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#1413398 - 19/03/2017 15:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1738
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Those 2c+ temps in NINO 1 and 2 is starting to cause all sorts of problem in South America

http://news.trust.org/item/20170317231203-gvjhc/


Thanks for posting that. Not surprised at all, the level of warming out there is insane both on the surface and subsurface.

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#1413431 - 19/03/2017 16:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1588
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Wow ,10 times their average wet season rain.
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#1413826 - 21/03/2017 09:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2510
Loc: Buderim


Nino 3.4 index now up to its highest value since the start of the year (just barely).

So much for a significant cooling that the models had failed to predict.

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#1413884 - 21/03/2017 14:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6322
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
What do you mean? When did the models predict significant cooling?

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#1413896 - 21/03/2017 15:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4277
Loc: Brisbane
There was significant cooling. The Nino 3.4 anomaly value dropped from a peak of 2.5 to minus 0.5 (not too

I would further note that in the 82/83, 87/88 and 97/98 El-Nino events, the lowest 3.4 value occurred after a temporary rebound following the initial drop of the peak 3.4 value.

With many indicators showing that the current warming might have peaked I'm sceptical of the forecasts for a return to an El-Nino this year. I'm much more likely to expect a return to cool neutral by the end of the year with a small chance of a La Nina.

I would put the likelihood of an El-Nino event as very small despite the current +2 anomalies in the Nino 1+2 region.

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#1413905 - 21/03/2017 15:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6322
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The trade winds just keep blowing above average too for the next 2 weeks at least. I'm still not sure where this huge El-Nino event that the models are predicting is going to come from. Subsurface is one thing but so long as the trades are strong then warming won't be as significant on the surface.

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#1413916 - 21/03/2017 16:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6322
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Also don't forget how in March of 2014, the majority of the ECMWF members were going for similar conditions to what they are now, then compare it to what actually happened...it was weak at best:



Look especially after May...warming suddenly stopped when every member but one said it wouldn't.

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#1414023 - 21/03/2017 20:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1738
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I think the only thing preventing Nino from skyrocketing is the trades, but only for the short-term. The waters are scorching out there on top and beneath the water. There's no way that heat is going to dissipate any time soon. I highly doubt we'll see anything below a minor El-Nino this year.

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#1414062 - 21/03/2017 22:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1978
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Scorching?

Where is it scorching?

If anything the whole pacific is a lot cooler then just before the 2015/2016 El Nino.

Sea level anomalies are nothing much.

I like many others think it will get warm, but nothing too spectacular. May even lead into a La Nina.

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#1414065 - 21/03/2017 22:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1738
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

The whole eastern Pacific is baking. Sub-surface down to 100 metres is warmer than average with some a hot zone closer to the surface and it just keeps building. As soon as the trades weaken, the Pacific won't stand much chance.

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#1414104 - 22/03/2017 08:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2510
Loc: Buderim
Compare now with 2015. Pacific wide surface temps look comparable to me. 2015 had the 'blob' of warm temps in NE. North Pacific is cooler now, but the tropical south Pacific is very warm all over. One of the weakest SH tropical cyclone activities in history has contributed to this, and held back el nino development as no cyclones and few lows have been around to assist WWBs.

Comparing the equatorial subsurface shows anomalies at above +5 in March 97, above +4 in March 2015, but only between +1 and +2 currently.

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#1414191 - 22/03/2017 13:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
My ENSO Opinion.
Atmosphere = Cool Neutral
Ocean = Warm Neutral
We need both to couple at El Niņo levels. Atmosphere needs to get closer to El Niņo for one. La Niņa is slightly possible.
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#1414278 - 22/03/2017 17:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/first-australia-snow-season-outlook.html

Is about the snow, but I also discuss SSTAs in the Bight and the Tasman which may be of interest to this thread.
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#1414341 - 22/03/2017 20:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1499
Loc: Kingaroy
All that heat has to go somewhere. Something tells me that we will be smashed next year and into 2019.

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#1419706 - 30/03/2017 16:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1978
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Big cooling in the coral sea where Debbie was.

AAO/SAM going ever so slightly positive.

Trade winds still going.

SOI is slightly positive.

3.4 SST at 0.2 as of the 22nd.

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#1420474 - 02/04/2017 15:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.


Polar vortex forming over Antarctica and Zonal winds picking up.
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#1420516 - 02/04/2017 21:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 43
Will be of great interest to see how it(the vortex) develops this coming season - my impression is that column ozone may have improved certainly from recent years - the ozone hole last spring was- from memory-at the bottom of the range(since 1979).

If the brewer dobson circulation remains strong there is likely to be adiabatic warming in the vortex.

The recent trend of vortex cooling and intensification (+ve sam) may relent.

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#1420556 - 03/04/2017 10:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
snowbooby Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 43
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
at the bottom of the range(since 1979).



I'll correct that....since the early 1990's. The figures are nasa's annual mean ozone hole for the period 7Sept to 13 Oct-millions of SquareKM.2002 is really stand out year.

1992 22.3
1993 24.2
1994 23.6
1996 22.7
1997 22.1
1998 25.9
1999 23.2
2000 24.8
2001 25
2002 12
2003 25.8
2004 19.5
2005 24.4
2006 26.6
2007 22
2008 25.2
2009 22
2010 19.4
2011 24.7
2012 17.8
2013 21
2014 20.9
2015 25.6
2016 20.9

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#1420618 - 03/04/2017 17:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1738
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Does a stronger polar vortex affect SAM? Wouldn't that mean polar winds wrapping more tightly around the pole meaning less chance of a negative SAM?

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#1420637 - 03/04/2017 19:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Nature's Fury]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Does a stronger polar vortex affect SAM? Wouldn't that mean polar winds wrapping more tightly around the pole meaning less chance of a negative SAM?

Yep polar vortex and SAM are connected. Once the polar vortex as at winter strength, Negative SAM is linked with a weak polar vortex and Positive SAM is linked with a strong polar vortex. ATM Vortex is just growing. Yes to your original question, but polar fronts can still affect Australia in the positive phase, just less strong fronts.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (03/04/2017 19:36)
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