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#1426937 - 30/06/2017 08:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4265
Loc: Wynnum
I am in negotiation with BoM to try to purchase official liquid in glass thermometers which are now surplus to requirements as all BoM stations have been fully automatic since April last year.

If successful I will do comparison tests with my upgraded Davis Pro 2 to see what the results are.

When speaking to the Davis rep. he said that all electronic thermometers have a so called " sweet spot ", whatever that means. He said the Davis " sweet spot " is around the 20deg C mark.

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 6.8m.


Edited by retired weather man (30/06/2017 08:10)
Edit Reason: addition
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Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33)YTD 702.0(841.0)

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#1426940 - 30/06/2017 08:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1113
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: Seira
I think the SAM is about to get a bit angry eek . See synoptics.


Could you please supply a link to that data Seira if that's OK?

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#1426944 - 30/06/2017 09:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: retired weather man]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2634
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
I am in negotiation with BoM to try to purchase official liquid in glass thermometers which are now surplus to requirements as all BoM stations have been fully automatic since April last year.

If successful I will do comparison tests with my upgraded Davis Pro 2 to see what the results are.

When speaking to the Davis rep. he said that all electronic thermometers have a so called " sweet spot ", whatever that means. He said the Davis " sweet spot " is around the 20deg C mark.

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 6.8m.


I just upgraded my station from the Vue to Vantagepro2 Plus so would be very interested in your findings RWM. I also would love to know what they mean by "sweet spot"

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#1426954 - 30/06/2017 11:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1618
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
I recently bought a min max thermometer from a farm on line shop and found it way out will have to have a closer look a whether i can adjust the tubes . I was going to use it for grass temps. Sorry about being off topic.
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#1427004 - 30/06/2017 18:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6514
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
No meter should have an accuracy(?) "sweet spot" within the range its intended for.

At the power station I work at, imagine if our generated power revenue meter had a "sweet spot" on its range? - wouldn't go down to well with the investors!

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#1427023 - 30/06/2017 20:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: pete28]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7037
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: pete28
Originally Posted By: Seira
I think the SAM is about to get a bit angry eek . See synoptics.


Could you please supply a link to that data Seira if that's OK?

Sure smile ... notice where the forecast increase is at the end the graph...similar to what occurred in early-to-mid May.

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#1427255 - 03/07/2017 16:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2064
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
The current 12-month humidity-temperature cycle

A clear cycle of humidity anomaly leading temperature anomaly has been in progress at Manilla NSW for the two years to this date. The cycle. with a twelve month period and a large amplitude,is not related to ENSO.
In this graph, I have marked the months of peak anomalies of humidity and temperature in green. The cycle forms ellipses on the graph, with a clockwise trajectory.


The cycles began in June 2015, with humidity decreasing (up) and temperature increasing (right).
Peak aridity came in November 2015, followed by peak heat in February 2016.
Peak humidity came in June 2016, followed by peak cold in August-September 2016.
Peak aridity came in November 2016, followed by peak heat in February 2017 (uncertain because that data point is not fully smoothed).
Recent partly smoothed or unsmoothed data points suggest that temperature and humidity anomalies, when smoothed, will be like those of a year earlier.

This graph is modified from one of a set of six in this blog post.
Each graph has the anomaly of daily maximum temperature on the x-axis. Three other measures of moisture anomaly are plotted: rainfall, cloudiness, and daily temperature range. All show similar elliptical patterns.
Two other measures of temperature anomaly, daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature, show anti-clockwise ellipses, as they lag several months behind daily maximum temperature.

This transitory cycle has distorted the normal annual cycle of seasons at Manilla, as discussed here.
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#1427407 - 04/07/2017 19:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2023
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Latest ENSO wraupup from BOM

Quote:
The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently neutral. Most climate models indicate the Pacific is likely to remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of 2017.

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#1427503 - 05/07/2017 21:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2064
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Originally Posted By: RC
Latest ENSO wraupup from BOM

Quote:
The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently neutral. Most climate models indicate the Pacific is likely to remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of 2017.


I guess I must be imagining those climate cycles at Manilla, then.
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#1427511 - 06/07/2017 08:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Surly Bond]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
I must admit to not reading anything much about your experiments at Manilla. But how does the BOMs statement contradict your situation?

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#1427528 - 06/07/2017 14:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2064
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Hi, Adon.
I don't think BoM ever publicly reviews the success or failure of their seasonal predictions based on ENSO etc.
From their statement that ENSO is likely to "remain" neutral, I infer that they observe that it has been neutral for some time.
I see a remarkable mismatch between that and the 24 months of vigorous climate cycles that I have observed at Manilla.

I wonder why none of those posting to this thread have had anything to say about the degree of influence, if any, that the Climate Drivers of the title have had on the weather that we have actually had.
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#1427531 - 06/07/2017 16:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7037
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Influences of the Equatorial WES Feedback, Southern Annular Mode, Clausius-Clapeyron Feedback, Planetary and Gravity Waves, Atomic Weight Gas Differences, Bjerknes Feedback, Walker Circulation, Thermohaline Circulation, MJO, Monsoon and IOD, shifting ITCZ, Polar Stratospheric Clouds, Stratospheric Polar Vortex, ITF...


Edited by Seira (06/07/2017 16:17)

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#1427533 - 06/07/2017 16:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Surly Bond]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17725
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Surly Bond

I wonder why none of those posting to this thread have had anything to say about the degree of influence, if any, that the Climate Drivers of the title have had on the weather that we have actually had.


There have been numerous posts regarding the influence of SAM (AAO) and the IOD recently. The former would appear to be having the most telling effect on the country over the past couple of months, particularly the south with a persistent high pressure centre in the middle of NSW.
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#1427537 - 06/07/2017 16:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
I would say that the IOD would have also have been contributing and I think it may take over as the main driver for a large chuck of the continent

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#1427538 - 06/07/2017 16:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2064
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
To ColdFront
I'm sorry, I must have missed those posts. Not having studied any of the drivers in depth (except perhaps ENSO and the PDO), I just skim posts looking for any statements of observed effects. Like "In the last 3 months the SAM has clearly made the x district drier, as was predicted." Or "clearly hasn't", as the case may be.

To Seira
That is an impressive list of Drivers.
Did our climate respond to any of them lately? How?
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#1427540 - 06/07/2017 17:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: adon]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17725
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: adon
I would say that the IOD would have also have been contributing and I think it may take over as the main driver for a large chuck of the continent


Absolutely, though they seem to be tied to some degree.

For those not too familiar with SAM I found THIS
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#1427541 - 06/07/2017 17:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
I did a write up on SAM a while ago now, for those who are interested.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/southern-annular-mode.html

POAMA shows SAM going to a neutral phase in the next few weeks. I reckon it will go somewhat Negative after that. Would improve the rainfall and snowfall situation for SE Australia.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (06/07/2017 17:19)
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#1427543 - 06/07/2017 17:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 469
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
ENSO isn't our main climate driver. But you only have to go back to 2011 to see the impact it can have.

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#1427548 - 06/07/2017 19:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7037
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Surly Bond
To Seira
That is an impressive list of Drivers.
Did our climate respond to any of them lately? How?

My current view (i.e. opinion) is smile :

ITCZ = shifted north towards Darwin, harder to get northern humidity in-feeds in June.
Sub-tropical Ridge (STR) = generated a gap between 576- and 540- thickness contours, allowing cool, dry air inland.
Clausius-Clapeyron Feedback = Decreased humidity and increased temperature differences in the east. Almost reverse in the west. Greater diurnal temperature differences because the 576 was cut off from southern Australia.
Southern Annular Mode = clipped a STR-gap in early July, allowing westerlies through and changing the regional wind patterns. STR majorly impacted by SAM because STR-gap provides impetus for tropical infeed drifting west-to-east on ITCZ, and Indonesian Through Flow north of Australia. In-feeds can even “sit” on a STR.
WES (Wind-Evaporation-SST) Feedback = Went with the ITCZ shift (?) cause-effect research to be investigated = winds at 90 degrees to ITCZ, possibly contributing to mesoscale ocean eddy-waves (near historical ENSO “peak” line), disrupt ENSO pattern (?).

Stratospheric Polar Vortex = related to planetary/gravity waves being “propelled” into stratosphere near ITCZ, strong thunderstorms, cyclonic activity, mountains ranges (South America) (earlier 2017). Waves cool as they ascend into stratosphere above ITCZ, maintaining this temperature difference. Waves driven polar-ward by stratospheric jets/tropopause jets, then descend on polar cell higher-pressure systems. Polar stratospheric cooling, may reverse when ITCZ shifts north/south. Stratospheric cooling “cut off” in stratosphere by jets, so must descend further (towards surface and out towards westerlies), thus completing “cycle,” some unknowns here. Stratospheric plume into troposphere increases marginally in temperature (at South Pole). Affects Polar Stratospheric Cloud formation by interfering with/disrupting Ozone Cycle. Generates a “cocoon” of lower temperature stratospheric air at polar latitudes. Both STR-gap and reinvigorated SAM could disrupt this cocoon.


Edited by Seira (06/07/2017 19:08)

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#1427555 - 06/07/2017 20:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
I did a write up on SAM a while ago now, for those who are interested.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/southern-annular-mode.html

POAMA shows SAM going to a neutral phase in the next few weeks. I reckon it will go somewhat Negative after that. Would improve the rainfall and snowfall situation for SE Australia.


It may improve the chances of getting fronts coming through but looking at the massive cold spot off the NW coast of Australia whether the fronts have any moisture to hook into will be the question.

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