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#1401590 - 11/01/2017 21:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1982
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
You are game saying that Chris.

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#1401631 - 12/01/2017 07:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Brett Guy Offline
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Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: RC
You are game saying that Chris.


wink

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#1401654 - 12/01/2017 10:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23527
Loc: Townsville
Another year another drought for us in NQ.
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#1401667 - 12/01/2017 12:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1614
Originally Posted By: Mega
Has anyone seen this morning's 2 week charts? They show high pressure cells moving up the ocean as far north as the Central Queensland latitudes, that is an August / September pattern right there. It's all very strange for January, but what happens if the SAM stays this way for god knows how long? If the SAM had been close to neutral or positive for all those years then what's to stop it from staying negative for the longer term? This seems like very uncharted territory here no?


Hi Mega, I'm just wondering what charts are showing this? I haven't seen anything out of normal. The SAM also looks like it heading close back to neutral again.. Not sure for how long for though.
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#1401693 - 12/01/2017 15:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1740
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Originally Posted By: Mega
Has anyone seen this morning's 2 week charts? They show high pressure cells moving up the ocean as far north as the Central Queensland latitudes, that is an August / September pattern right there. It's all very strange for January, but what happens if the SAM stays this way for god knows how long? If the SAM had been close to neutral or positive for all those years then what's to stop it from staying negative for the longer term? This seems like very uncharted territory here no?


Hi Mega, I'm just wondering what charts are showing this? I haven't seen anything out of normal. The SAM also looks like it heading close back to neutral again.. Not sure for how long for though.


Last night's EC and GFS ext runs, particularly EC.

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#1401696 - 12/01/2017 15:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6331
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Originally Posted By: Mega
Has anyone seen this morning's 2 week charts? They show high pressure cells moving up the ocean as far north as the Central Queensland latitudes, that is an August / September pattern right there. It's all very strange for January, but what happens if the SAM stays this way for god knows how long? If the SAM had been close to neutral or positive for all those years then what's to stop it from staying negative for the longer term? This seems like very uncharted territory here no?


Hi Mega, I'm just wondering what charts are showing this? I haven't seen anything out of normal. The SAM also looks like it heading close back to neutral again.. Not sure for how long for though.


Last night's EC and GFS ext runs, particularly EC.




As NF said, it was shown on both EC & GFS runs the night before last.
And regarding the SAM, how many times have we been saying that it's heading back to neutral only to fall negative again? I'm not falling for that again.

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#1401706 - 12/01/2017 16:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Right you are about SAM. We probably need something to trigger it to go proper neutral or positive like ENSO or IOD, etc. Something in the atmosphere has to change.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (12/01/2017 16:18)
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#1401707 - 12/01/2017 16:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Online   content
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Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 458
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
I agree. I give it a day before it changes. SAM

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#1401730 - 12/01/2017 17:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Latest run of EC Monthly Control says continued Negative SAM for at least the next 30 days.
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#1401870 - 13/01/2017 11:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2513
Loc: Buderim
A fairly amazing westerly wind burst forecast at about 7 days. It only has moderate impact on the equator, but looking at about 5 S it is pretty extreme in the historical record, and may be comparable to just after the peak of the 98 event, which is the biggest I can find without checking all the neutral years. Usually strong westerlies at 5 S occur early in the year during the breakdown of an el nino event, and is one of the first stages of this breakdown - the NH high strengthens and pushes the westerly wind caused by SH tropical activity to the south and weakens the SST-WWB feedback.

It looks like the NH high is strengthening and making a serious effort to push the trade winds along, but the SH has decided it is still in the last stages of what should be a long gone el nino. That would sound like a possible recipe for La Nina development. But currently along the equator we have cool surface with warm anomalies underneath, opposite of the La Nina transition pattern of warm surface with cool anomalies underneath.

Latest CFS model runs have decided to be more uncertain with some individual runs forecasting a moderate La NIna and others
forecasting a strong el nino. The majority of runs are still neutral.

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#1401889 - 13/01/2017 12:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Online   content
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Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 458
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
From NOAA - A three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño has only happened once since 1950, in 1963/1964/1965. This doesn’t make it impossible that El Niño could develop, but it means that we aren’t counting on it.

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#1401896 - 13/01/2017 13:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1500
Loc: Kingaroy
When it comes to climate anything is possible, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation could have some big surprises in store for us this year. 2014 was a warm neutral/weak El Nino year before the powerful El Nino in 2015, what's to say that La Nina can do something similar.


Edited by Chris Stumer (13/01/2017 13:50)

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#1401996 - 13/01/2017 21:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1982
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
There does not seem to be as much heat overall on the surface of the oceans at the moment. When you compare it to the SST's of twelve months ago.

The large area between North America and Japan is a lot cooler then it was. As is the Indian Ocean surface and the southern Pacific has some warm blobs but no huge massive areas.

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#1402034 - 14/01/2017 06:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6331
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Still no end in sight to this pattern. Humungous upper level ridging over most of Australia with a never ending stream of fronts smashing NZ, even moreso in the next two weeks than there has ever been. It's almost like a winter pattern down there. We are screwed if this keeps up longer term.

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#1402042 - 14/01/2017 08:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
greg.l Offline
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Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
From NOAA - A three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño has only happened once since 1950, in 1963/1964/1965. This doesn’t make it impossible that El Niño could develop, but it means that we aren’t counting on it.


2016 wasn't a La Nina year so I don't think that applies in this situation. It shows the problems with the termination, neither 2014 nor 2016 were very neutral, but in the record that's how they show.

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#1402240 - 15/01/2017 08:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 17
Loc: lennox head
Exactly, a tendency towards either polarity of the ENSO spectrum is sometimes enough to produce the results typified by either a named Nino or La Nina.

This is weird, because we've had a clear Nino breakdown and the Pacific SST anomalies look more Nina than Nino yet big chunks of the eastern seaboard that are usually sensitive to such transitions are behaving like they are in full blown El Nino conditions.

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#1402247 - 15/01/2017 09:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6331
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I agree MM, that's what gets me. Could it be that something else closer to home is overriding the effects of what a typical cool- neutral / weak Nina would usually have on eastern Australia? The consistently negative SAM maybe? I don't know.

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#1402272 - 15/01/2017 11:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1500
Loc: Kingaroy
POAMA is suggesting El Nino thresholds could be reached May.

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#1402389 - 15/01/2017 18:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
UKMO predicts ENSO over El Niño thresholds by April.
It also predicts a Neutral IOD to the end of the forecast.

NASA GMAO also backs up UKMO for a possible El Niño by April.
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#1402392 - 15/01/2017 19:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Bello Weather Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 354
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
UKMO predicts ENSO over El Niño thresholds by April.
It also predicts a Neutral IOD to the end of the forecast.

NASA GMAO also backs up UKMO for a possible El Niño by April.

...as is Joe Bastardi, citing the cooler Indian Ocean as the driver...
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