify in the east Tasman Sea because it usually leaves us ridged in with no real triggers to help tap into that moisture from the tropics. Seems like such a waste of water when it happens so often.

Thoroughly agree; the nuances associated with the various climate drivers!

lol I was gonna leave it there, but thought my main paragraph was enough. Anyway, glad you plucked that part out.

Anyway EC has this shift in pattern happening toward the end of the run with a broad inland trough and highs back south again. Whether it'll be a swift or slow shift is to be seen.

EC also pegged monsoon incursion next week so that effect should flow down ~ 2 weeks later if it happens.

Yes, spot on. When people debate why the south east of the country has had plenty and the nth east tropics have had none it is due to this very fact. The ridge on the east coast has sent moisture down the centre out of the tropics into the sth east of the country. It's not rocket science.

The Ssts over the NW are nothing remarkable and not why there was a cyclone, not had anything to do with LaNina. If you want to look at high Ssts look at the Gulf but nothing coming from there. Not saying that there isn’t a La Niña but I think you are all overplaying it’s effects that is for sure.

gazza, that's because there are no disturbances in the Gulf, if there was it'd explode overnight. Once the monsoon kicks in, you'll have disturbances all along it delivering massive widespread falls across the north. It all comes down to where they form exactly. I've never seen SSTs this high go to waste, from experience somewhere gets hammered in the end.

Now this is not right.

Check back to 2016, record breaking rainfall across SA due to negative IOD and a co-operating SAM at the time of the infeeds. Significantly better than VIC did in spring and summer. NW feed meeting up with southern fronts peaking in the Bight and the Central SA region. Some help from pacific but minimal.

Fast forward to 2017 no negative IOD, closer to positive if anything but a developing La Nina and very warm SST's in the Tasman. NW moisture??? well where is my damn rain then in Adelaide!!!! cos I can tell you right now it aint coming from the NW this season, there has been absolutely sweet jack johnny coming from the NW and hence we are bloody dry. Many fronts have smashed Perth then dried out over SA without any supply only to magically and incredible erupt over the border into VIC and NSW. Why? SURFACE MOISTURE and bucketloads of it feeding in off the Tasman and the Coral, aided by those SST's. NW moisture has got bugger all to do with this season - that sort of moisture is usually middle and upper level....looks pretty on satpic but what's the good when it's dry as a nonger below 10,000ft.

TS

Yes spot on Thunderstuck.. Could not put that better myself.

Fair enough.....but if the blocking high was sitting 800ks further west, you would likely be getting that same peaking of fronts and a trigger over your region and it would be little to do with the pacific and your view might be different.
Its not like the NW is cold there is cooler water at 100W and warm water 120W so this would seem to be a nice setup for injecting moisture? Its just the trigger that is the key.

As I said in my earlier post is the Tasman heat anomalies due to La nina or is due to the blocking high? In which case if Victoria is benefiting from eastern moisture is it really La nina related or just a a helpful benefit of the blocking system causing high SST temps and triggers over the region...

The driver that embeds the LWT and creates these blocking systems is really what is paying up the rain. Im becoming less interested in other climate drivers and more interested in what creates the blocking systems, LWT nodes, Jet stream etc. I recon we could have cold temp anomalies off the east coast, but if we had HP systems sitting low in the tasman and long fetch easterlies blowing into cutoff cold pools we would get floods just the same as if you had warm water anomalies.

There is a load of atmospheric moisture up here too but it hasnt done anything yet due to the pressure systems and lack of triggers.

Anyway its not far off a proper change to what will obviously be a nina pattern so my agitating re what has been happening will change. N-hemisphere is super cold in Asia and US so this might also play a role in driving some serious events in a warm Australian region.

Happy New year!

I will be revisiting this thread in a few months just to talk about how the Monsoon failed again for NQ haha.

Got northerlies today, its 50% humidity.

Allllll that moisture....

22mm here for the month too, only 100mm behind average for the month.

This is the driest oct-dec period Ive seen. Sorry but I cant see a monumental shift in a weather pattern. You cant blame us either.

Hopefully the latest GFS run is correct in predicting troughier conditions for Qld towards the end of next week Trav.

Doesn't work that way....if the blocking high was 800km further west we'd simply have even drier weather...with a stronger ridge than ever! Because the lay of the land will just re-shape the high, troughing will still form in the east as it always does in summer, it just might stop the pure NE/E feed into VIC as they would have more attempts at southerly and SE intrusions. In a nutshell we are simply too far west to benefit for significant NE infeeds of long duration, the only exception when we can maximise potential is during a very strong positive SAM, combined with very significant inland troughing PLUS a strong La Nina where the moisture does not dry out when it gets to us so we actually have a chance down here. But it doesn't take much for the Bight ridge to reform at the slightest hint of cooler air pushing up from the SW-S..and the trough/lifting mechanisms just shift 700-800km N whilst the coastal and growing regions of the state become more stable and drier again. This is our bread and butter in warmer months mate!!

TS

I dont think anybody knows exactly how it works TS, so starting off your posts with, "no this is not right" and "doesnt work that way" seem to suggest you have total authority over weather dynamics. Its just another opinion bud, and its probably a good one, but doesnt mean mine isnt equally so. There are so many variables, if that HPS was 800ks further west, with the correct combos of SAM, LWT, PDO, ENSO, SSTs etc there could be a million outcomes, including heavy rain or drought over your region. No absolutes, so dont present that way.
Isnt it raining in SA right now? Isnt it coming from the NW?
Some nice storms events about in the east....but no real Nina payday yet whichever way its spun. The blocking high just pushes on for the forecast period with some evidence in the models that what I have described above will mean more rain for SA in the coming weeks....