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#1426563 - 23/06/2017 16:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4323
Loc: Wynnum
marakai -
Re your comparison with thermometers. I have an expensive Davis Pro 2 and also use 5 mercury thermometers, one of which measures grass temps. In hanging mercury thermometers onto the Davis at night, they are regularly 0.4 to 0.7 deg colder than the Davis.

I even purchased an upgraded thermometer sensor for the Davis for $260( apparently the standard ones supplied with the unit at purchase are not as accurate particularly in measuring humidity ). This new sensor made no difference and still read high.
Then I got 2 el cheapo electronic units from Bunnings just for testing purposes in various locations. These too registered higher than the mercury ones, but not quite as much.

As the mercury ones were used for centuries and the electronic ones only for a few decades now, which ones are technically correct.
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#1426582 - 23/06/2017 20:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: retired weather man]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
RWM I wonder how widespread that is!

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#1426589 - 23/06/2017 22:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 2
Loc: Heathfield SA
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

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#1426590 - 23/06/2017 23:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: MGD]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 314
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: MGD
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

You should start that thread. It's a good idea. This thread always seems to be about ENSO and occasionally the IOD. They matter, but there are drivers that matter more.
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#1426597 - 24/06/2017 07:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 108
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: MGD
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

You should start that thread. It's a good idea. This thread always seems to be about ENSO and occasionally the IOD. They matter, but there are drivers that matter more.


Yes things are a bit enso-centric. Really, this thread should cover it.

MGD I dont think it’s through lack of interest that questions seem to fall into a silent void at times - speaking for myself -it’s more that it is difficult to put in a nutshell and I suspect that many of us know and understand much less than we might appear to.

Stronger fronts will occur when there is a strong south to north(meridional) flow. This depends in part on the weakening of the polar vortex and when it occurs - perhaps later in the winter if we are lucky, or spring.

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#1426601 - 24/06/2017 09:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
sparraz Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/03/2014
Posts: 30
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: MGD
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

You should start that thread. It's a good idea. This thread always seems to be about ENSO and occasionally the IOD. They matter, but there are drivers that matter more.


So what should the "etc" cover in this thread??
Given that the last decade has been drier than normal in our neck of the woods here in north western Victoria and only a few being El Nino years, the "etc" would seem worthy of discussion in this thread too.

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#1426607 - 24/06/2017 12:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
If you are looking for a negative AAO in the near future then you are out of luck, all indications that the AAO will remain in positive (eg more high pressure systems around southern Australia) for the next 2-3 weeks at least:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index_mrf.shtml

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#1426615 - 24/06/2017 19:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: sparraz]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: sparraz
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: MGD
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

You should start that thread. It's a good idea. This thread always seems to be about ENSO and occasionally the IOD. They matter, but there are drivers that matter more.


So what should the "etc" cover in this thread??
Given that the last decade has been drier than normal in our neck of the woods here in north western Victoria and only a few being El Nino years, the "etc" would seem worthy of discussion in this thread too.

This thread is about climate driver discussion, meaning all of it (I would have thought).

In answer to the question regarding the SAM, ENSO, and IOD, the “issue” is probably the SAM. To “undo” this situation I think requires a realignment of the sub-tropical ridge, allowing a SW-NE frontal passage and drop in isoheight anomalies (depth) near Southern Australia.


Edited by Seira (24/06/2017 19:38)

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#1426616 - 24/06/2017 20:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Bottom line is the thread content is meant to be reflected in the title. To be honest mad , one sub-forum has already been lost to the archives!


Edited by Seira (24/06/2017 20:02)

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#1426669 - 25/06/2017 23:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: retired weather man]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1746
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
marakai -
Re your comparison with thermometers. I have an expensive Davis Pro 2 and also use 5 mercury thermometers, one of which measures grass temps. In hanging mercury thermometers onto the Davis at night, they are regularly 0.4 to 0.7 deg colder than the Davis.

I even purchased an upgraded thermometer sensor for the Davis for $260( apparently the standard ones supplied with the unit at purchase are not as accurate particularly in measuring humidity ). This new sensor made no difference and still read high.
Then I got 2 el cheapo electronic units from Bunnings just for testing purposes in various locations. These too registered higher than the mercury ones, but not quite as much.
As the mercury ones were used for centuries and the electronic ones only for a few decades now, which ones are technically correct.


In reality ...does it really matter ?

When the anomaly is based upon a sliding decal scale, it is all relative anyway.
IE: pointless.
When it media matters to termites dicks of a degree in measurements of temperature scale it is beyond reason really.


But in today's world that seems to be the reality of reporting. 100ths of a degree really do matter.

Of course there is no real total global measurement, everyone concerned with the current Global Mean conveniently ignores the previous Global mean that inconveniently denotes a higher global average than current. But then we best not report on that right?

30 year average means while being the benchmarks are quite inconvenient when used as an empirical measure to compare recent temperatures.

Empirical Measurements are sooo inconvenient when it comes to measuring actual climate change over the historical record.

What was the 30 year benchmark 50 years ago ?

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#1426684 - 26/06/2017 13:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: marakai]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1877
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
marakai -
Re your comparison with thermometers. I have an expensive Davis Pro 2 and also use 5 mercury thermometers, one of which measures grass temps. In hanging mercury thermometers onto the Davis at night, they are regularly 0.4 to 0.7 deg colder than the Davis.

I even purchased an upgraded thermometer sensor for the Davis for $260( apparently the standard ones supplied with the unit at purchase are not as accurate particularly in measuring humidity ). This new sensor made no difference and still read high.
Then I got 2 el cheapo electronic units from Bunnings just for testing purposes in various locations. These too registered higher than the mercury ones, but not quite as much.
As the mercury ones were used for centuries and the electronic ones only for a few decades now, which ones are technically correct.


In reality ...does it really matter ?

When the anomaly is based upon a sliding decal scale, it is all relative anyway.
IE: pointless.
When it media matters to termites dicks of a degree in measurements of temperature scale it is beyond reason really.


But in today's world that seems to be the reality of reporting. 100ths of a degree really do matter.

Of course there is no real total global measurement, everyone concerned with the current Global Mean conveniently ignores the previous Global mean that inconveniently denotes a higher global average than current. But then we best not report on that right?

30 year average means while being the benchmarks are quite inconvenient when used as an empirical measure to compare recent temperatures.

Empirical Measurements are sooo inconvenient when it comes to measuring actual climate change over the historical record.

What was the 30 year benchmark 50 years ago ?



You've just said the 30 year benchmark 50 years ago was higher than the current 30-year but then you say you don't know what it was. If this is true I would be interested to see the data that shows your point. I've looked it up on Google but can't find any info.


Edited by Nature's Fury (26/06/2017 13:20)

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#1426722 - 27/06/2017 06:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2751
Loc: Buderim
The central Pacific continues to warm, with ninos 4 and nino 3.4 reaching their highest value of the year so far.

Sooner or later the predictions of a cooling trend will be correct....

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#1426749 - 27/06/2017 11:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2083
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Pretty sure some slight warming is still expected to happen before a predicted slow drop.

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#1426779 - 27/06/2017 21:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: MGD
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

In answer to the question regarding the SAM, ENSO, and IOD, the “issue” is probably the SAM. To “undo” this situation I think requires a realignment of the sub-tropical ridge, allowing a SW-NE frontal passage and drop in isoheight anomalies (depth) near Southern Australia.

Bold - Which is what is happening right now smile .

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#1426826 - 28/06/2017 15:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Pity the Indian Ocean won't be delivering much moisture into any potential systems until it warms up again.

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#1426836 - 28/06/2017 16:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
So this current rain over northern nsw is MJO related. Well how bout that!

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#1426853 - 28/06/2017 20:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Not ruling any weather/climate features/dynamics out...just considering the possibilities, none of which guarantee anything either which way...it's my views without any references, which like anyone else voicing their views on here, makes it my opinion, pure and simple!


Edited by Seira (28/06/2017 21:02)

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#1426924 - 29/06/2017 22:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Nature's Fury]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1746
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
marakai -
Re your comparison with thermometers. I have an expensive Davis Pro 2 and also use 5 mercury thermometers, one of which measures grass temps. In hanging mercury thermometers onto the Davis at night, they are regularly 0.4 to 0.7 deg colder than the Davis.

I even purchased an upgraded thermometer sensor for the Davis for $260( apparently the standard ones supplied with the unit at purchase are not as accurate particularly in measuring humidity ). This new sensor made no difference and still read high.
Then I got 2 el cheapo electronic units from Bunnings just for testing purposes in various locations. These too registered higher than the mercury ones, but not quite as much.
As the mercury ones were used for centuries and the electronic ones only for a few decades now, which ones are technically correct.


In reality ...does it really matter ?

When the anomaly is based upon a sliding decal scale, it is all relative anyway.
IE: pointless.
When it media matters to termites dicks of a degree in measurements of temperature scale it is beyond reason really.


But in today's world that seems to be the reality of reporting. 100ths of a degree really do matter.

Of course there is no real total global measurement, everyone concerned with the current Global Mean conveniently ignores the previous Global mean that inconveniently denotes a higher global average than current. But then we best not report on that right?

30 year average means while being the benchmarks are quite inconvenient when used as an empirical measure to compare recent temperatures.

Empirical Measurements are sooo inconvenient when it comes to measuring actual climate change over the historical record.

What was the 30 year benchmark 50 years ago ?



You've just said the 30 year benchmark 50 years ago was higher than the current 30-year but then you say you don't know what it was. If this is true I would be interested to see the data that shows your point. I've looked it up on Google but can't find any info.


Well as you no doubt know, the Temperatures we hear about/reported on by the MSM are all relative to a 30 year "Climate period" which supposedly moves along on ten year timescales, the so called 30 Yr average as in 1961-1990 etc.

Commonly called an "Anomaly" IE temperatures outside the norm one way or another of the chosen 30 yr climate period temperature "average" are those that make the headlines.

When you hear or read about the "Hottest year Evar" it is not actually the hottest year ever, it is based as an anomaly against/outside the global 30 yr average.

So what is the 30 year Global average ? Well that depends on who you listen to or where you look.

As you said it is hard to find a definitive answer, it also seems to jump around even when you try to find authoritative answers to the subject.

EG:
The global average temperature of 62.45 degrees Fahrenheit for 1997 was the warmest year on record, surpassing the previous record set in 1995 by 0.15 degrees Fahrenheit. The chart reflects variations from the 30-year average (1961-1990) of the combined land and sea surface temperatures.
http://web.archive.org/web/20150504164341/http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/199713

62.45 Deg Fahranhieiht = 16.916667 Deg C for 1997

"The average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas for 2016 was 0.94°C (1.69°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), surpassing the previous record warmth of 2015 by 0.04°C (0.07°F"
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201613

13.9 + .94 C = 14.84 C for 2016 right?

So which one is correct ? 62.45 F in 1997 or 58.69 F in 2016 ?

It is hard as hell to actually pin down the " 30 yr Climate period" mean global temperature (and why?) but the above two examples from the one organization alone should show the fallacy of the hottest year evar hyperbowle (sic).

Another point to make is what actually is the "perfect" Global temperature with which to judge anomalies against, and how are such figures reached with the vast majority of the planet lacking in reliable records ? Seriously Global Ocean Temperature measured to within 100ths of a degree ?...LMFAO

As stated previously, all the hoo haa about 100ths and thousandths of a single degree based on less than fifty years of apparent reliable records is, is, Well I got this Bridge in Sydney Australia, look's like a coat Hanger and it's going cheap....

Do yourselves a favour and go check out some of the supposed Global mean temperatures referenced against some of the "Gurus" of Climate Science.

Quote:
The British readings showed that the average global temperature in 1988 was 0.612 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the long-term average for the period 1950 through 1979, which is a base for comparing global temperatures. The average worldwide temperature for that 30-year period is roughly 59 degrees Fahrenheit, the British researchers said.

The 1988 average temperature was 0.018 degrees higher than the average for 1987, the previous high year.


http://www.nytimes.com/1989/02/04/us/global-warmth-in-88-is-found-to-set-a-record.html?mcubz=2

59 deg F to C = 15 C ? = 0.16 higher than the supposed record high for 2016 right ?

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#1426926 - 29/06/2017 22:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I think the SAM is about to get a bit angry eek . See synoptics.

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#1426928 - 29/06/2017 22:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: retired weather man]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1746
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
marakai -
Re your comparison with thermometers. I have an expensive Davis Pro 2 and also use 5 mercury thermometers, one of which measures grass temps. In hanging mercury thermometers onto the Davis at night, they are regularly 0.4 to 0.7 deg colder than the Davis.

I even purchased an upgraded thermometer sensor for the Davis for $260( apparently the standard ones supplied with the unit at purchase are not as accurate particularly in measuring humidity ). This new sensor made no difference and still read high.
Then I got 2 el cheapo electronic units from Bunnings just for testing purposes in various locations. These too registered higher than the mercury ones, but not quite as much.

As the mercury ones were used for centuries and the electronic ones only for a few decades now, which ones are technically correct.


Mate, I'd think that you might have a better idea about that then I ever could/would.
One thing that strikes me though is that these electronic devices are run by batteries, are bulkier, and as such might well create/collect a little ambient heat within the device itself, even if just a little.
I notice the difference here on the farm just hanging a quality mercury thermometer off a wire in the open in the shade as opposed to near/against wood even.

As for which ones are more reliable ? No doubt the ones that are able to measure a Gnat's erection distribution profile are more accurate for sure, but then, you could probably profile the erection distribution of Gnats a whole lot clearer than you could global average Temperature where it really matters.

Personally, I like the tried and true toxic mercury old school method of seeing just how cold it gets at night where I live, and if it is a Gnats erection out of whack....No worries at all.

Come to think of it RWM, I think there might be a study grant in there somewhere, does the battery operation of weather monitoring station's affect the temperature recording of such stations ?

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