Page 17 of 36 < 1 2 ... 15 16 17 18 19 ... 35 36 >
Topic Options
#1411846 - 12/03/2017 14:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Nature's Fury]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1978
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Have you all seen how much heat is in the subsurface area of the eastern Pacific? No possible way we're going anywhere except El-Nino. It's a matter of how big now.


And what about all the cold water in the sub surface last year?

No La Nina eventuated.

Top
#1411851 - 12/03/2017 14:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1738
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Have you all seen how much heat is in the subsurface area of the eastern Pacific? No possible way we're going anywhere except El-Nino. It's a matter of how big now.


And what about all the cold water in the sub surface last year?

No La Nina eventuated.


It did drop us down almost to La Nina levels, but I'm not sure the amounts are the same. This heat extends across a fair greater area and is stronger than those colder waters.

Top
#1411855 - 12/03/2017 14:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
I should mention that the IOD is suggested to be Neutral for the Winter period ATM on all models. But it does look close to a Positive IOD on some models and El Niņo may help the IOD go into positive territory.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1411858 - 12/03/2017 14:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1499
Loc: Kingaroy
The atmosphere has to couple with the ocean otherwise we get stuck in a warm neutral which doesn't do us any good. You need El Nino before you can get La Nina and with nearly 90% of Queensland in drought, La Nina is what we need.

Top
#1411859 - 12/03/2017 14:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6322
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
The atmosphere has to couple with the ocean otherwise we get stuck in a warm neutral which doesn't do us any good. You need El Nino before you can get La Nina and with nearly 90% of Queensland in drought, La Nina is what we need.


The problem with that is we just came out of a super Nino in 2015, but the switch to La-Nina still failed miserably.

And yeah NF, that warm pool on the subsurface does look a bit worrying, I just hope that so long as the trades keep blowing then those warm waters won't amount to anything major on the surface.

Top
#1411898 - 12/03/2017 20:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
The final thing I want to talk about is the relationship between SAM and ENSO. In austral summer, there is a correlation between Canonical El Niņo and Negative SAM and a further correlation between Canonical La Niņa and Positive SAM. In austral late Autumn-Early winter, Warm-pool El Niņo promotes Negative SAM and Warm-pool La Niņa promotes Positive SAM.

Extract from my latest article about SAM (basically what I wrote a couple of days ago on here)
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/southern-annular-mode.html
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1412151 - 14/03/2017 01:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1614
Another drop in 3.4 Nino temps this week.. According to NOAA it has dropped from 0.0c to -0.2c below average (anomaly).

Once again this highlights its not doing what models suggested as ALL had temps rising from late Jan/Feb onwards.


Edited by _Johnno_ (14/03/2017 01:24)
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

Top
#1412171 - 14/03/2017 08:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2510
Loc: Buderim
Not sure why anyone would expect the models to predict every minor dip and rise over a couple weeks. The general warming trend that they predicted has occurred, and I am sure will continue in the next few months.

Top
#1412197 - 14/03/2017 10:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17447
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
The final thing I want to talk about is the relationship between SAM and ENSO. In austral summer, there is a correlation between Canonical El Niņo and Negative SAM and a further correlation between Canonical La Niņa and Positive SAM. In austral late Autumn-Early winter, Warm-pool El Niņo promotes Negative SAM and Warm-pool La Niņa promotes Positive SAM.

Extract from my latest article about SAM (basically what I wrote a couple of days ago on here)
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/southern-annular-mode.html


I enjoyed this little article thanks. Meanwhile I read a couple of days back on one of the news sites that global weather agencies have been visiting Australia to discuss the lack of cyclones the past couple of years. It has them completely puzzled.
_________________________
"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

Top
#1412231 - 14/03/2017 11:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1614
Mike the climate models graphs are a month to month basis and NONE of them predicted the fall of temps for NINO 3.4 (even if its temporary and I'm sure it will be) and no it hasn't been a week to week thing its been since mid Feb they started to decline that's a month in my book thanks to stronger than normal easterlies for long sustain periods the last month.

Most of us know we are heading into a warm neutral or even possible El Nino phase later this year ONCE AGAIN I'm just putting up what's happening NOW. Is that ok with you?

Not sure why you feel the need to dispute every post I put up.. I may understand if I was making future predictions but the fact is I'm not just stating what's happening now.


Edited by _Johnno_ (14/03/2017 11:26)
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

Top
#1412310 - 14/03/2017 16:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2510
Loc: Buderim
Nino 3.4 index has droppped for exactly 2 weeks running.

Top
#1412339 - 14/03/2017 18:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1614
That's a pretty long black line for two weeks (declining) given that's a 3 month space (between Jan and April)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/images3/nino34Monadj.gif


Edited by _Johnno_ (14/03/2017 18:14)
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

Top
#1412351 - 14/03/2017 19:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2510
Loc: Buderim
That chart shows the monthly value for march lower than the monthly value for February. So far march has been going for 2 weeks.

Top
#1412526 - 15/03/2017 12:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1614
I guess you can look at it your way Mike but others may look at it differently

There's been a slow decline through NINO 3, 3.4 and 4 regions since Mid Feb despite the ONE rise in NINO 3.4 end of Feb but NINO 3 and 4 have cooled slowly since til now (which is a month) and 3.4 resumed its cooling.

The general consensus is a slow decline put together over a 4 week period by these three areas.

My whole point to this conversation is this was the so called period models had temps rising since Late Jan early Feb but the bottom line is it hasn't occurred yet.. I'm not saying it won't eventually happen but so far it hasn't.


From the BOM...



to 19/2/2017

to 26/2/2017

to 5/3/2017

to 12/3/2017

NINO3 +0.6 °C +0.6 °C +0.5 °C +0.4 °C

NINO3.4 +0.1 °C +0.2 °C +0.1 °C +0.1 °C

NINO4 0.0 °C 0.0 °C −0.1 °C −0.1 °C




Edited by _Johnno_ (15/03/2017 12:56)
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

Top
#1412531 - 15/03/2017 13:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1614
And recent activity in the Sub-Surface..

The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to February) shows cooler than average water across the sub-surface of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. These cool anomalies have strengthened compared to January, but have generally been weakening and decreasing in volume since September.

Thanks to the BOM for this info.


Edited by _Johnno_ (15/03/2017 13:09)
_________________________
Come and check out my weather page on facebook https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc?ref=hl

Top
#1412532 - 15/03/2017 13:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 458
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
looks to be a kelvin wave inducing strong Papuan coastal upwelling. Could be the clincher for elnino.

Top
#1412544 - 15/03/2017 14:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
looks to be a kelvin wave inducing strong Papuan coastal upwelling. Could be the clincher for elnino.

POAMA doesn't have Kelvin waves on their obs.
Though somebody twittered me about it...

GFS here


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (15/03/2017 14:09)
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1412546 - 15/03/2017 14:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2510
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
I guess you can look at it your way Mike but others may look at it differently



As the data you yourself quoted nino 3.4 has dropped for the last two weeks. I'm curious about this other way that other people may look at this.

Top
#1412547 - 15/03/2017 14:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
I guess you can look at it your way Mike but others may look at it differently



As the data you yourself quoted nino 3.4 has dropped for the last two weeks. I'm curious about this other way that other people may look at this.

You are both very good at what you do here. There's much better things to argue about than NIŅO 3.4 Observations. It's really not that big of a deal.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1412548 - 15/03/2017 14:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2510
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
[quote=Funkyseefunkydo]looks to be a kelvin wave inducing strong Papuan coastal upwelling. Could be the clincher for elnino.



Charts show solid westerlies just north of PNG. That should introduce significant upwelling along the coast, and could contribute to a Kelvin wave, although my guess is that more westerly activity would be required. But the previous Kelvin wave came from nothing as far as I could tell, so who knows.

Does 200HPa vertical velocity have any significance beyond identifying likely areas of high pressure below sinking air/low pressure under rising air? So lots of sinking air in west Pacific contributing to enhanced trade winds for the last couple of weeks.


Edited by Mike Hauber (15/03/2017 14:17)

Top
Page 17 of 36 < 1 2 ... 15 16 17 18 19 ... 35 36 >


Who's Online
5 registered (aussiestormfreak, Timbuck, Donzah, Ronfishes, Sidney), 283 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Astraphobia, Jillamanda, terrydavidphoto
Forum Stats
29341 Members
32 Forums
23661 Topics
1458385 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image